Mississippi State at Arkansas Game Matchup
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas logo
Saturday, October 21st 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas -6.5 (46.5) (-278)  Open: -7.0 | 50.5
Mississippi State 7 - Arkansas: 3  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Greg Knox (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSST coming off BYE
Our Line: Arkansas -9    (SP+ -3)
PPG only: MSST: 25 - ARK: 33 (58)
ARK Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
MSST Travel: 355 miles
Razorbacks (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (24 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#75)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana-31.559.5W 48 - 7
Sat 9/9 Mississippi State vs Arizona-9.060.0W 31 - 24
Sat 9/16 Mississippi State vs LSU+9.554.0L 14 - 41
Sat 9/23 Mississippi State at South Carolina+6.046.5L 30 - 37
Sat 9/30 Mississippi State vs Alabama+16.545.0L 17 - 40
Sat 10/7 Mississippi State vs Western Michigan-21.554.5W 41 - 28
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Mississippi State at Arkansas+6.546.5W 7 - 3
Sat 10/28 Mississippi State at Auburn+6.540.0L 13 - 27
Sat 11/4 Mississippi State vs Kentucky+5.544.5L 3 - 24
Sat 11/11 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+16.540.5L 10 - 51
Sat 11/18 Mississippi State vs Southern Miss-18.547.5W 41 - 20
Thu 11/23 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+11.056.0L 7 - 17
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Arkansas's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Arkansas vs Western Carolina-38.061.0W 56 - 13
Sat 9/9 Arkansas vs Kent State-38.057.5W 28 - 6
Sat 9/16 Arkansas vs BYU-9.048.0L 31 - 38
Sat 9/23 Arkansas at LSU+17.555.0L 31 - 34
Sat 9/30 Arkansas vs Texas A&M+6.553.5L 22 - 34
Sat 10/7 Arkansas at Ole Miss+13.061.5L 20 - 27
Sat 10/14 Arkansas at Alabama+19.045.0L 21 - 24
Sat 10/21 Arkansas vs Mississippi State-6.546.5L 3 - 7
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Arkansas at Florida+4.550.0W 39 - 36
Sat 11/11 Arkansas vs Auburn-2.546.5L 10 - 48
Sat 11/18 Arkansas vs Florida International-27.549.5W 44 - 20
Fri 11/24 Arkansas vs Missouri+9.553.5L 14 - 48
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

MSST's OC Kevin Barbay vs ARK's DC Travis Williams     ARK's OC Kenny Guiton vs MSST's DC Matt Brock

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST.1946%25.845%2.968247%3104.23.0939%34.141%38%3.5360.81.51.9
ARK.2646%30.948%3.2323743%2344.18.2543%2545%41%3.6555.61.41.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1325.81946.2%4.231.523393823103.630%70%45%47%16%.19
ARK Defense132528.742.5%3.651.7 - - - - - 48%52%45%41%16%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1334.13339.2%3.531.9 - - - - - 46%53%41%38%18%.09
ARK Offense1330.923.745.6%4.181.4244712372345.160%40%48%43%15%.26

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1329:5822.839%52%6.360.81.51.96.42.4531.7
Arkansas1330:2223.946%45%6.455.61.41.75.63131.8
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1330%45%22.882.43.612.122.9660%8%0.89
ARK Defense1348%45% - - - - .223.0476%10%1.08
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1346%41% - - - - .142.7959%11%1.04
ARK Offense1360%48%46.6237.35.127.143.2371%11%0.98

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1370%47%32.848.8310.46.49.5369.221.227%30%.318%2
ARK Defense1352%41% - - - - - - 9.321.834%34%.56%2.3
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1353%38% - - - - - - 14.11.634%28%.096%1.9
ARK Offense1340%43%17.727.4233.98.513.2267.461.930%36%.515%2.1

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -3.49 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Mississippi State's SP+ Ratings
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -3.49   Arkansas: 5.28

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -0.4   Arkansas: 2.7




Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 5.28 #47
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 16.54 #65
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 8.58 #55
2023 Talent Rating: 808.00 #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 30 #25
Arkansas's 2023 Expected Record: 6.00 - 6.00

Arkansas's SP+ Ratings
Arkansas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.7 #58
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #57
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas 33
Mississippi State 25

Projected Total Points: 58
Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.7
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.7

Arkansas's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Mississippi State25Arkansas58ArkansasArkansas -7.5Arkansas55.0Over
202310/21Arkansas3Mississippi State7Mississippi StateArkansas -6.5Mississippi State46.5Under
202210/08Mississippi State40Arkansas17Mississippi StateMississippi State -8Mississippi State55.5Over
202111/06Arkansas31Mississippi State28ArkansasArkansas -4Mississippi State54.0Over
202010/03Mississippi State14Arkansas21ArkansasMississippi State -16.5Arkansas68.0Under
201911/02Arkansas24Mississippi State54Mississippi StateMississippi State -7Mississippi State59.0Over
201811/17Mississippi State52Arkansas6Mississippi StateMississippi State -22.5Mississippi State49.0Over
201711/18Arkansas21Mississippi State28Mississippi StateMississippi State -14Arkansas56.0Under
201611/19Mississippi State42Arkansas58ArkansasMississippi State -1Arkansas57.5Over
201511/21Arkansas50Mississippi State51Mississippi StateArkansas -3Mississippi State59.0Over
201411/01Mississippi State17Arkansas10Mississippi StateMississippi State -14Arkansas0
201311/23Arkansas17Mississippi State24Mississippi StateMississippi State -3Mississippi State0
201211/17Mississippi State45Arkansas14Mississippi State
201111/19Arkansas44Mississippi State17Arkansas
201011/20Mississippi State31Arkansas38Arkansas
200911/21Arkansas42Mississippi State21Arkansas
200811/22Mississippi State31Arkansas28Mississippi State
200711/17Arkansas45Mississippi State31Arkansas
200611/18Mississippi State14Arkansas28Arkansas
200511/19Arkansas44Mississippi State10Arkansas
200411/20Mississippi State21Arkansas24Arkansas
200311/22Arkansas52Mississippi State6Arkansas
200111/17Arkansas24Mississippi State21Arkansas
200011/17Mississippi State10Arkansas17Arkansas
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas1457 Overs
Mississippi State1073 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 123 - 92 - 61 - 3
Road Teams12 - 129 - 33 - 16 - 2

(#84) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -3.49 #84
Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #32
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Mississippi State     Ratings Matchup     Arkansas
Power #84
#47
Off #120
#65
Def #85
#55
Talent #31
#28
SP+ #66
#58
SP+ Off #78
#57
SP+ Def #55
#69

Rematch from Week 8
Arkansas -6.5 (46.5)
Mississippi State won at Arkansas this year (7-3)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas beat Mississippi State last year (58-25)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2023 (7-3)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2022 (40-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 77°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | ARK
Depth Chart: MSST | ARK
Rosters: MSST | ARK
(#47) Arkansas Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 5.28 #47
Offense Rating: 16.54 #65
Defense Rating: 8.58 #55
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.7 #58
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #57
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69
Talent Rating: 808.00 #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 30 #25
Expected Record: 6.00 - 6.00





  
Mississippi State's OC Kevin Barbay
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Arkansas's OC Kenny Guiton
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

Mississippi State's DC Matt Brock
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arkansas's DC Travis Williams
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD