Liberty at Buffalo Game Matchup

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -2.5 (54.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Liberty 55 - Buffalo: 27

Flames (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#7)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BUFF 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Liberty -15 (SP+ -27)
PPG only: LIB: 28 - BUFF: 26 (54)
LIB Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
LIB Travel: 391 miles

Bulls (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Maurice Linguist (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#106)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Liberty's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Liberty vs Bowling Green	-8.5	48.5	W 34 - 24
Sat 9/9	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-9.0	54.5	W 33 - 17
Sat 9/16	Liberty at Buffalo	-2.5	54.0	W 55 - 27
Sat 9/23	Liberty at Florida International	-10.0	54.0	W 38 - 6
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/5	Liberty vs Sam Houston	-21.0	46.5	W 21 - 16
Tue 10/10	Liberty at Jacksonville State	-7.0	59.5	W 31 - 13
Tue 10/17	Liberty vs Middle Tennessee	-16.0	56.5	W 42 - 35
Tue 10/24	Liberty at Western Kentucky	-4.0	61.5	W 42 - 29
Sat 11/4	Liberty vs Louisiana Tech	-16.5	58.0	W 56 - 30
Sat 11/11	Liberty vs Old Dominion	-13.5	58.5	W 38 - 10
Sat 11/18	Liberty vs Massachusetts	-26.5	64.5	W 49 - 25
Sat 11/25	Liberty at UTEP	-18.0	54.5	W 42 - 28
Fri 12/1	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-10.5	54.0	W 49 - 35
Mon 1/1	Liberty vs Oregon	+18.5	71.5	L 6 - 45

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Buffalo's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Buffalo at Wisconsin	+29.0	52.5	L 17 - 38
Sat 9/9	Buffalo vs Fordham	-23.5	55.5	L 37 - 40
Sat 9/16	Buffalo vs Liberty	+2.5	54.0	L 27 - 55
Sat 9/23	Buffalo at Louisiana	+10.5	57.5	L 38 - 45
Sat 9/30	Buffalo at Akron	+3.0	53.0	W 13 - 10
Sat 10/7	Buffalo vs Central Michigan	+2.5	51.5	W 37 - 13
Sat 10/14	Buffalo vs Bowling Green	-3.0	44.5	L 14 - 24
Sat 10/21	Buffalo at Kent State	-6.5	44.0	W 24 - 6
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Buffalo at Toledo	+14.0	47.0	L 13 - 31
Tue 11/7	Buffalo vs Ohio	+9.5	45.5	L 10 - 20
Wed 11/15	Buffalo at Miami (OH)	+7.5	36.5	L 10 - 23
Tue 11/21	Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan	-6.5	38.5	L 11 - 24

LIB's OC Newland Isaac vs BUFF's DC Robert Wright BUFF's OC DJ Mangas vs LIB's DC Jack Curtis

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB	.15	41%	28.8	46%	3.22	172	38%	217	3.61	.1	36%	23.5	38%	36%	3.57	53.5	2.1	2.2
BUFF	.17	44%	28.8	44%	2.92	140	44%	215	4.06	.27	41%	26.4	40%	44%	3.79	43.5	1.3	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BUFF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Offense	13	28.8	28.8	41.4%	3.61	2.1	20	389	172	217	4.6	50%	48%	46%	38%	19%	.15
BUFF Defense	13	26.4	22.3	41.3%	3.79	2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	40%	44%	25%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Defense	13	23.5	24.4	36.2%	3.57	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	38%	36%	20%	.1
BUFF Offense	13	28.8	38.2	43.6%	4.06	1.3	21	355	140	215	3.6	51%	47%	44%	44%	22%	.17

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Liberty	13	28:37	20.4	37%	48%	6.2	53.5	2.1	2.2	8.4	3.2	1	31.3
Buffalo	13	31:17	20.6	41%	61%	4.7	43.5	1.3	2	6	1.8	1	29.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Offense	13	50%	46%	37.8	172.4	4.6	24	.17	3.22	68%	13%	1.05
BUFF Defense	13	52%	40%	-	-	-	-	.22	2.89	68%	15%	1.33

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Defense	13	51%	38%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.59	75%	14%	1.06
BUFF Offense	13	51%	44%	39.4	140	3.6	22	.06	2.92	71%	12%	0.83

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Offense	13	48%	38%	17.6	30.4	216.5	7.1	12.3	21	15	.22	1.6	31%	26%	.23	6%	2.2
BUFF Defense	13	48%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.36	1.7	34%	31%	.4	10%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Defense	13	47%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.19	1.7	36%	27%	.26	7%	2
BUFF Offense	13	47%	44%	19.2	32.2	215	6.7	11.2	15	8	.33	1.6	31%	35%	.35	9%	2

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 6.67 #30
Liberty's Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Liberty's Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
2023 Talent Rating: 398.00 #114
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Liberty's 2023 Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30
Liberty's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Liberty's SP+ Ratings
Liberty's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 300
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 6.67 Buffalo: -8.23

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 11.8 Buffalo: -15.1

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -8.23 #120
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 8.90 #125
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 8.32 #50
2023 Talent Rating: 394.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Buffalo's 2023 Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40

Buffalo's SP+ Ratings
Buffalo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1 #117
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.3 #125
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #87

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 506.5
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.8
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Liberty's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 28
Buffalo 26

Projected Total Points: 54

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Buffalo's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	01/04	Liberty	7	Buffalo	26	Buffalo	Buffalo -4.5	Buffalo	50.5	Under
2023	09/16	Buffalo	27	Liberty	55	Liberty	Liberty -2.5	Liberty	54.0	Over
2019	09/14	Liberty	35	Buffalo	17	Liberty	Buffalo -6	Liberty	55.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Buffalo	1	1	1 Overs
Liberty	2	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 2
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 0

(#30) Liberty Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.67 #30
Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51
Talent Rating: 398.00 #114
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30

Liberty Ratings Matchup Buffalo

Power #30

#120

Off #3

#125

Def #42

#50

Talent #114

#116

SP+ #21

#117

SP+ Off #9

#125

SP+ Def #51

#87

Rematch from Week 3
Liberty 2.5 (54.0)
Liberty won at Buffalo this year (55-27)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Liberty last year (26-7)
Liberty beat Buffalo in 2023 (55-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 70°

Team Information
Injuries: LIB | BUFF
Depth Chart: LIB | BUFF
Rosters: LIB | BUFF

(#120) Buffalo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -8.23 #120
Offense Rating: 8.90 #125
Defense Rating: 8.32 #50
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1 #117
Offense SP+ Rating: 15.3 #125
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #87
Talent Rating: 394.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 4.60 - 7.40

Liberty's OC Newland Isaac

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Buffalo's OC DJ Mangas

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Liberty's DC Jack Curtis

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Buffalo's DC Robert Wright

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD