Toledo at Massachusetts Game Matchup

Toledo Rockets at Massachusetts Minutemen

Saturday, October 7th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -19 (55.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Toledo 41 - Massachusetts: 24

Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UMASS 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Toledo -16.5 (SP+ -21.5)
PPG only: TOL: 32 - UMASS: 23 (55)
TOL Win prob: 91% | Cover: 51%
TOL Travel: 570 miles

Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (27 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Toledo at Illinois	+7.0	45.5	L 28 - 30
Sat 9/9	Toledo vs Texas Southern	-40.5	61.0	W 71 - 3
Sat 9/16	Toledo vs San José State	-9.0	56.5	W 21 - 17
Sat 9/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	-21.5	52.5	W 49 - 31
Sat 9/30	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	48.0	W 35 - 33
Sat 10/7	Toledo at Massachusetts	-19.0	55.5	W 41 - 24
Sat 10/14	Toledo at Ball State	-17.5	48.5	W 13 - 6
Sat 10/21	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-2.0	46.5	W 21 - 17
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Toledo vs Buffalo	-14.0	47.0	W 31 - 13
Wed 11/8	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	45.5	W 49 - 23
Tue 11/14	Toledo at Bowling Green	-9.5	48.5	W 32 - 31
Fri 11/24	Toledo at Central Michigan	-12.5	54.5	W 32 - 17
Sat 12/2	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-8.5	46.0	L 14 - 23
Sat 12/30	Toledo vs Wyoming	+4.5	43.5	L 15 - 16

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/26	Massachusetts at New Mexico State	+7.0	45.5	W 41 - 30
Sat 9/2	Massachusetts at Auburn	+35.0	52.0	L 14 - 59
Sat 9/9	Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)	+7.0	45.0	L 28 - 41
Sat 9/16	Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan	+7.0	50.0	L 17 - 19
Sat 9/23	Massachusetts vs New Mexico	-3.5	48.5	L 31 - 34
Sat 9/30	Massachusetts vs Arkansas State	-2.5	55.5	L 28 - 52
Sat 10/7	Massachusetts vs Toledo	+19.0	55.5	L 24 - 41
Sat 10/14	Massachusetts at Penn State	+42.0	55.0	L 0 - 63
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Massachusetts at Army	+10.0	49.5	W 21 - 14
Sat 11/4	Massachusetts vs Merrimack	-16.5	57.5	W 31 - 21
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Massachusetts at Liberty	+26.5	64.5	L 25 - 49
Sat 11/25	Massachusetts vs UConn	-2.5	51.0	L 18 - 31

TOL's OC Mike Hallett vs UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski UMASS's OC Steve Casula vs TOL's DC Vince Kehres

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	.19	43%	28.3	44%	3	178	43%	225	4.23	.07	34%	23.2	36%	34%	3.97	55.4	1.9	1.6
UMASS	.01	32%	22.5	34%	2.8	150	31%	117	2.26	.2	40%	35.5	42%	38%	3.6	66.2	1.6	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UMASS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	14	28.3	22.2	42.8%	4.23	1.9	22	403	178	225	4.3	55%	44%	44%	43%	16%	.19
UMASS Defense	12	35.5	32.2	40.1%	3.6	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	42%	38%	20%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	14	23.2	21.3	34.2%	3.97	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	36%	34%	18%	.07
UMASS Offense	12	22.5	27.2	32.4%	2.26	1.6	15	267	150	117	3.5	60%	39%	34%	31%	20%	.01

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	14	29:31	22	41%	59%	6.7	55.4	1.9	1.6	5.5	2.2	2	29.6
Massachusetts	12	31:55	14.6	28%	48%	7.6	66.2	1.6	1.6	6.1	1.6	1	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	14	55%	44%	41.4	177.8	4.3	23	.14	3	76%	10%	0.92
UMASS Defense	12	60%	42%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.17	70%	13%	1.14

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	14	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.04	83%	10%	1.08
UMASS Offense	12	60%	34%	43.3	150.3	3.5	10	.03	2.8	69%	14%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	14	44%	43%	17.6	31.4	224.9	7.2	12.8	31	15	.35	1.7	32%	30%	.32	5%	2.2
UMASS Defense	12	39%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.29	1.9	33%	28%	.28	7%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	14	48%	34%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.08	1.6	37%	23%	.09	8%	2
UMASS Offense	12	39%	31%	11.3	23.1	116.9	5.1	10.3	4	14	.01	1.6	37%	19%	.1	6%	2.1

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 7.27 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Toledo's SP+ Ratings
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 506.5
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 7.27 Massachusetts: -9.09

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 4.0 Massachusetts: -17.7

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -9.09 #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
2023 Talent Rating: 422.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10

Massachusetts's SP+ Ratings
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 638.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 32
Massachusetts 23

Projected Total Points: 55

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 35.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.2

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Toledo	38	Massachusetts	23	Toledo	Toledo -17.5	Massachusetts	50.5	Over
2023	10/07	Massachusetts	24	Toledo	41	Toledo	Toledo -19	Massachusetts	55.5	Over
2022	09/10	Toledo	55	Massachusetts	10	Toledo	Toledo -28	Toledo	49.0	Over
2021	10/02	Massachusetts	7	Toledo	45	Toledo	Toledo -26.5	Toledo	56.5	Under
2015	10/24	Massachusetts	35	Toledo	51	Toledo	Toledo -9.5	Toledo	61.0	Over
2014	10/25	Toledo	42	Massachusetts	35	Toledo	Toledo -17.5	Massachusetts	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Massachusetts	0	3	4 Overs
Toledo	6	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 3	2 - 4	1 - 2	1 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 3	4 - 2	2 - 1	2 - 1

(#29) Toledo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.27 #29
Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35
Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90

Toledo Ratings Matchup Massachusetts

Power #29

#121

Off #30

#59

Def #24

#129

Talent #82

#108

SP+ #51

#125

SP+ Off #65

#99

SP+ Def #35

#124

Rematch from Week 6
Toledo 19.0 (55.5)
Toledo won at Massachusetts this year (41-24)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Massachusetts last year (38-23)
Toledo beat Massachusetts in 2023 (41-24)
Toledo beat Massachusetts in 2022 (55-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 68° - Wind: 10 mph

Team Information
Injuries: TOL | UMASS
Depth Chart: TOL | UMASS
Rosters: TOL | UMASS

(#121) Massachusetts Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -9.09 #121
Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124
Talent Rating: 422.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10

Toledo's OC Mike Hallett

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Massachusetts's OC Steve Casula

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Toledo's DC Vince Kehres

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Massachusetts's DC Keith Dudzinski

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD