Toledo at Massachusetts Game Matchup
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Massachusetts MinutemenMassachusetts logo
Saturday, October 7th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -19 (55.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Toledo 41 - Massachusetts: 24

 
Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UMASS 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Toledo -16.5    (SP+ -21.5)

PPG only: TOL: 32 - UMASS: 23 (55)
TOL Win prob: 91% | Cover: 51%
TOL Travel: 570 miles
Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (27 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Toledo at Illinois+7.045.5L 28 - 30
Sat 9/9 Toledo vs Texas Southern-40.561.0W 71 - 3
Sat 9/16 Toledo vs San José State-9.056.5W 21 - 17
Sat 9/23 Toledo vs Western Michigan-21.552.5W 49 - 31
Sat 9/30 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-13.048.0W 35 - 33
Sat 10/7 Toledo at Massachusetts-19.055.5W 41 - 24
Sat 10/14 Toledo at Ball State-17.548.5W 13 - 6
Sat 10/21 Toledo at Miami (OH)-2.046.5W 21 - 17
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Toledo vs Buffalo-14.047.0W 31 - 13
Wed 11/8 Toledo vs Eastern Michigan-19.545.5W 49 - 23
Tue 11/14 Toledo at Bowling Green-9.548.5W 32 - 31
Fri 11/24 Toledo at Central Michigan-12.554.5W 32 - 17
Sat 12/2 Toledo vs Miami (OH)-8.546.0L 14 - 23
Sat 12/30 Toledo vs Wyoming+4.543.5L 15 - 16
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/26 Massachusetts at New Mexico State+7.045.5W 41 - 30
Sat 9/2 Massachusetts at Auburn+35.052.0L 14 - 59
Sat 9/9 Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)+7.045.0L 28 - 41
Sat 9/16 Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan+7.050.0L 17 - 19
Sat 9/23 Massachusetts vs New Mexico-3.548.5L 31 - 34
Sat 9/30 Massachusetts vs Arkansas State-2.555.5L 28 - 52
Sat 10/7 Massachusetts vs Toledo+19.055.5L 24 - 41
Sat 10/14 Massachusetts at Penn State+42.055.0L 0 - 63
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Massachusetts at Army+10.049.5W 21 - 14
Sat 11/4 Massachusetts vs Merrimack-16.557.5W 31 - 21
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18 Massachusetts at Liberty+26.564.5L 25 - 49
Sat 11/25 Massachusetts vs UConn-2.551.0L 18 - 31
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

TOL's OC Mike Hallett vs UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski     UMASS's OC Steve Casula vs TOL's DC Vince Kehres

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL.1943%28.344%317843%2254.23.0734%23.236%34%3.9755.41.91.6
UMASS.0132%22.534%2.815031%1172.26.240%35.542%38%3.666.21.61.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1428.322.242.8%4.231.9224031782254.355%44%44%43%16%.19
UMASS Defense1235.532.240.1%3.61.6 - - - - - 60%39%42%38%20%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1423.221.334.2%3.971.6 - - - - - 51%48%36%34%18%.07
UMASS Offense1222.527.232.4%2.261.6152671501173.560%39%34%31%20%.01

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1429:312241%59%6.755.41.91.65.52.2229.6
Massachusetts1231:5514.628%48%7.666.21.61.66.11.6127.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1455%44%41.4177.84.323.14376%10%0.92
UMASS Defense1260%42% - - - - .183.1770%13%1.14
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1451%36% - - - - .13.0483%10%1.08
UMASS Offense1260%34%43.3150.33.510.032.869%14%0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1444%43%17.631.4224.97.212.83115.351.732%30%.325%2.2
UMASS Defense1239%38% - - - - - - 9.291.933%28%.287%2.3
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1448%34% - - - - - - 12.081.637%23%.098%2
UMASS Offense1239%31%11.323.1116.95.110.3414.011.637%19%.16%2.1

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 7.27 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Toledo's SP+ Ratings
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 506.5
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 7.27   Massachusetts: -9.09

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 4.0   Massachusetts: -17.7




Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -9.09 #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
2023 Talent Rating: 422.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10

Massachusetts's SP+ Ratings
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 638.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 32
Massachusetts 23


Projected Total Points: 55
Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 35.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.2

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Toledo38Massachusetts23ToledoToledo -17.5Massachusetts50.5Over
202310/07Massachusetts24Toledo41ToledoToledo -19Massachusetts55.5Over
202209/10Toledo55Massachusetts10ToledoToledo -28Toledo49.0Over
202110/02Massachusetts7Toledo45ToledoToledo -26.5Toledo56.5Under
201510/24Massachusetts35Toledo51ToledoToledo -9.5Toledo61.0Over
201410/25Toledo42Massachusetts35ToledoToledo -17.5Massachusetts0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Massachusetts034 Overs
Toledo631 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 32 - 41 - 21 - 2
Road Teams3 - 34 - 22 - 12 - 1

(#29) Toledo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.27 #29
Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35
Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90

Toledo     Ratings Matchup     Massachusetts
Power #29
#121
Off #30
#59
Def #24
#129
Talent #82
#108
SP+ #51
#125
SP+ Off #65
#99
SP+ Def #35
#124

Rematch from Week 6
Toledo 19.0 (55.5)
Toledo won at Massachusetts this year (41-24)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Massachusetts last year (38-23)
Toledo beat Massachusetts in 2023 (41-24)
Toledo beat Massachusetts in 2022 (55-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 68° - Wind: 10 mph


Team Information
Injuries: TOL | UMASS
Depth Chart: TOL | UMASS
Rosters: TOL | UMASS
(#121) Massachusetts Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -9.09 #121
Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124
Talent Rating: 422.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10





  
Toledo's OC Mike Hallett
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Massachusetts's OC Steve Casula
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Toledo's DC Vince Kehres
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
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Massachusetts's DC Keith Dudzinski
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