New Mexico State at Liberty Game Matchup
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty FlamesLiberty logo
Saturday, September 9th 2023 (6:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -9 (54.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Liberty 33 - New Mexico State: 17  (Conference USA)

 
Aggies (10 - 5) (11 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (9 - 8)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (13 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 5.6 (#20)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
LIB 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Liberty -8.5    (SP+ -11)
PPG only: NMSU: 23 - LIB: 33 (56)
LIB Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
NMSU Travel: 1597 miles, 2 hrs behind
Flames (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (32 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#7)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
New Mexico State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/26 New Mexico State vs Massachusetts-7.045.5L 30 - 41
Sat 9/2 New Mexico State vs Western Illinois-21.055.0W 58 - 21
Sat 9/9 New Mexico State at Liberty+9.054.5L 17 - 33
Sat 9/16 New Mexico State at New Mexico+2.552.0W 27 - 17
Sat 9/23 New Mexico State at Hawai'i+4.054.5L 17 - 20
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4 New Mexico State vs Florida International-6.549.5W 34 - 17
Wed 10/11 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston-4.543.0W 27 - 13
Wed 10/18 New Mexico State at UTEP-3.048.5W 28 - 7
Tue 10/24 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+3.055.0W 27 - 24
Sat 11/4 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.055.5W 13 - 7
Sat 11/11 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+4.555.5W 38 - 29
Sat 11/18 New Mexico State at Auburn+25.548.5W 31 - 10
Sat 11/25 New Mexico State vs Jacksonville State-2.048.5W 20 - 17
Fri 12/1 New Mexico State at Liberty+10.554.0L 35 - 49
Sat 12/16 New Mexico State vs Fresno State-3.052.5L 10 - 37
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Liberty's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Liberty vs Bowling Green-8.548.5W 34 - 24
Sat 9/9 Liberty vs New Mexico State-9.054.5W 33 - 17
Sat 9/16 Liberty at Buffalo-2.554.0W 55 - 27
Sat 9/23 Liberty at Florida International-10.054.0W 38 - 6
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/5 Liberty vs Sam Houston-21.046.5W 21 - 16
Tue 10/10 Liberty at Jacksonville State-7.059.5W 31 - 13
Tue 10/17 Liberty vs Middle Tennessee-16.056.5W 42 - 35
Tue 10/24 Liberty at Western Kentucky-4.061.5W 42 - 29
Sat 11/4 Liberty vs Louisiana Tech-16.558.0W 56 - 30
Sat 11/11 Liberty vs Old Dominion-13.558.5W 38 - 10
Sat 11/18 Liberty vs Massachusetts-26.564.5W 49 - 25
Sat 11/25 Liberty at UTEP-18.054.5W 42 - 28
Fri 12/1 Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.554.0W 49 - 35
Mon 1/1 Liberty vs Oregon+18.571.5L 6 - 45
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

NMSU's OC Tim Beck vs LIB's DC Jack Curtis     LIB's OC Newland Isaac vs NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU.1838%21.640%2.8816236%1694.18.1643%36.347%40%3.8657.41.41.2
LIB.1541%28.846%3.2217238%2173.61.136%23.538%36%3.5753.52.12.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1321.612.637.7%4.181.4173311621694.656%43%40%36%19%.18
LIB Defense1323.522.336.2%3.572.2 - - - - - 51%47%38%36%20%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1336.338.443%3.861.2 - - - - - 53%46%47%40%17%.16
LIB Offense1328.832.341.4%3.612.1203891722174.650%48%46%38%19%.15

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1328:5116.639%73%6.557.41.41.25.52.1128.7
Liberty1328:3720.437%48%6.253.52.12.28.43.2131.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1356%40%34.9161.64.624.132.8884%11%1.08
LIB Defense1351%38% - - - - .082.5975%14%1.06
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1353%47% - - - - .173.1178%11%0.9
LIB Offense1350%46%37.8172.44.624.173.2268%13%1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1343%36%12.223.5169.27.213.81813.251.935%30%.328%2
LIB Defense1347%36% - - - - - - 14.191.736%27%.267%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1346%40% - - - - - - 7.211.530%30%.376%2
LIB Offense1348%38%17.630.4216.57.112.32115.221.631%26%.236%2.2

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: 0.03 #60
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
2023 Talent Rating: 252.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
New Mexico State's 2023 Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

New Mexico State's SP+ Ratings
New Mexico State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 300
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 0.03   Liberty: 8.67

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: 1.0   Liberty: 11.8




Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 8.67 #30
Liberty's Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Liberty's Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
2023 Talent Rating: 398.00 #114
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Liberty's 2023 Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30

Liberty's SP+ Ratings
Liberty's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 300
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.6
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.4

New Mexico State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 5
Record vs Spread: 11 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 33
New Mexico State 23

Projected Total Points: 56
Liberty Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Liberty's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 8 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07New Mexico State24Liberty30LibertyLiberty -22.5New Mexico State54.5Under
202309/09Liberty33New Mexico State17LibertyLiberty -9Liberty54.5Under
202312/01Liberty49New Mexico State35LibertyLiberty -10.5Liberty54.0Over
202211/26Liberty14New Mexico State49New Mexico StateLiberty -24.0New Mexico State51.0Over
201910/05New Mexico State13Liberty20LibertyLiberty -4.5Liberty62.5Under
201911/30Liberty49New Mexico State28LibertyLiberty -14.5Liberty68.0Over
201810/06New Mexico State49Liberty41New Mexico StateLiberty -3New Mexico State64.0Over
201811/24Liberty28New Mexico State21LibertyLiberty -7Push72.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Liberty644 Overs
New Mexico State234 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 35 - 23 - 12 - 1
Road Teams3 - 52 - 51 - 21 - 3

(#60) New Mexico State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.03 #60
Offense Rating: 23.21 #17
Defense Rating: 10.44 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #62
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #46
Talent Rating: 252.00 #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 9.40 - 5.60

New Mexico State     Ratings Matchup     Liberty
Power #60
#30
Off #17
#3
Def #77
#42
Talent #128
#114
SP+ #62
#21
SP+ Off #75
#9
SP+ Def #46
#51

Rematch from Week 14
Liberty -10.5 (54.0)
Liberty won vs New Mexico State this year (49-35)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat New Mexico State last year (30-24)
Liberty beat New Mexico State in 2023 (49-35)
New Mexico State beat Liberty in 2022 (49-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NMSU | LIB
Depth Chart: NMSU | LIB
Rosters: NMSU | LIB
(#30) Liberty Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 8.67 #30
Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51
Talent Rating: 398.00 #114
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30





  
New Mexico State's OC Tim Beck
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Liberty's OC Newland Isaac
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New Mexico State's DC Nate Dreiling
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Liberty's DC Jack Curtis
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