Troy at Georgia State Game Matchup

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Georgia State -1 (50.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Troy 28 - Georgia State: 7 (Sun Belt)

Trojans (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (13 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (23 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 4 (#13)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Troy -10 (SP+ -20)
PPG only: TROY: 30 - GAST: 26 (56)
GAST Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
TROY Travel: 162 miles, 1 hrs behind

Panthers (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Shawn Elliott (37 - 38)
Avg Score : 24 - 34 (24 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Troy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Troy vs Stephen F. Austin	-26.0	48.0	W 48 - 30
Sat 9/9	Troy at Kansas State	+15.0	50.0	L 13 - 42
Sat 9/16	Troy vs James Madison	-2.5	46.5	L 14 - 16
Sat 9/23	Troy vs Western Kentucky	-3.5	57.0	W 27 - 24
Sat 9/30	Troy at Georgia State	+1.0	50.5	W 28 - 7
Sat 10/7	Troy vs Arkansas State	-15.5	52.0	W 37 - 3
Sat 10/14	Troy at Army	-6.5	41.5	W 19 - 0
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Troy at Texas State	-6.5	53.0	W 31 - 13
Thu 11/2	Troy vs South Alabama	-5.5	44.5	W 28 - 10
Sat 11/11	Troy at UL Monroe	-23.5	47.5	W 45 - 14
Sat 11/18	Troy vs Louisiana	-17.5	47.5	W 31 - 24
Sat 11/25	Troy at Southern Miss	-16.5	48.5	W 35 - 17
Sat 12/2	Troy vs App State	-6.5	51.5	W 49 - 23
Sat 12/23	Troy vs Duke	-7.0	44.0	L 10 - 17

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Georgia State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Thu 8/31	Georgia State vs Rhode Island	-18.0	61.5	W 42 - 35
Sat 9/9	Georgia State vs UConn	-3.0	54.5	W 35 - 14
Sat 9/16	Georgia State at Charlotte	-6.5	52.0	W 41 - 25
Thu 9/21	Georgia State at Coastal Carolina	+4.5	62.5	W 30 - 17
Sat 9/30	Georgia State vs Troy	-1.0	50.5	L 7 - 28
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Georgia State vs Marshall	-2.0	53.5	W 41 - 24
Sat 10/21	Georgia State at Louisiana	+3.0	62.0	W 20 - 17
Thu 10/26	Georgia State at Georgia Southern	-1.0	63.0	L 27 - 44
Sat 11/4	Georgia State vs James Madison	+6.0	53.0	L 14 - 42
Sat 11/11	Georgia State vs App State	-2.5	62.5	L 14 - 42
Sat 11/18	Georgia State at LSU	+32.5	73.5	L 14 - 56
Sat 11/25	Georgia State at Old Dominion	+2.0	49.5	L 24 - 25
Sat 12/23	Georgia State vs Utah State	+2.0	58.0	W 45 - 22

TROY's OC Joe Craddock vs GAST's DC Chad Staggs GAST's OC Trent McKnight vs TROY's DC Greg Gasparato

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY	.15	40%	26	40%	2.93	116	41%	243	3.45	.08	40%	28.4	42%	38%	3.04	49.9	1.5	2.1
GAST	.17	39%	23.8	39%	3.09	216	40%	203	3.9	.16	43%	33.8	45%	41%	4.11	63.7	1.6	2.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
GAST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Offense	14	26	22.7	39.7%	3.45	1.5	20	359	116	243	3.3	49%	49%	40%	41%	16%	.15
GAST Defense	12	33.8	31.2	43%	4.11	2.7	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	41%	18%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Defense	14	28.4	34.3	39.7%	3.04	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	38%	16%	.08
GAST Offense	12	23.8	23.7	39.2%	3.9	1.6	22	418	216	203	4.5	62%	38%	39%	40%	19%	.17

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Troy	14	30:25	19.5	32%	67%	5.4	49.9	1.5	2.1	5.6	2.9	1	29.7
Georgia State	12	28:52	22.2	41%	58%	7	63.7	1.6	2.7	6.1	2.3	1	27.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Offense	14	49%	40%	35.5	116.1	3.3	21	.07	2.93	73%	11%	0.93
GAST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.05	71%	12%	1.05

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Defense	14	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.09	72%	10%	0.89
GAST Offense	12	62%	39%	48.2	215.5	4.5	26	.13	3.09	75%	13%	1.06

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Offense	14	49%	41%	17.9	28.6	242.6	8.5	13.5	20	15	.29	1.7	31%	29%	.2	5%	1.9
GAST Defense	12	44%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.24	1.6	30%	31%	.35	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Defense	14	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.1	1.4	32%	26%	.16	6%	2.1
GAST Offense	12	38%	40%	14.4	24.8	202.6	8.2	14.1	18	7	.31	1.9	34%	30%	.26	6%	2.2

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 5.08 #35
Troy's Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Troy's Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
2023 Talent Rating: 344.00 #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Troy's 2023 Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00
Troy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Troy's SP+ Ratings
Troy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: 5.08 Georgia State: -5.09

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: 10.4 Georgia State: -9.4

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -5.09 #99
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 15.65 #76
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 11.67 #96
2023 Talent Rating: 402.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Georgia State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30

Georgia State's SP+ Ratings
Georgia State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #71
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.7
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.3

Troy's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 30
Georgia State 26

Projected Total Points: 56

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.7
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.2

Georgia State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/30	Georgia State	7	Troy	28	Troy	Georgia State -1	Troy	50.5	Under
2021	11/27	Georgia State	37	Troy	10	Georgia State	Georgia State -6.5	Georgia State	49.5	Under
2020	10/24	Troy	34	Georgia State	36	Georgia State	Troy -1.5	Georgia State	68.5	Over
2019	10/26	Georgia State	52	Troy	33	Georgia State	Troy -1	Georgia State	67.0	Over
2018	10/04	Troy	37	Georgia State	20	Troy	Troy -17	Push	55.5	Over
2017	10/21	Georgia State	10	Troy	34	Troy	Troy -7	Troy	51.5	Under
2016	10/15	Troy	31	Georgia State	21	Troy	Troy -16.5	Georgia State	54.0	Under
2015	11/27	Georgia State	31	Troy	21	Georgia State	Georgia State -1	Georgia State	56.0	Under
2014	11/08	Troy	45	Georgia State	21	Troy	Troy -8.5	Troy	0
2013	10/12	Georgia State	28	Troy	35	Troy	Troy -16	Georgia State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia State	4	6	3 Overs
Troy	6	3	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 4	5 - 4	3 - 3	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 6	4 - 5	1 - 2	3 - 3

(#35) Troy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 5.08 #35
Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26
Talent Rating: 344.00 #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00

Troy Ratings Matchup Georgia State

Power #35

#99

Off #64

#76

Def #14

#96

Talent #123

#113

SP+ #26

#100

SP+ Off #34

#71

SP+ Def #26

#109

Rematch from Week 5
Georgia State -1.0 (50.5)
Troy won at Georgia State this year (28-7)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Georgia State in 2023 (28-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TROY | GAST
Depth Chart: TROY | GAST
Rosters: TROY | GAST

(#99) Georgia State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.09 #99
Offense Rating: 15.65 #76
Defense Rating: 11.67 #96
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #71
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109
Talent Rating: 402.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30

Troy's OC Joe Craddock

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Georgia State's OC Trent McKnight

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Troy's DC Greg Gasparato

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Georgia State's DC Chad Staggs

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD