Texas State at UTSA Game Matchup

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
UT San Antonio -13.5 (66.5) (0) Open: 0.0
UTSA 20 - Texas State: 13

Bobcats (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (34 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#47)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 101.7° (30% Hum)
TXST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: UTSA -5.5 (SP+ -8)
PPG only: TXST: 33 - UTSA: 29 (62)
UTSA Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
TXST Travel: 47 miles

Roadrunners (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (31 - 12)
Avg Score : 33 - 30 (43 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#32)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Texas State at Baylor	+26.5	58.5	W 42 - 31
Sat 9/9	Texas State at UTSA	+13.5	66.5	L 13 - 20
Sat 9/16	Texas State vs Jackson State	-17.5	61.5	W 77 - 34
Sat 9/23	Texas State vs Nevada	-17.0	60.0	W 35 - 24
Sat 9/30	Texas State at Southern Miss	-6.5	60.0	W 50 - 36
Sat 10/7	Texas State at Louisiana	+1.0	67.5	L 30 - 34
Sat 10/14	Texas State vs UL Monroe	-18.5	64.5	W 21 - 20
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Texas State vs Troy	+6.5	53.0	L 13 - 31
Sat 11/4	Texas State vs Georgia Southern	+2.0	69.0	W 45 - 24
Sat 11/11	Texas State at Coastal Carolina	-2.5	55.5	L 23 - 31
Sat 11/18	Texas State at Arkansas State	-3.5	59.5	L 31 - 77
Sat 11/25	Texas State vs South Alabama	+6.5	57.0	W 52 - 44
Tue 12/26	Texas State vs Rice	-3.5	58.5	W 45 - 21

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

UTSA's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	UTSA at Houston	-2.5	59.5	L 14 - 17
Sat 9/9	UTSA vs Texas State	-13.5	66.5	W 20 - 13
Fri 9/15	UTSA vs Army	-7.0	42.0	L 29 - 37
Sat 9/23	UTSA at Tennessee	+24.0	59.0	L 14 - 45
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	UTSA at Temple	-14.0	56.0	W 49 - 34
Sat 10/14	UTSA vs UAB	-9.0	67.0	W 41 - 20
Sat 10/21	UTSA at Florida Atlantic	-2.5	58.5	W 36 - 10
Sat 10/28	UTSA vs East Carolina	-17.5	48.0	W 41 - 27
Sat 11/4	UTSA at North Texas	-7.5	71.0	W 37 - 29
Sat 11/11	UTSA vs Rice	-13.5	53.5	W 34 - 14
Fri 11/17	UTSA vs South Florida	-14.5	65.5	W 49 - 21
Fri 11/24	UTSA at Tulane	+2.5	51.5	L 16 - 29
Tue 12/19	UTSA vs Marshall	-7.0	47.0	W 35 - 17

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich vs UTSA's DC Jess Loepp UTSA's OC Justin Burke vs TXST's DC Jonathan Patke

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	.11	38%	36.5	47%	3.14	103	33%	221	3.69	.13	41%	24.5	40%	42%	3.63	44.3	1.4	2.1
UTSA	.31	49%	33.2	46%	3.41	176	53%	300	4.28	.16	36%	30.1	34%	38%	3.18	62.6	1.4	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UTSA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	12	36.5	33.8	38.3%	3.69	1.4	18	324	103	221	3.2	43%	56%	47%	33%	21%	.11
UTSA Defense	14	30.1	21.7	35.8%	3.18	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	34%	38%	21%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	12	24.5	24	40.7%	3.63	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	42%	20%	.13
UTSA Offense	14	33.2	42.6	49.3%	4.28	1.4	26	476	176	300	4.5	48%	52%	46%	53%	14%	.31

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	12	30:28	17.7	37%	33%	4.8	44.3	1.4	2.1	6.4	2.2	2	26.9
UTSA	14	29:44	25.9	49%	48%	7.1	62.6	1.4	1.7	6.4	1.8	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	12	43%	47%	31.9	103	3.2	9	.13	3.14	75%	13%	0.84
UTSA Defense	14	48%	34%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.65	67%	12%	1.24

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.17	63%	12%	0.95
UTSA Offense	14	48%	46%	38.8	175.6	4.5	28	.21	3.41	75%	9%	0.99

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	12	56%	33%	22.8	36.8	220.8	6	9.7	19	10	.14	1.6	33%	27%	.38	8%	2.2
UTSA Defense	14	51%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.25	1.7	36%	28%	.31	8%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	12	55%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.19	1.4	33%	30%	.25	7%	1.8
UTSA Offense	14	52%	53%	24.4	35.9	300.4	8.4	12.3	34	9	.44	1.5	27%	38%	.49	6%	2

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Texas State's Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
2023 Talent Rating: 140.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Texas State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Texas State's SP+ Ratings
Texas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.06 UTSA: 3.44

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -4.0 UTSA: 4.2

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: 3.44 #55
UTSA's Offense Rating: 18.48 #51
UTSA's Defense Rating: 7.49 #43
2023 Talent Rating: 420.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
UTSA's 2023 Expected Record: 8.60 - 4.40

UTSA's SP+ Ratings
UTSA's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.2 #49
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 492.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.8
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Texas State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 33
UTSA 29

Projected Total Points: 62

UTSA Scoring
Offense: 33.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.6
Defense: 30.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.7

UTSA's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Texas State	49	UTSA	10	Texas State	Texas State -2.5	Texas State	58.5	Over
2023	09/09	UTSA	20	Texas State	13	UTSA	UT San Antonio -13.5	Texas State	66.5	Under
2020	09/12	Texas State	48	UTSA	51	UTSA	Texas State -6.0	UTSA	56.5	Over
2018	09/22	UTSA	25	Texas State	21	UTSA	UT San Antonio -7	Texas State	49.0	Under
2017	09/23	Texas State	14	UTSA	44	UTSA	UT San Antonio -13.5	UTSA	45.0	Over
2012	11/24	UTSA	38	Texas State	31	UTSA

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UTSA	5	2	3 Overs
Texas State	1	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 2	1 - 4	1 - 3	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 4	4 - 1	1 - 0	3 - 1

(#77) Texas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.06 #77
Offense Rating: 22.88 #21
Defense Rating: 11.42 #91
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #114
Talent Rating: 140.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 7.80 - 5.20

Texas State Ratings Matchup UTSA

Power #77

#55

Off #21

#51

Def #91

#43

Talent #131

#109

SP+ #79

#49

SP+ Off #47

#42

SP+ Def #114

#75

Rematch from Week 2
UTSA -13.5 (66.5)
UTSA won vs Texas State this year (20-13)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat UTSA last year (49-10)
UTSA beat Texas State in 2023 (20-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alamodome
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 102° - Wind: 10 mph

Team Information
Injuries: TXST | UTSA
Depth Chart: TXST | UTSA
Rosters: TXST | UTSA

(#55) UTSA Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 3.44 #55
Offense Rating: 18.48 #51
Defense Rating: 7.49 #43
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.2 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 420.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.60 - 4.40

Texas State's OC Mack Leftwich

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

UTSA's OC Justin Burke

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Texas State's DC Jonathan Patke

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD