Arkansas State at Troy Game Matchup
Arkansas State logo Arkansas State Red Wolves at Troy TrojansTroy logo
Saturday, October 7th 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
Troy -15.5 (52.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Troy 37 - Arkansas State: 3  (Sun Belt)

 
Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 13.7 MPHARST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: -2    (SP+ -18)
PPG only: ARST: 27 - TROY: 29 (56)
TROY Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
ARST Travel: 389 miles
Trojans (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (13 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (29 - 23 @ Home)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Arkansas State at Oklahoma+36.057.5L 0 - 73
Sat 9/9 Arkansas State vs Memphis+21.057.0L 3 - 37
Sat 9/16 Arkansas State vs Stony Brook-24.047.5W 31 - 7
Sat 9/23 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+7.046.5W 44 - 37
Sat 9/30 Arkansas State at Massachusetts+2.555.5W 52 - 28
Sat 10/7 Arkansas State at Troy+15.552.0L 3 - 37
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina+8.559.0L 17 - 27
Sat 10/28 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.055.5W 34 - 24
Sat 11/4 Arkansas State vs Louisiana+9.060.0W 37 - 17
Sat 11/11 Arkansas State at South Alabama+14.554.5L 14 - 21
Sat 11/18 Arkansas State vs Texas State+3.559.5W 77 - 31
Sat 11/25 Arkansas State at Marshall+2.054.0L 21 - 35
Sat 12/23 Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois-2.554.0L 19 - 21
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Troy's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 9/2 Troy vs Stephen F. Austin-26.048.0W 48 - 30
Sat 9/9 Troy at Kansas State+15.050.0L 13 - 42
Sat 9/16 Troy vs James Madison-2.546.5L 14 - 16
Sat 9/23 Troy vs Western Kentucky-3.557.0W 27 - 24
Sat 9/30 Troy at Georgia State+1.050.5W 28 - 7
Sat 10/7 Troy vs Arkansas State-15.552.0W 37 - 3
Sat 10/14 Troy at Army-6.541.5W 19 - 0
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Troy at Texas State-6.553.0W 31 - 13
Thu 11/2 Troy vs South Alabama-5.544.5W 28 - 10
Sat 11/11 Troy at UL Monroe-23.547.5W 45 - 14
Sat 11/18 Troy vs Louisiana-17.547.5W 31 - 24
Sat 11/25 Troy at Southern Miss-16.548.5W 35 - 17
Sat 12/2 Troy vs App State-6.551.5W 49 - 23
Sat 12/23 Troy vs Duke-7.044.0L 10 - 17
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf vs TROY's DC Greg Gasparato     TROY's OC Joe Craddock vs ARST's DC Rob Harley

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST.136%25.835%2.368838%2273.48.2444%32.245%43%4.5854.50.81.1
TROY.1540%2640%2.9311641%2433.45.0840%28.442%38%3.0449.91.52.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TROY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1225.820.736.1%3.480.817315882272.842%57%35%38%21%.1
TROY Defense1428.422.539.7%3.042.1 - - - - - 47%53%42%38%16%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1232.237.344.2%4.581.1 - - - - - 55%44%45%43%18%.24
TROY Offense142629.339.7%3.451.5203591162433.349%49%40%41%16%.15

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1230:1417.229%61%5.754.50.81.16.41.9229
Troy1430:2519.532%67%5.449.91.52.15.62.9129.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1242%35%31.888.22.816-.032.3675%16%1
TROY Defense1447%42% - - - - .083.0972%10%0.89
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1255%45% - - - - .16376%12%0.97
TROY Offense1449%40%35.5116.13.321.072.9373%11%0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1257%38%20.633226.86.911165.211.638%25%.196%2.1
TROY Defense1453%38% - - - - - - 13.11.432%26%.166%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1244%43% - - - - - - 6.41.831%31%.316%2.1
TROY Offense1449%41%17.928.6242.68.513.52015.291.731%29%.25%1.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: #NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: #NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: #NR
2023 Talent Rating: 560.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Arkansas State's SP+ Ratings
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State:    Troy: 2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5   Troy: 10.4




Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 2 #NR
Troy's Offense Rating: #NR
Troy's Defense Rating: #NR
2023 Talent Rating: 344.00 #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #NR
Troy's 2023 Expected Record: -

Troy's SP+ Ratings
Troy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Troy 29
Arkansas State 27

Projected Total Points: 56
Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Troy's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Arkansas State34Troy31Arkansas StateArkansas State -8.5Troy50.0Over
202310/07Troy37Arkansas State3TroyTroy -15.5Troy52.0Under
202211/26Arkansas State19Troy48TroyTroy -13.5Troy43.5Over
202010/31Arkansas State10Troy38TroyArkansas State -3.5Troy0
201909/28Troy43Arkansas State50Arkansas StateTroy -7Arkansas State59.5Over
201712/02Arkansas State25Troy32TroyArkansas State -1Troy60.0Under
201611/17Troy3Arkansas State35Arkansas StateTroy -8.5Arkansas State53.5Under
201309/12Arkansas State41Troy34Arkansas StateArkansas State -10Troy0
201211/17Troy34Arkansas State41Arkansas State
201112/03Arkansas State45Troy14Arkansas State
201009/25Troy35Arkansas State28Troy
200909/26Arkansas State27Troy30Troy
200812/06Troy35Arkansas State9Troy
200710/27Arkansas State0Troy27Troy
200611/18Troy26Arkansas State33Arkansas State
200511/12Arkansas State9Troy3Arkansas State
200410/16Arkansas State13Troy9Arkansas State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Troy863 Overs
Arkansas State923 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 91 - 71 - 60 - 1
Road Teams9 - 87 - 11 - 06 - 1

(#NR) Arkansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108
Talent Rating: 560.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -

Arkansas State     Ratings Matchup     Troy
Power #NR
#NR
Off #NR
#NR
Def #NR
#NR
Talent #81
#123
SP+ #92
#26
SP+ Off #72
#34
SP+ Def #108
#26

Rematch from Week 6
Troy -15.5 (52.0)
Troy won vs Arkansas State this year (37-3)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Troy last year (34-31)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2022 (48-19)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 78° - Wind: 14 mph


Team Information
Injuries: ARST | TROY
Depth Chart: ARST | TROY
Rosters: ARST | TROY
(#NR) Troy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2 #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26
Talent Rating: 344.00 #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #NR
Expected Record: -





  
Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf
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Troy's OC Joe Craddock
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Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
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Troy's DC Greg Gasparato
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