Alabama at Mississippi State Game Matchup
Alabama logo Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (9:00 PM EDT)
Alabama -16.5 (45.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Alabama 40 - Mississippi State: 17  (SEC)

 
Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 34 - 17 (28 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Alabama -18.5    (SP+ -24)
PPG only: ALA: 34 - MSST: 22 (56)
ALA Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
ALA Travel: 74 miles
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Greg Knox (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Alabama's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Alabama vs Middle Tennessee-39.552.0W 56 - 7
Sat 9/9 Alabama vs Texas-7.053.0L 24 - 34
Sat 9/16 Alabama at South Florida-34.061.0W 17 - 3
Sat 9/23 Alabama vs Ole Miss-7.056.0W 24 - 10
Sat 9/30 Alabama at Mississippi State-16.545.0W 40 - 17
Sat 10/7 Alabama at Texas A&M-2.545.0W 26 - 20
Sat 10/14 Alabama vs Arkansas-19.045.0W 24 - 21
Sat 10/21 Alabama vs Tennessee-8.547.5W 34 - 20
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Alabama vs LSU-3.061.5W 42 - 28
Sat 11/11 Alabama at Kentucky-10.045.5W 49 - 21
Sat 11/18 Alabama vs Chattanooga-44.554.5W 66 - 10
Sat 11/25 Alabama at Auburn-14.048.0W 27 - 24
Sat 12/2 Alabama vs Georgia+5.056.0W 27 - 24
Mon 1/1 Alabama vs Michigan+2.046.0L 20 - 27
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana-31.559.5W 48 - 7
Sat 9/9 Mississippi State vs Arizona-9.060.0W 31 - 24
Sat 9/16 Mississippi State vs LSU+9.554.0L 14 - 41
Sat 9/23 Mississippi State at South Carolina+6.046.5L 30 - 37
Sat 9/30 Mississippi State vs Alabama+16.545.0L 17 - 40
Sat 10/7 Mississippi State vs Western Michigan-21.554.5W 41 - 28
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Mississippi State at Arkansas+6.546.5W 7 - 3
Sat 10/28 Mississippi State at Auburn+6.540.0L 13 - 27
Sat 11/4 Mississippi State vs Kentucky+5.544.5L 3 - 24
Sat 11/11 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+16.540.5L 10 - 51
Sat 11/18 Mississippi State vs Southern Miss-18.547.5W 41 - 20
Thu 11/23 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+11.056.0L 7 - 17
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

ALA's OC Tommy Rees vs MSST's DC Matt Brock     MSST's OC Kevin Barbay vs ALA's DC Kevin Steele

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA.3347%33.846%2.9519648%2824.78.0639%17.442%36%3.4968.71.21.2
MSST.1946%25.845%2.968247%3104.23.0939%34.141%38%3.5360.81.51.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Offense1333.827.846.9%4.781.2244771962825.644%56%46%48%13%.33
MSST Defense1334.134.939.2%3.531.9 - - - - - 46%53%41%38%18%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Defense1317.422.238.9%3.491.2 - - - - - 47%53%42%36%18%.06
MSST Offense1325.830.746.2%4.231.523393823103.630%70%45%47%16%.19

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Alabama1329:5423.846%60%7.968.71.21.26.52.9331.2
Mississippi State1329:5822.839%52%6.360.81.51.96.42.4531.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Offense1344%46%35.2195.75.626.232.9573%9%1.09
MSST Defense1346%41% - - - - .142.7959%11%1.04
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Defense1347%42% - - - - .092.8568%11%0.94
MSST Offense1330%45%22.882.43.612.122.9660%8%0.89

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Offense1356%48%21.533.7281.58.413.1378.41.730%40%.684%2.4
MSST Defense1353%38% - - - - - - 14.11.634%28%.096%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Defense1353%36% - - - - - - 7.061.433%26%.147%1.9
MSST Offense1370%47%32.848.8310.46.49.5369.221.227%30%.318%2

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 16.78 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
2023 Talent Rating: 1424.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90% #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9

Alabama's SP+ Ratings
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 16.78   Mississippi State: -1.49

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 23.7   Mississippi State: -0.4




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -1.49 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Mississippi State's SP+ Ratings
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Alabama Scoring
Offense: 33.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.8
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 34
Mississippi State 22

Projected Total Points: 56
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/30Mississippi State17Alabama40AlabamaAlabama -16.5Alabama45.0Over
202210/22Alabama30Mississippi State6AlabamaAlabama -21.5Alabama61.5Under
202110/16Mississippi State9Alabama49AlabamaAlabama -17.5Alabama59.5Under
202010/31Alabama41Mississippi State0AlabamaAlabama -32.0Alabama0
201911/16Mississippi State7Alabama38AlabamaAlabama -19Alabama61.0Under
201811/10Alabama24Mississippi State0AlabamaAlabama -21.5Alabama50.0Under
201711/11Mississippi State24Alabama31AlabamaAlabama -14.5Mississippi State50.0Over
201611/12Alabama51Mississippi State3AlabamaAlabama -28.5Alabama52.5Over
201511/14Mississippi State6Alabama31AlabamaAlabama -7Alabama51.5Under
201411/15Alabama25Mississippi State20AlabamaAlabama -6.5Mississippi State0
201311/16Mississippi State7Alabama20AlabamaAlabama -24.5Mississippi State0
201210/27Alabama38Mississippi State7Alabama
201111/12Mississippi State7Alabama24Alabama
201011/13Alabama30Mississippi State10Alabama
200911/14Mississippi State3Alabama31Alabama
200811/15Alabama32Mississippi State7Alabama
200711/10Mississippi State17Alabama12Mississippi State
200611/04Alabama16Mississippi State24Mississippi State
200511/05Mississippi State0Alabama17Alabama
200411/06Alabama30Mississippi State14Alabama
200311/08Mississippi State0Alabama38Alabama
200211/09Alabama28Mississippi State14Alabama
200111/10Alabama24Mississippi State17Alabama
200011/10Mississippi State29Alabama7Mississippi State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State333 Overs
Alabama2185 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 116 - 54 - 12 - 4
Road Teams11 - 135 - 64 - 21 - 4

(#9) Alabama Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 16.78 #9
Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9
Talent Rating: 1424.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90% #1
Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30

Alabama     Ratings Matchup     Mississippi State
Power #9
#84
Off #25
#120
Def #21
#85
Talent #1
#31
SP+ #7
#66
SP+ Off #11
#78
SP+ Def #9
#55

Rematch from Week 5
Alabama 16.5 (45.0)
Alabama won at Mississippi State this year (40-17)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Mississippi State in 2023 (40-17)
Alabama beat Mississippi State in 2022 (30-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 71°

Team Information
Injuries: ALA | MSST
Depth Chart: ALA | MSST
Rosters: ALA | MSST
(#84) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -1.49 #84
Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90





  
Alabama's OC Tommy Rees
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Mississippi State's OC Kevin Barbay
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Alabama's DC Kevin Steele
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Mississippi State's DC Matt Brock
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