Kentucky at Mississippi State Game Matchup
Kentucky logo Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, November 4th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Kentucky -5.5 (44.5) (-180)  Open: -3.5 | 46.0
Kentucky 24 - Mississippi State: 3  (SEC)

 
Wildcats (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (69 - 59)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#63)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Kentucky -5    (SP+ -9.5)
PPG only: UK: 27 - MSST: 24 (51)
UK Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
UK Travel: 397 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Greg Knox (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Kentucky vs Ball State-25.049.0W 44 - 14
Sat 9/9 Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-35.062.5W 28 - 17
Sat 9/16 Kentucky vs Akron-25.048.5W 35 - 3
Sat 9/23 Kentucky at Vanderbilt-13.550.0W 45 - 28
Sat 9/30 Kentucky vs Florida-1.044.0W 33 - 14
Sat 10/7 Kentucky at Georgia+14.547.0L 13 - 51
Sat 10/14 Kentucky vs Missouri-1.550.5L 21 - 38
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Kentucky vs Tennessee+4.050.5L 27 - 33
Sat 11/4 Kentucky at Mississippi State-5.544.5W 24 - 3
Sat 11/11 Kentucky vs Alabama+10.045.5L 21 - 49
Sat 11/18 Kentucky at South Carolina+2.552.5L 14 - 17
Sat 11/25 Kentucky at Louisville+7.547.5W 38 - 31
Fri 12/29 Kentucky vs Clemson+3.544.5L 35 - 38
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana-31.559.5W 48 - 7
Sat 9/9 Mississippi State vs Arizona-9.060.0W 31 - 24
Sat 9/16 Mississippi State vs LSU+9.554.0L 14 - 41
Sat 9/23 Mississippi State at South Carolina+6.046.5L 30 - 37
Sat 9/30 Mississippi State vs Alabama+16.545.0L 17 - 40
Sat 10/7 Mississippi State vs Western Michigan-21.554.5W 41 - 28
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Mississippi State at Arkansas+6.546.5W 7 - 3
Sat 10/28 Mississippi State at Auburn+6.540.0L 13 - 27
Sat 11/4 Mississippi State vs Kentucky+5.544.5L 3 - 24
Sat 11/11 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+16.540.5L 10 - 51
Sat 11/18 Mississippi State vs Southern Miss-18.547.5W 41 - 20
Thu 11/23 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+11.056.0L 7 - 17
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

UK's OC Liam Coen vs MSST's DC Matt Brock     MSST's OC Kevin Barbay vs UK's DC Brad White

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK.1140%20.643%311637%2083.23.0737%22.138%37%3.1539.51.51.5
MSST.1946%25.845%2.968247%3104.23.0939%34.141%38%3.5360.81.51.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense1320.61839.8%3.231.5183251162083.351%48%43%37%18%.11
MSST Defense1334.134.939.2%3.531.9 - - - - - 46%53%41%38%18%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense1322.13137.2%3.151.5 - - - - - 54%46%38%37%14%.07
MSST Offense1325.830.746.2%4.231.523393823103.630%70%45%47%16%.19

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky1333:0817.634%62%5.739.51.51.541.5227.5
Mississippi State1329:5822.839%52%6.360.81.51.96.42.4531.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense1351%43%35.6116.23.39.05365%13%0.78
MSST Defense1346%41% - - - - .142.7959%11%1.04
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense1354%38% - - - - .062.9162%8%1
MSST Offense1330%45%22.882.43.612.122.9660%8%0.89

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense1348%37%17.226.8208.57.812.12113.231.934%28%.226%2
MSST Defense1353%38% - - - - - - 14.11.634%28%.096%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense1346%37% - - - - - - 10.141.534%26%.186%2.1
MSST Offense1370%47%32.848.8310.46.49.5369.221.227%30%.318%2

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 3.64 #43
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
2023 Talent Rating: 826.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 37% #20
Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30
Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Kentucky's SP+ Ratings
Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 3.64   Mississippi State: -1.49

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 9.3   Mississippi State: -0.4




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -1.49 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Mississippi State's SP+ Ratings
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 18
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Kentucky 27
Mississippi State 24

Projected Total Points: 51
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/04Mississippi State3Kentucky24KentuckyKentucky -5.5Kentucky44.5Under
202210/15Kentucky27Mississippi State17KentuckyMississippi State -3.5Kentucky50.5Under
202110/30Mississippi State31Kentucky17Mississippi StateMississippi State -1Mississippi State47.0Over
202010/10Kentucky24Mississippi State2KentuckyKentucky -3.5Kentucky57.5Under
201909/21Mississippi State28Kentucky13Mississippi StateMississippi State -5.5Mississippi State48.0Under
201809/22Kentucky28Mississippi State7KentuckyMississippi State -9.5Kentucky56.0Under
201710/21Mississippi State45Kentucky7Mississippi StateMississippi State -14Mississippi State54.5Under
201610/22Kentucky40Mississippi State38KentuckyMississippi State -1.5Kentucky54.5Over
201510/24Mississippi State42Kentucky16Mississippi StateMississippi State -11.5Mississippi State59.0Under
201410/25Kentucky31Mississippi State45Mississippi StateMississippi State -13Mississippi State0
201310/24Mississippi State28Kentucky22Mississippi StateMississippi State -11Kentucky0
201210/06Kentucky14Mississippi State27Mississippi State
201110/29Kentucky16Mississippi State28Mississippi State
201010/30Mississippi State24Kentucky17Mississippi State
200910/31Kentucky24Mississippi State31Mississippi State
200811/01Mississippi State13Kentucky14Kentucky
200710/27Kentucky14Mississippi State31Mississippi State
200610/28Mississippi State31Kentucky34Kentucky
200510/29Kentucky13Mississippi State7Kentucky
200410/30Mississippi State22Kentucky7Mississippi State
200310/25Kentucky42Mississippi State17Kentucky
200211/02Mississippi State24Kentucky45Kentucky
200111/03Mississippi State17Kentucky14Mississippi State
200011/03Kentucky17Mississippi State35Mississippi State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State1452 Overs
Kentucky1067 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 108 - 35 - 13 - 2
Road Teams10 - 143 - 82 - 31 - 5

(#43) Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 3.64 #43
Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33
Talent Rating: 826.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 37% #20
Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30

Kentucky     Ratings Matchup     Mississippi State
Power #43
#84
Off #60
#120
Def #72
#85
Talent #25
#31
SP+ #31
#66
SP+ Off #44
#78
SP+ Def #33
#55

Rematch from Week 10
Kentucky 5.5 (44.5)
Kentucky won at Mississippi State this year (24-3)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Mississippi State in 2023 (24-3)
Kentucky beat Mississippi State in 2022 (27-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UK | MSST
Depth Chart: UK | MSST
Rosters: UK | MSST
(#84) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -1.49 #84
Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90





  
Kentucky's OC Liam Coen
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Mississippi State's OC Kevin Barbay
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Kentucky's DC Brad White
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Mississippi State's DC Matt Brock
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