Air Force vs Sam Houston Game Matchup

Air Force Falcons vs Sam Houston Bearkats

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -13.5 (36.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 13 - Sam Houston: 3

Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 93.9° (34% Hum)
Our Line: Air Force -9 (SP+ -18.5)
PPG only: AFA: 20 - SHSU: 24 (44)
AFA Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
AFA Travel: 777 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bearkats (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (85 - 29)
Avg Score : 24 - 21 (21 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Air Force vs Robert Morris	-47.0	51.0	W 42 - 7
Sat 9/9	Air Force vs Sam Houston	-13.5	36.5	W 13 - 3
Fri 9/15	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	45.5	W 39 - 21
Fri 9/22	Air Force at San José State	-6.0	45.5	W 45 - 20
Sat 9/30	Air Force vs San Diego State	-10.5	43.5	W 49 - 10
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Air Force vs Wyoming	-12.5	42.0	W 34 - 27
Sat 10/21	Air Force at Navy	-11.0	34.0	W 17 - 6
Sat 10/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-14.5	47.0	W 30 - 13
Sat 11/4	Air Force vs Army	-18.5	32.0	L 3 - 23
Sat 11/11	Air Force at Hawai'i	-22.5	47.5	L 13 - 27
Sat 11/18	Air Force vs UNLV	-2.5	46.5	L 27 - 31
Fri 11/24	Air Force at Boise State	+6.5	44.5	L 19 - 27
Sat 12/23	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Sam Houston's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Sam Houston at BYU	+19.0	46.5	L 0 - 14
Sat 9/9	Sam Houston vs Air Force	+13.5	36.5	L 3 - 13
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	Sam Houston at Houston	+11.5	37.0	L 7 - 38
Thu 9/28	Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State	+6.5	36.5	L 28 - 35
Thu 10/5	Sam Houston at Liberty	+21.0	46.5	L 16 - 21
Wed 10/11	Sam Houston at New Mexico State	+4.5	43.0	L 13 - 27
Wed 10/18	Sam Houston vs Florida International	-6.0	42.0	L 27 - 33
Wed 10/25	Sam Houston vs UTEP	-4.0	38.5	L 34 - 37
Sat 11/4	Sam Houston vs Kennesaw State	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 21
Sat 11/11	Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech	+8.5	49.5	W 42 - 27
Sat 11/18	Sam Houston at Western Kentucky	+12.5	52.0	L 23 - 28
Sat 11/25	Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee	+3.5	49.5	W 23 - 20

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen vs SHSU's DC Clayton Carlin SHSU's OC Brad Cornelsen vs AFA's DC Brian Knorr

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.3	49%	18.9	50%	3.55	327	39%	70	4.25	.11	39%	23.3	38%	42%	3.77	29.7	1	1.3
SHSU		35%	23.8	41%	2.69	0	30%	0	2.55	.06	35%	20.5	36%	35%	2.98	0	0	0

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SHSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	18.9	19.2	48.5%	4.25	1	20	398	327	70	5.3	87%	13%	50%	39%	10%	.3
SHSU Defense	1	20.5	15.2	35%	2.98	0	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	36%	35%	2884%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	23.3	28.8	39.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	38%	42%	20%	.11
SHSU Offense	1	23.8	21	35.3%	2.55	0	0	0	0	0	0	49%	51%	41%	30%	1398%

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	36:21	20.5	45%	72%	3.9	29.7	1	1.3	5.1	1.8	0	29.6
Sam Houston	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	30.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	87%	50%	61.7	327.2	5.3	37	.28	3.55	84%	8%	0.96
SHSU Defense	1	45%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.04	2.36	70%	2882%	0.91

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.06	62%	13%	1.01
SHSU Offense	1	49%	41%	0	0	0	0	.08	2.69	71%	1396%	1.06

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	13%	39%	3.2	6.7	70.5	10.5	22.3	8	2	.53	2.6	26%	33%	.36	2%	1.9
SHSU Defense	1	54%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	.18	1.7	37%	25%	.22	2%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	45%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.3	33%	24%	.19	7%	2
SHSU Offense	1	51%	30%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-.07	1.6	36%	28%	.26	2%	2.2

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -0.78 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 712.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Air Force's SP+ Ratings
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -0.78 Sam Houston: -9.92

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 5.2 Sam Houston: -13.5

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -9.92 #118
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 11.59 #113
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 8.82 #57
2023 Talent Rating: 202.00 #129
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Sam Houston's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40

Sam Houston's SP+ Ratings
Sam Houston's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #112
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #120
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 300
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Sam Houston 24
Air Force 20

Projected Total Points: 44

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Sam Houston's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/09	Sam Houston	3	Air Force	13	Air Force	Air Force -13.5	Sam Houston	36.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Sam Houston	0	1	0 Overs
Air Force	1	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#69) Air Force Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.78 #69
Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29
Talent Rating: 712.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70

Air Force Ratings Matchup Sam Houston

Power #69

#118

Off #34

#113

Def #34

#57

Talent #43

#129

SP+ #45

#112

SP+ Off #76

#120

SP+ Def #29

#82

Rematch from Week 2
Air Force 13.5 (36.5)
Air Force won at Sam Houston this year (13-3)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Sam Houston in 2023 (13-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in NRG Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 94°

Team Information
Injuries: AFA | SHSU
Depth Chart: AFA | SHSU
Rosters: AFA | SHSU

(#118) Sam Houston Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -9.92 #118
Offense Rating: 11.59 #113
Defense Rating: 8.82 #57
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #112
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82
Talent Rating: 202.00 #129
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Sam Houston's OC Brad Cornelsen

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Air Force's DC Brian Knorr

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sam Houston's DC Clayton Carlin

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD