Utah State at Air Force Game Matchup

Friday, September 15th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Air Force -9 (45.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 39 - Utah State: 21 (Mountain West)

Aggies (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Blake Anderson (18 - 12)
Avg Score : 32 - 38 (25 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#87)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Air Force -9 (SP+ -14)
PPG only: USU: 28 - AFA: 28 (56)
AFA Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
USU Travel: 413 miles

Falcons (9 - 4) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Troy Calhoun (124 - 78)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#41)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Utah State at Iowa	+24.0	43.5	L 14 - 24
Sat 9/9	Utah State vs Idaho State	-24.0	61.0	W 78 - 28
Fri 9/15	Utah State at Air Force	+9.0	45.5	L 21 - 39
Sat 9/23	Utah State vs James Madison	+5.5	53.5	L 38 - 45
Sat 9/30	Utah State at UConn	-4.0	50.5	W 34 - 33
Sat 10/7	Utah State vs Colorado State	+3.0	62.0	W 44 - 24
Fri 10/13	Utah State vs Fresno State	+5.5	56.0	L 32 - 37
Sat 10/21	Utah State at San José State	+4.0	65.0	L 21 - 42
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Utah State at San Diego State	-2.0	56.5	W 32 - 24
Sat 11/11	Utah State vs Nevada	-14.5	54.5	W 41 - 24
Sat 11/18	Utah State vs Boise State	+5.5	62.5	L 10 - 45
Fri 11/24	Utah State at New Mexico	-4.5	58.5	W 44 - 41
Sat 12/23	Utah State vs Georgia State	-2.0	58.0	L 22 - 45

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Air Force's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Air Force vs Robert Morris	-47.0	51.0	W 42 - 7
Sat 9/9	Air Force vs Sam Houston	-13.5	36.5	W 13 - 3
Fri 9/15	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	45.5	W 39 - 21
Fri 9/22	Air Force at San José State	-6.0	45.5	W 45 - 20
Sat 9/30	Air Force vs San Diego State	-10.5	43.5	W 49 - 10
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Air Force vs Wyoming	-12.5	42.0	W 34 - 27
Sat 10/21	Air Force at Navy	-11.0	34.0	W 17 - 6
Sat 10/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-14.5	47.0	W 30 - 13
Sat 11/4	Air Force vs Army	-18.5	32.0	L 3 - 23
Sat 11/11	Air Force at Hawai'i	-22.5	47.5	L 13 - 27
Sat 11/18	Air Force vs UNLV	-2.5	46.5	L 27 - 31
Fri 11/24	Air Force at Boise State	+6.5	44.5	L 19 - 27
Sat 12/23	Air Force vs James Madison	-2.5	44.5	W 31 - 21

USU's OC Kyle Cefalo vs AFA's DC Brian Knorr AFA's OC Mike Thiessen vs USU's DC Joe Cauthen

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	.07	38%	31.9	39%	3.13	159	38%	195	3.15	.17	41%	37.8	44%	39%	4.05	77.5	2.1	1.7
AFA	.3	49%	18.9	50%	3.55	327	39%	70	4.25	.11	39%	23.3	38%	42%	3.77	29.7	1	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Offense	13	31.9	25.2	37.9%	3.15	2.1	20	354	159	195	3.8	55%	44%	39%	38%	17%	.07
AFA Defense	13	23.3	17.7	39.4%	3.77	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	38%	42%	20%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Defense	13	37.8	45.2	41.2%	4.05	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	44%	39%	17%	.17
AFA Offense	13	18.9	18.7	48.5%	4.25	1	20	398	327	70	5.3	87%	13%	50%	39%	10%	.3

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah State	13	28:47	19.8	33%	53%	8.5	77.5	2.1	1.7	5.8	2.7	3	30.4
Air Force	13	36:21	20.5	45%	72%	3.9	29.7	1	1.3	5.1	1.8	0	29.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Offense	13	55%	39%	42.2	159.3	3.8	14	.08	3.13	72%	9%	0.92
AFA Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.1	3.06	62%	13%	1.01

