Nevada at Fresno State Game Matchup

Nevada Wolf Pack at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -25.5 (50.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Fresno State 27 - Nevada: 9 (Mountain West)

Wolf Pack (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ken Wilson (2 - 13)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.9 - 9.1 (#129)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NEV 2nd straight Road Game
FRES 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Fresno State -17.5 (SP+ -23)
PPG only: NEV: 24 - FRES: 28 (52)
FRES Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
NEV Travel: 189 miles

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Tedford (39 - 18)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#34)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Nevada at USC	+37.5	63.5	L 14 - 66
Sat 9/9	Nevada vs Idaho	+5.5	51.0	L 6 - 33
Sat 9/16	Nevada vs Kansas	+28.5	58.0	L 24 - 31
Sat 9/23	Nevada at Texas State	+17.0	60.0	L 24 - 35
Sat 9/30	Nevada at Fresno State	+25.5	50.5	L 9 - 27
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Nevada vs UNLV	+7.5	51.5	L 27 - 45
Sat 10/21	Nevada at San Diego State	+11.0	48.5	W 6 - 0
Sat 10/28	Nevada vs New Mexico	+1.0	50.0	W 34 - 24
Sat 11/4	Nevada vs Hawai'i	-3.5	50.5	L 14 - 27
Sat 11/11	Nevada at Utah State	+14.5	54.5	L 24 - 41
Sat 11/18	Nevada at Colorado State	+12.5	45.5	L 20 - 30
Sat 11/25	Nevada vs Wyoming	+11.0	42.0	L 6 - 42

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Fresno State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Fresno State at Purdue	+4.0	47.0	W 39 - 35
Sat 9/9	Fresno State vs Eastern Washington	-31.5	63.5	W 34 - 31
Sat 9/16	Fresno State at Arizona State	-4.0	48.0	W 29 - 0
Sat 9/23	Fresno State vs Kent State	-27.5	47.5	W 53 - 10
Sat 9/30	Fresno State vs Nevada	-25.5	50.5	W 27 - 9
Sat 10/7	Fresno State at Wyoming	-5.5	43.0	L 19 - 24
Fri 10/13	Fresno State at Utah State	-5.5	56.0	W 37 - 32
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Fresno State vs UNLV	-10.5	56.0	W 31 - 24
Sat 11/4	Fresno State vs Boise State	-2.5	53.5	W 37 - 30
Sat 11/11	Fresno State at San José State	+2.5	51.5	L 18 - 42
Sat 11/18	Fresno State vs New Mexico	-22.5	58.5	L 17 - 25
Sat 11/25	Fresno State at San Diego State	-5.5	47.0	L 18 - 33
Sat 12/16	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	+3.0	52.5	W 37 - 10

NEV's OC Derek Sage vs FRES's DC Kevin Coyle FRES's OC Pat McCann vs NEV's DC Kwame Agyeman

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	.04	35%	23.1	37%	2.89	119	33%	186	2.85	.26	43%	28.8	44%	42%	3.97	55.1	1.4	1.7
FRES	.24	47%	26.1	47%	3.07	133	48%	270	4.22	.15	39%	24.8	42%	37%	3.29	41.1	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	12	23.1	17.8	34.8%	2.85	1.4	17	305	119	186	3.3	47%	52%	37%	33%	23%	.04
FRES Defense	14	24.8	18	39%	3.29	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	42%	37%	18%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	12	28.8	31.3	42.9%	3.97	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	44%	42%	19%	.26
FRES Offense	14	26.1	32	47.1%	4.22	1	22	403	133	270	4	42%	57%	47%	48%	11%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	12	28:29	16.9	35%	50%	6	55.1	1.4	1.7	6.3	2.2	1	27.2
Fresno State	14	31:16	21.9	46%	50%	4.5	41.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.6	3	30.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	12	47%	37%	35.6	118.9	3.3	19	.01	2.89	73%	15%	1.08
FRES Defense	14	51%	42%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.15	69%	9%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	12	53%	44%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.46	90%	13%	0.95
FRES Offense	14	42%	47%	33.2	133	4	28	.17	3.07	77%	8%	0.86

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	12	52%	33%	18.1	33.2	185.6	5.6	10.3	7	8	.1	1.6	38%	27%	.19	8%	2.2
FRES Defense	14	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.16	1.6	35%	32%	.32	9%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	12	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.35	1.8	33%	30%	.44	6%	2.4
FRES Offense	14	57%	48%	23.8	33.7	269.6	8	11.3	22	9	.35	1.3	28%	32%	.36	3%	1.8

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -15.41 #131
Nevada's Offense Rating: 7.38 #128
Nevada's Defense Rating: 13.79 #110
2023 Talent Rating: 456.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Nevada's 2023 Expected Record: 2.90 - 9.10
Nevada's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.4 #131
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2 #129
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127

Nevada's SP+ Ratings
Nevada's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.4 #131
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2 #129
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.41 Fresno State: 2.07

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -22.4 Fresno State: 0.5

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 2.07 #59
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
2023 Talent Rating: 498.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Fresno State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50

Fresno State's SP+ Ratings
Fresno State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Nevada's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 28
Nevada 24

Projected Total Points: 52

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Fresno State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/18	Nevada	21	Fresno State	24	Fresno State	Fresno State -3	NA	50.0	Under
2023	09/30	Fresno State	27	Nevada	9	Fresno State	Fresno State -25.5	Nevada	50.5	Under
2022	11/19	Nevada	14	Fresno State	41	Fresno State	Fresno State -22.5	Fresno State	54.0	Over
2021	10/23	Fresno State	34	Nevada	32	Fresno State	Fresno State -3.5	Nevada	64.5	Over
2020	12/05	Nevada	37	Fresno State	26	Nevada	Nevada -6.5	Nevada	59.0	Over
2019	11/23	Fresno State	28	Nevada	35	Nevada	Fresno State -13.5	Nevada	51.5	Over
2018	10/06	Nevada	3	Fresno State	21	Fresno State	Fresno State -15	Fresno State	59.0	Under
2017	09/30	Fresno State	41	Nevada	21	Fresno State	Fresno State -7.5	Fresno State	59.5	Over
2016	10/08	Nevada	27	Fresno State	22	Nevada	Nevada -11.5	Fresno State	54.0	Under
2015	11/05	Fresno State	16	Nevada	30	Nevada	Nevada -3.5	Nevada	54.0	Under
2014	11/22	Nevada	20	Fresno State	40	Fresno State	Nevada -6.5	Fresno State	0
2013	11/02	Fresno State	41	Nevada	23	Fresno State	Fresno State -23	Nevada	0
2012	11/10	Nevada	36	Fresno State	52	Fresno State
2011	10/22	Nevada	45	Fresno State	38	Nevada
2010	11/13	Fresno State	34	Nevada	35	Nevada
2009	11/14	Nevada	52	Fresno State	14	Nevada
2008	11/07	Fresno State	28	Nevada	41	Nevada
2007	10/06	Nevada	41	Fresno State	49	Fresno State
2006	09/01	Fresno State	28	Nevada	19	Fresno State
2005	11/26	Nevada	38	Fresno State	35	Nevada
2004	11/20	Fresno State	54	Nevada	17	Fresno State
2003	11/08	Nevada	10	Fresno State	27	Fresno State
2001	11/17	Nevada	14	Fresno State	61	Fresno State
2000	10/13	Fresno State	58	Nevada	21	Fresno State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	15	5	5 Overs
Nevada	9	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 12	2 - 9	2 - 6	0 - 3
Road Teams	12 - 12	9 - 2	3 - 0	6 - 2

(#131) Nevada Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -15.41 #131
Offense Rating: 7.38 #128
Defense Rating: 13.79 #110
Overall SP+ Rating: -22.4 #131
Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2 #129
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127
Talent Rating: 456.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 2.90 - 9.10

Nevada Ratings Matchup Fresno State

Power #131

#59

Off #128

#53

Def #110

#45

Talent #101

#89

SP+ #131

#63

SP+ Off #129

#58

SP+ Def #127

#82

Rematch from Week 5
Fresno State -25.5 (50.5)
Fresno State won vs Nevada this year (27-9)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Nevada last year (24-21)
Fresno State beat Nevada in 2023 (27-9)
Fresno State beat Nevada in 2022 (41-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NEV | FRES
Depth Chart: NEV | FRES
Rosters: NEV | FRES

(#59) Fresno State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.07 #59
Offense Rating: 18.02 #53
Defense Rating: 7.82 #45
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.5 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82
Talent Rating: 498.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 8.50 - 4.50

Nevada's OC Derek Sage

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Fresno State's OC Pat McCann

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Nevada's DC Kwame Agyeman

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Fresno State's DC Kevin Coyle

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD