Toledo at Illinois Game Matchup
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Illinois Fighting IlliniIllinois logo
Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Illinois -7 (45.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Illinois 30 - Toledo: 28

 
Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Toledo -5.5    (SP+ -6.5)
PPG only: TOL: 25 - ILL: 26 (51)
ILL Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
TOL Travel: 264 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Toledo at Illinois+7.045.5L 28 - 30
Sat 9/9 Toledo vs Texas Southern-40.561.0W 71 - 3
Sat 9/16 Toledo vs San José State-9.056.5W 21 - 17
Sat 9/23 Toledo vs Western Michigan-21.552.5W 49 - 31
Sat 9/30 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-13.048.0W 35 - 33
Sat 10/7 Toledo at Massachusetts-19.055.5W 41 - 24
Sat 10/14 Toledo at Ball State-17.548.5W 13 - 6
Sat 10/21 Toledo at Miami (OH)-2.046.5W 21 - 17
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Toledo vs Buffalo-14.047.0W 31 - 13
Wed 11/8 Toledo vs Eastern Michigan-19.545.5W 49 - 23
Tue 11/14 Toledo at Bowling Green-9.548.5W 32 - 31
Fri 11/24 Toledo at Central Michigan-12.554.5W 32 - 17
Sat 12/2 Toledo vs Miami (OH)-8.546.0L 14 - 23
Sat 12/30 Toledo vs Wyoming+4.543.5L 15 - 16
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Illinois's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Illinois vs Toledo-7.045.5W 30 - 28
Fri 9/8 Illinois at Kansas+3.557.5L 23 - 34
Sat 9/16 Illinois vs Penn State+14.047.5L 13 - 30
Sat 9/23 Illinois vs Florida Atlantic-16.045.5W 23 - 17
Sat 9/30 Illinois at Purdue+1.054.0L 19 - 44
Fri 10/6 Illinois vs Nebraska-3.543.0L 7 - 20
Sat 10/14 Illinois at Maryland+13.552.0W 27 - 24
Sat 10/21 Illinois vs Wisconsin+3.040.5L 21 - 25
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Illinois at Minnesota+1.543.0W 27 - 26
Sat 11/11 Illinois vs Indiana-4.543.5W 48 - 45
Sat 11/18 Illinois at Iowa+2.533.5L 13 - 15
Sat 11/25 Illinois vs Northwestern-5.046.5L 43 - 45
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

TOL's OC Mike Hallett vs ILL's DC Aaron Henry     ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. vs TOL's DC Vince Kehres

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL.1943%28.344%317843%2254.23.0734%23.236%34%3.9755.41.91.6
ILL.1544%28.343%3.0716845%2093.37-.0233%21.730%36%2.259.11.22.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ILL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1428.322.242.8%4.231.9224031782254.355%44%44%43%16%.19
ILL Defense1321.717.632.8%2.22.5 - - - - - 45%53%30%36%22%-.02
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1423.221.334.2%3.971.6 - - - - - 51%48%36%34%18%.07
ILL Offense1328.33243.8%3.371.221377168209454%46%43%45%13%.15

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1429:312241%59%6.755.41.91.65.52.2229.6
Illinois1332:4121.238%48%6.459.11.22.56.12.1130.1
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1455%44%41.4177.84.323.14376%10%0.92
ILL Defense1345%30% - - - - -.032.6450%11%1.1
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1451%36% - - - - .13.0483%10%1.08
ILL Offense1354%43%41.9167.7418.083.0772%10%0.85

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1444%43%17.631.4224.97.212.83115.351.732%30%.325%2.2
ILL Defense1353%36% - - - - - - 24.071.436%23%.0511%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1448%34% - - - - - - 12.081.637%23%.098%2
ILL Offense1346%45%2130.2209.46.910155.251.430%32%.242%1.7

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 7.27 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Toledo's SP+ Ratings
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 506.5
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 7.27   Illinois: 1.71

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 4.0   Illinois: -2.6




Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 1.71 #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
2023 Talent Rating: 658.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80

Illinois's SP+ Ratings
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Illinois 26
Toledo 25

Projected Total Points: 51
Illinois Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/02Illinois30Toledo28IllinoisIllinois -7Toledo45.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Illinois101 Overs
Toledo010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#29) Toledo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.27 #29
Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35
Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90

Toledo     Ratings Matchup     Illinois
Power #29
#63
Off #30
#47
Def #24
#104
Talent #82
#62
SP+ #51
#75
SP+ Off #65
#90
SP+ Def #35
#49

Rematch from Week 1
Illinois -7.0 (45.5)
Illinois won vs Toledo this year (30-28)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Toledo in 2023 (30-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 84° - Wind: 10 mph


Team Information
Injuries: TOL | ILL
Depth Chart: TOL | ILL
Rosters: TOL | ILL
(#63) Illinois Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.71 #63
Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49
Talent Rating: 658.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80





  
Toledo's OC Mike Hallett
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Illinois's OC Barry Lunney Jr.
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Toledo's DC Vince Kehres
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Illinois's DC Aaron Henry
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