Toledo at Mississippi State Game Matchup
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, September 14th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -10.5 (56.5) (-380)  Open: -9.5 | 57.5
Toledo 41 - Mississippi State: 17

 
Rockets (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (65 - 35)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Heavy Rain Shower Predicted
Our Line: Mississippi State -1    (SP+ -1.5)
PPG only: TOL: 31 - MSST: 25 (56)
MSST Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
TOL Travel: 633 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Thu 8/29 Toledo vs Duquesne-27.553.5W 49 - 10
Sat 9/7 Toledo vs Massachusetts-17.550.5W 38 - 23
Sat 9/14 Toledo at Mississippi State+10.556.5W 41 - 17
Sat 9/21 Toledo at Western Kentucky-2.060.5L 21 - 26
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Toledo vs Miami (OH)-4.544.0W 30 - 20
Sat 10/12 Toledo at Buffalo-10.544.5L 15 - 30
Sat 10/19 Toledo at Northern Illinois+3.042.5W 13 - 6
Sat 10/26 Toledo vs Bowling Green-1.547.5L 26 - 41
Sat 11/2 Toledo at Eastern Michigan-10.054.5W 29 - 28
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12 Toledo vs Central Michigan-15.052.5W 37 - 10
Wed 11/20 Toledo vs Ohio-1.547.0L 7 - 24
Tue 11/26 Toledo at Akron-9.550.5L 14 - 21
Thu 12/26 Toledo vs Pittsburgh+6.548.5W 48 - 46
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/31 Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky-26.561.5W 56 - 7
Sat 9/7 Mississippi State at Arizona State+6.557.5L 23 - 30
Sat 9/14 Mississippi State vs Toledo-10.556.5L 17 - 41
Sat 9/21 Mississippi State vs Florida+6.558.0L 28 - 45
Sat 9/28 Mississippi State at Texas+37.058.5L 13 - 35
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Mississippi State at Georgia+34.053.5L 31 - 41
Sat 10/19 Mississippi State vs Texas A&M+21.055.5L 24 - 34
Sat 10/26 Mississippi State vs Arkansas+7.555.0L 25 - 58
Sat 11/2 Mississippi State vs Massachusetts-19.559.5W 45 - 20
Sat 11/9 Mississippi State at Tennessee+26.561.5L 14 - 33
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Mississippi State vs Missouri+9.558.0L 20 - 39
Fri 11/29 Mississippi State at Ole Miss+26.563.5L 14 - 26
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

TOL's OC Mike Hallett vs MSST's DC Matt Barnes     MSST's OC Jeff Lebby vs TOL's DC Vince Kehres

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#27 (.28)45% (34)28.346% (38)3.36 (20)19945% (37)2204.44 (26)#22 (.1)38% (29)23.241% (54)36% (14)3.33 (22)61.91.51.3
MSST#116 (.09)36% (126)25.838% (123)2.91 (105)14735% (120)1823.47 (96)#61 (.17)42% (71)34.142% (64)43% (84)4.33 (115)56.81.21
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1428.322.245.2%4.441.5204191992205.357%42%46%45%13%.28
MSST Defense1234.134.942.3%4.331 - - - - - 52%47%42%43%16%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1423.221.338.4%3.331.3 - - - - - 51%48%41%36%17%.1
MSST Offense1225.830.735.9%3.471.2173291471824.450%49%38%35%16%.09

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1427:5520.344%59%6.661.91.51.35.12.5231
Mississippi State1228:4016.631%42%6.356.81.215.62.3229.9
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1457% (17)46% (38)37.4198.95.331 (17).2 (41)3.36 (20)81% (14)8% (24)1.05 (38)
MSST Defense1252% (97)42% (64) - - - - .1 (41)2.97 (45)74% (74)11% (51)0.92 (32)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1451% (82)41% (54) - - - - .14 (66)3.12 (72)73% (71)10% (73)0.99 (64)
MSST Offense1250% (64)38% (123)33.4146.84.412 (116).07 (113)2.91 (105)59% (128)11% (81)1.02 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1442% (116)45% (37)16.626.9220.28.213.326 (31)10 (56).42 (24)1.7 (24)32% (80)32% (59).38 (52)5% (35)2 (78)
MSST Defense1247% (35)43% (84) - - - - - - 7 (111).29 (84)1.6 (55)30% (105)29% (49).36 (90)5% (107)2 (57)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1448% (46)36% (14) - - - - - - 11 (53).12 (10)1.5 (43)34% (45)25% (17).2 (17)8% (16)2 (61)
MSST Offense1249% (67)35% (120)16.829181.86.310.915 (96)10 (56).13 (115)1.6 (52)36% (129)26% (104).19 (106)6% (65)2 (98)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Toledo's Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
2024 Talent Rating: 612.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Toledo's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Toledo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Toledo's SP+ Ratings
Toledo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 516.17
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -9.50   Mississippi State: -8.34

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -2.5   Mississippi State: -4.1




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -8.34 #101
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
2024 Talent Rating: 748.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #26
Mississippi State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0

Mississippi State's SP+ Ratings
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3

Toledo's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 31
Mississippi State 25

Projected Total Points: 56
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Mississippi State17Toledo41ToledoMississippi State -10.5Toledo56.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State001 Overs
Toledo110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#99) Toledo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -9.50 #99
Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Talent Rating: 612.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0


Toledo Notes
(11/27) Awful loss @ Akron to finish. Box score W, woof
(11/27) Bad offense, bad coach, bad season
(11/27) Candle terribly conservative for GW FG, missed it
(11/13) Gleason bad, Rgame avg, Def great in CMU W
(11/2) Gleason was bad but clutch in EMU comeback
(10/21) QB Gleason inj, Richter may start vs BG
(10/20) Def great, Off awful vs NIU. 285 yds in W
(10/18) Rgame awful, Run Def torched by Buffalo
Toledo     Ratings Matchup     Mississippi State
Power #99
#101
Off #121
#100
Def #50
#130
Talent #73
#43
SP+ #80
#88
SP+ Off #88
#82
SP+ Def #64
#98

Rematch from Week 3
Mississippi State -10.5 (56.5)
Toledo won at Mississippi State this year (41-17)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Mississippi State last year (41-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain Shower
Temp: 75°Rain: 0.075


Team Information
Injuries: TOL | MSST
Depth Chart: TOL | MSST
Rosters: TOL | MSST
(#101) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -8.34 #101
Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98
Talent Rating: 748.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #26
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0


Mississippi State Notes
(12/17) QB Van Buren Jr left via portal (LSU)
(12/17) Signed QB Kromenhoek (FSU)
(11/29) 3rd down Defense worst in CFB > 48%
(11/29) Fought w/ Rebs, Def better but 3rd/4th bad
(11/13) QB Van Buren awful, Rgame OK, Run Def torched
(10/22) Def stop rate 38% (#131) last in P4 into wk 9
(10/19) Van Buren good (A&M) Def better, still fighting
(10/12) QB Van Buren torched UGA, Rgame & Def awful




  
Toledo's OC Mike Hallett
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Gleason20733562%24572277.3
John Alan Richter436764%497407.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Connor Walendzak12245713.732
Tucker Gleason8833063.835
Jacquez Stuart6123023.826
Sevaughn Clark6220903.426
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jerjuan Newton649491114.864
Junior Vandeross73763410.573
Anthony Torres27362813.478
Jacquez Stuart15170011.334
Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Michael Van Buren Jr.14025655%18861177.4
Blake Shapen7410869%974819.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Davon Booth15275955.043
Johnnie Daniels10854045.036
Keyvone Lee2914014.818
Xavier Gayten8115114.472
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.69844512.280
Jordan Mosley23405317.665
Kelly Akharaiyi25391215.649
Mario Craver17368321.672

Toledo's DC Vince Kehres
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maxen Hook1082004
Daniel Bolden918320
Braden Awls673107
Jackson Barrow649202
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Andre Ragin428551
Anthony Dunn257420
Martez Poynter257400
Darius Alexander358425
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Avery Smith5010013
Braden Awls673107
Darius Alexander358425
Mississippi State's DC Matt Barnes
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith1272003
Stone Blanton1244123
Nic Mitchell803012
Branden Jennings565242
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zakari Tillman304412
Branden Jennings565242
Ty Cooper292110
Kalvin Dinkins21100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brice Pollock481007
Isaac Smith1272003
Corey Ellington531003