NC State at Virginia Game Matchup
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at Virginia CavaliersVirginia logo
Friday, September 22nd 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
NC State -8.5 (47.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
NC State 24 - Virginia: 21  (ACC)

 
Wolfpack (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (74 - 55)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: NC State -9    (SP+ -19.5)
PPG only: NCST: 29 - UVA: 27 (56)
NCST Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
NCST Travel: 155 miles
Cavaliers (3 - 9) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (19 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#125)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
NC State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Thu 8/31 NC State at UConn-14.547.5W 24 - 14
Sat 9/9 NC State vs Notre Dame+7.049.5L 24 - 45
Sat 9/16 NC State vs VMI-42.551.0W 45 - 7
Fri 9/22 NC State at Virginia-8.547.5W 24 - 21
Fri 9/29 NC State vs Louisville+3.556.5L 10 - 13
Sat 10/7 NC State vs Marshall-6.544.0W 48 - 41
Sat 10/14 NC State at Duke+3.544.0L 3 - 24
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 NC State vs Clemson+9.544.5W 24 - 17
Sat 11/4 NC State vs Miami+6.544.0W 20 - 6
Sat 11/11 NC State at Wake Forest+0.542.5W 26 - 6
Sat 11/18 NC State at Virginia Tech+2.540.5W 35 - 28
Sat 11/25 NC State vs North Carolina+2.055.0W 39 - 20
Thu 12/28 NC State vs Kansas State+3.048.5L 19 - 28
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Virginia's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Virginia vs Tennessee+27.556.0L 13 - 49
Sat 9/9 Virginia vs James Madison+6.040.0L 35 - 36
Fri 9/15 Virginia at Maryland+16.548.5L 14 - 42
Fri 9/22 Virginia vs NC State+8.547.5L 21 - 24
Sat 9/30 Virginia at Boston College+5.052.5L 24 - 27
Sat 10/7 Virginia vs William & Mary-10.042.0W 27 - 13
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Virginia at North Carolina+24.058.0W 31 - 27
Sat 10/28 Virginia at Miami+18.548.0L 26 - 29
Sat 11/4 Virginia vs Georgia Tech-2.057.5L 17 - 45
Thu 11/9 Virginia at Louisville+20.549.5L 24 - 31
Sat 11/18 Virginia vs Duke+4.048.5W 30 - 27
Sat 11/25 Virginia vs Virginia Tech+2.552.5L 17 - 55
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

NCST's OC Robert Anae vs UVA's DC John Rudzinski     UVA's OC Des Kitchings vs NCST's DC Tony Gibson

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST.1339%28.540%2.8111438%2263.52.135%30.233%37%3.3957.81.21.7
UVA.0840%22.744%3.212337%2212.81.1341%28.840%41%3.5462.22.21.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense1328.530.838.8%3.521.2203401142263.444%55%40%38%16%.13
UVA Defense1028.825.340.8%3.541.7 - - - - - 51%49%40%41%15%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense1330.235.535.1%3.391.7 - - - - - 42%57%33%37%19%.1
UVA Offense1022.718.739.7%2.812.2193441232213.745%54%44%37%22%.08

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State1331:2320.436%40%7.357.81.21.76.52.2231.6
Virginia1027:301932%39%762.22.21.75.13028.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense1344%40%34113.83.48.022.8171%10%0.82
UVA Defense1051%40% - - - - .083.2667%9%0.87
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense1342%33% - - - - .012.5153%11%1.04
UVA Offense1045%44%32.91233.713.173.272%12%1.01

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense1355%38%20.736.2226.16.210.9238.251.535%27%.326%2.1
UVA Defense1049%41% - - - - - - 5.191.430%29%.316%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense1357%37% - - - - - - 19.21.638%30%.368%2
UVA Offense1054%37%18.534.22216.512712.041.536%33%.4210%2

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 5.66 #34
NC State's Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
NC State's Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
2023 Talent Rating: 670.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
NC State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
NC State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

NC State's SP+ Ratings
NC State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 5.66   Virginia: -3.47

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.4   Virginia: -10.3




Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -3.47 #93
Virginia's Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
2023 Talent Rating: 668.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #59
Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30

Virginia's SP+ Ratings
Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.5

NC State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
NC State 29
Virginia 27

Projected Total Points: 56
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/22Virginia21NC State24NC StateNC State -8.5Virginia47.5Under
202010/10Virginia21NC State38NC StateVirginia -7NC State59.0Push
201809/29NC State35Virginia21NC StateNC State -5.5NC State52.5Over
201211/03NC State6Virginia33Virginia
201110/22Virginia14NC State28NC State
200710/27NC State29Virginia24NC State
200610/28Virginia14NC State7Virginia
200311/01NC State51Virginia37NC State
200211/16Virginia14NC State9Virginia
200110/27NC State24Virginia0NC State
200011/17Virginia24NC State17Virginia
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Virginia411 Overs
NC State721 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 42 - 11 - 11 - 0
Road Teams4 - 71 - 20 - 11 - 1

(#34) NC State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 5.66 #34
Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16
Talent Rating: 670.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60

NC State     Ratings Matchup     Virginia
Power #34
#93
Off #83
#84
Def #17
#114
Talent #58
#60
SP+ #30
#106
SP+ Off #69
#95
SP+ Def #16
#99

Rematch from Week 4
NC State 8.5 (47.5)
NC State won at Virginia this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
NC State beat Virginia in 2023 (24-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 68° - Wind: 11 mph


Team Information
Injuries: NCST | UVA
Depth Chart: NCST | UVA
Rosters: NCST | UVA
(#93) Virginia Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -3.47 #93
Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99
Talent Rating: 668.00 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #59
Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30





  
NC State's OC Robert Anae
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Virginia's OC Des Kitchings
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NC State's DC Tony Gibson
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Virginia's DC John Rudzinski
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