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Defense	13	55%	44%	-	-	-	-	.17	3	71%	11%	1.1
AFA Offense	13	87%	50%	61.7	327.2	5.3	37	.28	3.55	84%	8%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Offense	13	44%	38%	17.7	30.6	195.2	6.4	11	18	21	.13	1.5	32%	26%	.08	8%	1.7
AFA Defense	13	45%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.3	33%	24%	.19	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Defense	13	44%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.26	1.7	31%	29%	.24	6%	2.2
AFA Offense	13	13%	39%	3.2	6.7	70.5	10.5	22.3	8	2	.53	2.6	26%	33%	.36	2%	1.9

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -7.91 #107
Utah State's Offense Rating: 15.84 #72
Utah State's Defense Rating: 13.07 #103
2023 Talent Rating: 374.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Utah State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.50 - 7.50
Utah State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5 #97
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #49
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #129

Utah State's SP+ Ratings
Utah State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5 #97
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #49
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #129

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -7.91 Air Force: 1.22

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -8.5 Air Force: 5.2

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: 1.22 #69
Air Force's Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Air Force's Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
2023 Talent Rating: 712.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Air Force's 2023 Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70

Air Force's SP+ Ratings
Air Force's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.2

Utah State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Utah State 28
Air Force 28

Projected Total Points: 56

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Air Force's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/15	Air Force	39	Utah State	21	Air Force	Air Force -9	Air Force	45.5	Over
2022	10/08	Utah State	34	Air Force	27	Utah State	Air Force -11.5	Utah State	54.0	Over
2021	09/18	Air Force	45	Utah State	49	Utah State	Air Force -9	Utah State	54.0	Over
2020	12/03	Utah State	7	Air Force	35	Air Force	Air Force -13.5	Air Force	51.0	Under
2019	10/26	Air Force	31	Utah State	7	Air Force	Air Force -4	Air Force	58.5	Under
2018	09/22	Utah State	42	Air Force	32	Utah State	Utah State -10	Push	59.5	Over
2017	11/25	Air Force	38	Utah State	35	Air Force	Air Force -2.5	Air Force	57.5	Over
2016	09/24	Utah State	20	Air Force	27	Air Force	Air Force -3	Air Force	53.5	Under
2015	11/14	Air Force	35	Utah State	28	Air Force	Utah State -1.5	Air Force	50.5	Over
2014	10/11	Utah State	34	Air Force	16	Utah State	Utah State -7.5	Utah State	0
2013	09/07	Air Force	20	Utah State	52	Utah State	Utah State -8	Utah State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	6	6	6 Overs
Utah State	5	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	6 - 4	4 - 1	2 - 3
Road Teams	4 - 7	4 - 6	3 - 2	1 - 4

(#107) Utah State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.91 #107
Offense Rating: 15.84 #72
Defense Rating: 13.07 #103
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5 #97
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #49
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #129
Talent Rating: 374.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.50 - 7.50

Utah State Ratings Matchup Air Force

Power #107

#69

Off #72

#34

Def #103

#34

Talent #119

#43

SP+ #97

#45

SP+ Off #49

#76

SP+ Def #129

#29

Rematch from Week 3
Air Force -9.0 (45.5)
Air Force won vs Utah State this year (39-21)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Utah State in 2023 (39-21)
Utah State beat Air Force in 2022 (34-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 53°

Team Information
Injuries: USU | AFA
Depth Chart: USU | AFA
Rosters: USU | AFA

(#69) Air Force Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.22 #69
Offense Rating: 20.41 #34
Defense Rating: 6.38 #34
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.2 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #76
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #29
Talent Rating: 712.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.30 - 4.70

Utah State's OC Kyle Cefalo

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Utah State's DC Joe Cauthen

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Air Force's DC Brian Knorr

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD