Southern Miss at Arkansas State Game Matchup

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Southern Mississippi -7 (46.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Arkansas State 44 - Southern Miss: 37 (Sun Belt)

Golden Eagles (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 15 - 38 (11 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Arkansas State -5 (SP+ -8)
PPG only: USM: 24 - ARST: 32 (56)
USM Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
USM Travel: 322 miles

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Southern Miss's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Southern Miss vs Alcorn State	-24.0	47.5	W 40 - 14
Sat 9/9	Southern Miss at Florida State	+31.0	54.0	L 13 - 66
Sat 9/16	Southern Miss vs Tulane	+8.0	47.5	L 3 - 21
Sat 9/23	Southern Miss at Arkansas State	-7.0	46.5	L 37 - 44
Sat 9/30	Southern Miss vs Texas State	+6.5	60.0	L 36 - 50
Sat 10/7	Southern Miss vs Old Dominion	-3.0	56.5	L 13 - 17
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	Southern Miss at South Alabama	+18.5	51.0	L 3 - 55
Sat 10/28	Southern Miss at App State	+16.0	55.5	L 38 - 48
Sat 11/4	Southern Miss vs UL Monroe	-3.0	56.0	W 24 - 7
Thu 11/9	Southern Miss at Louisiana	+8.5	51.5	W 34 - 31
Sat 11/18	Southern Miss at Mississippi State	+18.5	47.5	L 20 - 41
Sat 11/25	Southern Miss vs Troy	+16.5	48.5	L 17 - 35

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21

USM's OC Sam Gregg vs ARST's DC Rob Harley ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf vs USM's DC Dan O'Brien

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM	.11	39%	15.3	40%	2.8	142	39%	208	3.69	.1	36%	37.8	37%	37%	3.86	59.5	2	1.8
ARST	.1	36%	25.8	35%	2.36	88	38%	227	3.48	.24	44%	32.2	45%	43%	4.58	54.5	0.8	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Offense	13	15.3	11	38.6%	3.69	2	18	349	142	208	3.9	53%	45%	40%	39%	19%	.11
ARST Defense	12	32.2	27.2	44.2%	4.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	43%	18%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USM Defense	13	37.8	42.5	36.4%	3.86	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	37%	37%	18%	.1
ARST Offense	12	25.8	29	36.1%	3.48	0.8	17	315	88	227	2.8	42%	57%	35%	38%	21%	.1

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Southern Miss	13	28:38	17.9	34%	63%	6.7	59.5	2	1.8	7.8	3	3	32.3
Arkansas State	12	30:14	17.2	29%	61%	5.7	54.5	0.8	1.1	6.4	1.9	2	29

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Offense	13	53%	40%	36.6	141.7	3.9	15	.06	2.8	60%	13%	0.97
ARST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	76%	12%	0.97

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USM Defense	13	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.79	74%	13%	1.03
ARST Offense	12	42%	35%	31.8	88.2	2.8	16	-.03	2.36	75%	16%	1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Offense	13	45%	39%	14.7	26.6	207.5	7.8	14.1	20	14	.25	1.7	33%	26%	.26	6%	2.2
ARST Defense	12	44%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.4	1.8	31%	31%	.31	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USM Defense	13	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.18	1.7	36%	27%	.21	6%	2.1
ARST Offense	12	57%	38%	20.6	33	226.8	6.9	11	16	5	.21	1.6	38%	25%	.19	6%	2.1

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -10.22 #119
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
2023 Talent Rating: 408.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Southern Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Southern Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Southern Miss's SP+ Ratings
Southern Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -10.22 Arkansas State: -5.23

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -15.2 Arkansas State: -7.5

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -5.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 560.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30

Arkansas State's SP+ Ratings
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 15.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 11
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Southern Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 32
Southern Miss 24

Projected Total Points: 56

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Southern Miss	28	Arkansas State	44	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -7	Arkansas State	57.0	Over
2023	09/23	Arkansas State	44	Southern Miss	37	Arkansas State	Southern Mississippi -7	Arkansas State	46.5	Over
2022	10/15	Southern Miss	20	Arkansas State	19	Southern Miss	Southern Mississippi -4.5	Arkansas State	53.0	Under
2008	09/13	Arkansas State	24	Southern Miss	27	Southern Miss
2007	11/24	Southern Miss	16	Arkansas State	10	Southern Miss
2005	12/20	Arkansas State	19	Southern Miss	31	Southern Miss

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	2	3	2 Overs
Southern Miss	4	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 3	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0

(#119) Southern Miss Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -10.22 #119
Offense Rating: 11.32 #116
Defense Rating: 12.99 #102
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #118
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #85
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125
Talent Rating: 408.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Southern Miss Ratings Matchup Arkansas State

Power #119

#100

Off #116

#85

Def #102

#95

Talent #111

#81

SP+ #118

#92

SP+ Off #85

#72

SP+ Def #125

#108

Rematch from Week 4
Southern Miss 7.0 (46.5)
Arkansas State won vs Southern Miss this year (44-37)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Southern Miss last year (44-28)
Arkansas State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (44-37)
Southern Miss beat Arkansas State in 2022 (20-19)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 82°

Team Information
Injuries: USM | ARST
Depth Chart: USM | ARST
Rosters: USM | ARST

(#100) Arkansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.23 #100
Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108
Talent Rating: 560.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30

Southern Miss's OC Sam Gregg

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Southern Miss's DC Dan O'Brien

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD