Mississippi State at Auburn Game Matchup

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Auburn -6.5 (40.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Auburn 27 - Mississippi State: 13 (SEC)

Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Greg Knox (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST 2nd straight Road Game
AUB 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Auburn -12 (SP+ -9)
PPG only: MSST: 24 - AUB: 31 (55)
AUB Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
MSST Travel: 200 miles

Tigers (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 21 (33 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#54)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana	-31.5	59.5	W 48 - 7
Sat 9/9	Mississippi State vs Arizona	-9.0	60.0	W 31 - 24
Sat 9/16	Mississippi State vs LSU	+9.5	54.0	L 14 - 41
Sat 9/23	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+6.0	46.5	L 30 - 37
Sat 9/30	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+16.5	45.0	L 17 - 40
Sat 10/7	Mississippi State vs Western Michigan	-21.5	54.5	W 41 - 28
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+6.5	46.5	W 7 - 3
Sat 10/28	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.5	40.0	L 13 - 27
Sat 11/4	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	+5.5	44.5	L 3 - 24
Sat 11/11	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+16.5	40.5	L 10 - 51
Sat 11/18	Mississippi State vs Southern Miss	-18.5	47.5	W 41 - 20
Thu 11/23	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+11.0	56.0	L 7 - 17

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Auburn's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Auburn vs Massachusetts	-35.0	52.0	W 59 - 14
Sat 9/9	Auburn at California	-5.0	55.5	W 14 - 10
Sat 9/16	Auburn vs Samford	-37.5	62.0	W 45 - 13
Sat 9/23	Auburn at Texas A&M	+9.5	51.0	L 10 - 27
Sat 9/30	Auburn vs Georgia	+14.0	44.5	L 20 - 27
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Auburn at LSU	+11.0	60.0	L 18 - 48
Sat 10/21	Auburn vs Ole Miss	+6.5	55.5	L 21 - 28
Sat 10/28	Auburn vs Mississippi State	-6.5	40.0	W 27 - 13
Sat 11/4	Auburn at Vanderbilt	-12.5	50.0	W 31 - 15
Sat 11/11	Auburn at Arkansas	+2.5	46.5	W 48 - 10
Sat 11/18	Auburn vs New Mexico State	-25.5	48.5	L 10 - 31
Sat 11/25	Auburn vs Alabama	+14.0	48.0	L 24 - 27
Sat 12/30	Auburn vs Maryland	-4.0	47.5	L 13 - 31

MSST's OC Kevin Barbay vs AUB's DC Ron Roberts AUB's OC Philip Montgomery vs MSST's DC Matt Brock

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	.19	46%	25.8	45%	2.96	82	47%	310	4.23	.09	39%	34.1	41%	38%	3.53	60.8	1.5	1.9
AUB	.2	39%	27.8	43%	3.01	206	33%	173	3.74	.18	42%	21.3	49%	36%	4.57	57.3	1.8	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AUB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	13	25.8	19	46.2%	4.23	1.5	23	393	82	310	3.6	30%	70%	45%	47%	16%	.19
AUB Defense	12	21.3	20.8	42.2%	4.57	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	49%	36%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	13	34.1	33	39.2%	3.53	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	41%	38%	18%	.09
AUB Offense	12	27.8	33.1	39%	3.74	1.8	18	379	206	173	5.1	59%	40%	43%	33%	19%	.2

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	13	29:58	22.8	39%	52%	6.3	60.8	1.5	1.9	6.4	2.4	5	31.7
Auburn	12	30:13	18.1	36%	59%	7.5	57.3	1.8	1.5	5.2	2.2	1	29.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	13	30%	45%	22.8	82.4	3.6	12	.12	2.96	60%	8%	0.89
AUB Defense	12	49%	49%	-	-	-	-	.23	3.14	76%	10%	1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	13	46%	41%	-	-	-	-	.14	2.79	59%	11%	1.04
AUB Offense	12	59%	43%	40.7	205.8	5.1	25	.25	3.01	86%	13%	1.24

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	13	70%	47%	32.8	48.8	310.4	6.4	9.5	36	9	.22	1.2	27%	30%	.31	8%	2
AUB Defense	12	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.13	1.5	34%	32%	.35	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	13	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.1	1.6	34%	28%	.09	6%	1.9
AUB Offense	12	40%	33%	13.3	25.7	172.7	6.7	13	9	12	.14	1.8	37%	27%	.25	5%	2.2

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -3.49 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Mississippi State's SP+ Ratings
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -3.49 Auburn: 8.28

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -0.4 Auburn: 8.1

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 8.28 #32
Auburn's Offense Rating: 16.07 #70
Auburn's Defense Rating: 7.76 #44
2023 Talent Rating: 830.00 #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #15
Auburn's 2023 Expected Record: 7.30 - 5.70

Auburn's SP+ Ratings
Auburn's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #24

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Auburn 31
Mississippi State 24

Projected Total Points: 55

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.1
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.8

Auburn's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/28	Auburn	27	Mississippi State	13	Auburn	Auburn -6.5	Auburn	40.0	Push
2022	11/05	Mississippi State	39	Auburn	33	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -12.5	Auburn	50.5	Over
2021	11/13	Auburn	34	Mississippi State	43	Mississippi State	Auburn -6	Mississippi State	51.0	Over
2020	12/12	Mississippi State	10	Auburn	24	Auburn	Auburn -5.5	Auburn	50.5	Under
2019	09/28	Auburn	56	Mississippi State	23	Auburn	Auburn -7.5	Auburn	47.0	Over
2018	10/06	Mississippi State	23	Auburn	9	Mississippi State	Auburn -3	Mississippi State	45.0	Under
2017	09/30	Auburn	49	Mississippi State	10	Auburn	Auburn -7.5	Auburn	51.5	Over
2016	10/08	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	38	Auburn	Mississippi State -1.5	Auburn	55.0	Under
2015	09/26	Auburn	9	Mississippi State	17	Mississippi State	Auburn -3.5	Mississippi State	58.5	Under
2014	10/11	Mississippi State	38	Auburn	23	Mississippi State	Auburn -3	Mississippi State	0
2013	09/14	Auburn	24	Mississippi State	20	Auburn	Auburn -6	Mississippi State	0
2012	09/08	Mississippi State	28	Auburn	10	Mississippi State
2011	09/10	Auburn	41	Mississippi State	34	Auburn
2010	09/09	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	17	Auburn
2009	09/12	Auburn	49	Mississippi State	24	Auburn
2008	09/13	Mississippi State	2	Auburn	3	Auburn
2007	09/15	Auburn	14	Mississippi State	19	Mississippi State
2006	09/09	Mississippi State	0	Auburn	34	Auburn
2005	09/10	Auburn	28	Mississippi State	0	Auburn
2004	09/11	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	43	Auburn
2003	10/18	Auburn	45	Mississippi State	13	Auburn
2002	09/19	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	42	Auburn
2001	10/06	Auburn	16	Mississippi State	14	Auburn
2000	10/06	Mississippi State	17	Auburn	10	Mississippi State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Auburn	16	6	4 Overs
Mississippi State	8	5	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 10	5 - 6	3 - 5	2 - 1
Road Teams	10 - 14	6 - 5	1 - 2	5 - 3

(#84) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -3.49 #84
Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #32
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Mississippi State Ratings Matchup Auburn

Power #84

#32

Off #120

#70

Def #85

#44

Talent #31

#23

SP+ #66

#36

SP+ Off #78

#65

SP+ Def #55

#24

Rematch from Week 9
Auburn -6.5 (40.0)
Auburn won vs Mississippi State this year (27-13)

Previous Matchups
Auburn beat Mississippi State in 2023 (27-13)
Mississippi State beat Auburn in 2022 (39-33)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | AUB
Depth Chart: MSST | AUB
Rosters: MSST | AUB

(#32) Auburn Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 8.28 #32
Offense Rating: 16.07 #70
Defense Rating: 7.76 #44
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #24
Talent Rating: 830.00 #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #15
Expected Record: 7.30 - 5.70

Mississippi State's OC Kevin Barbay

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Auburn's OC Philip Montgomery

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Mississippi State's DC Matt Brock

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Auburn's DC Ron Roberts

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD