Mississippi State at Texas Game Matchup

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (4:15 PM EDT)
Texas -37 (58.5) (0) Open: -35.5
Texas 35 - Mississippi State: 13 (SEC)

Bulldogs (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 94.5° (23% Hum)
TEX 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: -2 (SP+ -28)
PPG only: MSST: 21 - TEX: 34 (55)
TEX Win prob: 100% | Cover: 57%
MSST Travel: 568 miles

Longhorns (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 33 - 15 (41 - 14 @ Home)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/31	Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky	-26.5	61.5	W 56 - 7
Sat 9/7	Mississippi State at Arizona State	+6.5	57.5	L 23 - 30
Sat 9/14	Mississippi State vs Toledo	-10.5	56.5	L 17 - 41
Sat 9/21	Mississippi State vs Florida	+6.5	58.0	L 28 - 45
Sat 9/28	Mississippi State at Texas	+37.0	58.5	L 13 - 35
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Mississippi State at Georgia	+34.0	53.5	L 31 - 41
Sat 10/19	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	+21.0	55.5	L 24 - 34
Sat 10/26	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	+7.5	55.0	L 25 - 58
Sat 11/2	Mississippi State vs Massachusetts	-19.5	59.5	W 45 - 20
Sat 11/9	Mississippi State at Tennessee	+26.5	61.5	L 14 - 33
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+9.5	58.0	L 20 - 39
Fri 11/29	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+26.5	63.5	L 14 - 26

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/31	Texas vs Colorado State	-35.5	59.0	W 52 - 0
Sat 9/7	Texas at Michigan	-7.0	42.0	W 31 - 12
Sat 9/14	Texas vs UTSA	-36.5	56.5	W 56 - 7
Sat 9/21	Texas vs UL Monroe	-43.5	54.5	W 51 - 3
Sat 9/28	Texas vs Mississippi State	-37.0	58.5	W 35 - 13
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Texas vs Oklahoma	-16.5	48.5	W 34 - 3
Sat 10/19	Texas vs Georgia	-4.0	57.0	L 15 - 30
Sat 10/26	Texas at Vanderbilt	-17.0	50.5	W 27 - 24
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Texas vs Florida	-24.5	48.5	W 49 - 17
Sat 11/16	Texas at Arkansas	-13.0	57.5	W 20 - 10
Sat 11/23	Texas vs Kentucky	-18.5	47.0	W 31 - 14
Sat 11/30	Texas at Texas A&M	-4.5	49.5	W 17 - 7
Sat 12/7	Texas vs Georgia	-2.5	50.5	L 19 - 22
Sat 12/21	Texas vs Clemson	-13.5	49.5	W 38 - 24
Wed 1/1	Texas vs Arizona State	-13.5	52.5	W 39 - 31
Fri 1/10	Texas vs Ohio State	+6.5	51.5	L 14 - 28

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby vs TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski TEX's OC Kyle Flood vs MSST's DC Matt Barnes

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#116 (.09)	36% (126)	25.8	38% (123)	2.91 (105)	147	35% (120)	182	3.47 (96)	#61 (.17)	42% (71)	34.1	42% (64)	43% (84)	4.33 (115)	56.8	1.2	1
TEX	#33 (.28)	45% (43)	33	42% (81)	3.19 (54)	176	48% (16)	266	3.84 (75)	#15 (.1)	36% (14)	15.3	33% (5)	38% (26)	3.43 (38)	47.5	1.1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TEX		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	12	25.8	19	35.9%	3.47	1.2	17	329	147	182	4.4	50%	49%	38%	35%	16%	.09
TEX Defense	14	15.3	13.5	35.9%	3.43	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	33%	38%	19%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	12	34.1	33	42.3%	4.33	1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	43%	16%	.17
TEX Offense	14	33	40.9	44.7%	3.84	1.1	21	442	176	266	4.9	49%	51%	42%	48%	14%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	12	28:40	16.6	31%	42%	6.3	56.8	1.2	1	5.6	2.3	2	29.9
Texas	14	29:31	21.4	39%	63%	5.9	47.5	1.1	1.6	5.4	2.1	5	31

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	12	50% (64)	38% (123)	33.4	146.8	4.4	12 (116)	.07 (113)	2.91 (105)	59% (128)	11% (81)	1.02 (55)
TEX Defense	14	41% (4)	33% (5)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (4)	2.45 (5)	54% (2)	11% (37)	0.79 (5)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	12	52% (97)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.1 (41)	2.97 (45)	74% (74)	11% (51)	0.92 (32)
TEX Offense	14	49% (80)	42% (81)	35.6	175.6	4.9	26 (30)	.21 (35)	3.19 (54)	64% (121)	8% (33)	1.13 (14)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	12	49% (67)	35% (120)	16.8	29	181.8	6.3	10.9	15 (96)	10 (56)	.13 (115)	1.6 (52)	36% (129)	26% (104)	.19 (106)	6% (65)	2 (98)
TEX Defense	14	58% (131)	38% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.24 (52)	1.7 (92)	36% (20)	28% (31)	.27 (42)	8% (15)	2.1 (87)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	12	47% (35)	43% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.29 (84)	1.6 (55)	30% (105)	29% (49)	.36 (90)	5% (107)	2 (57)
TEX Offense	14	51% (50)	48% (16)	20.9	30.9	266.4	8.6	12.7	24 (41)	9 (40)	.35 (38)	1.5 (102)	30% (32)	34% (32)	.45 (32)	5% (46)	2.1 (52)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: #NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: #NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: #NR
2024 Talent Rating: 748.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Mississippi State's 2024 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Mississippi State's SP+ Ratings
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: Texas: 2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -4.1 Texas: 24.1

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 2 #NR
Texas's Offense Rating: #NR
Texas's Defense Rating: #NR
2024 Talent Rating: 1014.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #NR
Texas's 2024 Expected Record: -

Texas's SP+ Ratings
Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.1 #7
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #13
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.8 #2

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Texas 34
Mississippi State 21

Projected Total Points: 55

Texas Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.9
Defense: 15.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.5

Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Texas	35	Mississippi State	13	Texas	Texas -37	Mississippi State	58.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas	1	0	0 Overs
Mississippi State	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#NR) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98
Talent Rating: 748.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -

Mississippi State Notes
(12/17) QB Van Buren Jr left via portal (LSU)
(12/17) Signed QB Kromenhoek (FSU)
(11/29) 3rd down Defense worst in CFB > 48%
(11/29) Fought w/ Rebs, Def better but 3rd/4th bad
(11/13) QB Van Buren awful, Rgame OK, Run Def torched
(10/22) Def stop rate 38% (#131) last in P4 into wk 9
(10/19) Van Buren good (A&M) Def better, still fighting
(10/12) QB Van Buren torched UGA, Rgame & Def awful

Mississippi State Ratings Matchup Texas

Power #NR

#NR

Off #NR

#NR

Def #NR

#NR

Talent #43

SP+ #88

SP+ Off #82

#13

SP+ Def #98

Rematch from Week 5
Texas -37.0 (58.5)
Texas won vs Mississippi State this year (35-13)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Mississippi State last year (35-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 95° - Wind: 9 mph

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | TEX
Depth Chart: MSST | TEX
Rosters: MSST | TEX

(#NR) Texas Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2 #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: 24.1 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #13
Defense SP+ Rating: 10.8 #2
Talent Rating: 1014.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #NR
Expected Record: -

Texas Notes
(11/30) Mauled A&M for 240/4.8. Ewers OK, Def incredible
(11/23) Meh vs UK. Ewers avg, Rgame great (250, 5.3 ypc)
(11/18) Struggle W @ Ark, Rgame bad. Run Def great
(10/28) QB Ewers still looks limited (oblique inj)
(10/27) OL bad vs Vandy, 106 yds, 3.3ypc, 5 Ewers sacks
(10/23) DB's are a top unit, top 3 in sched adj pass rating
(10/19) Killed by UGA, OL dominated. Ewers/Rgame bad
(10/12) Dominated OU. Run Def great, Ewers/Rgame good

Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Michael Van Buren Jr.	140	256	55%	1886	11	7	7.4
Blake Shapen	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davon Booth	152	759	5	5.0	43
Johnnie Daniels	108	540	4	5.0	36
Keyvone Lee	29	140	1	4.8	18
Xavier Gayten	8	115	1	14.4	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.	69	844	5	12.2	80
Jordan Mosley	23	405	3	17.6	65
Kelly Akharaiyi	25	391	2	15.6	49
Mario Craver	17	368	3	21.6	72

Texas's OC Kyle Flood

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Quinn Ewers	293	445	66%	3472	31	12	7.8
Arch Manning	61	90	68%	938	9	2	10.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Wisner	226	1064	5	4.7	43
Jaydon Blue	134	730	8	5.4	77
Jerrick Gibson	78	377	4	4.8	25
Arch Manning	25	108	4	4.3	67

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matthew Golden	58	987	9	17.0	54
Gunnar Helm	60	786	7	13.1	49
Isaiah Bond	34	540	5	15.9	56
DeAndre Moore Jr.	39	455	7	11.7	49

Mississippi State's DC Matt Barnes

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton	124	4	1	2	3
Nic Mitchell	80	3	0	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zakari Tillman	30	4	4	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2
Ty Cooper	29	2	1	1	0
Kalvin Dinkins	2	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Brice Pollock	48	1	7
Isaac Smith	127	2	3
Corey Ellington	53	1	3

Texas's DC Pete Kwiatkowski

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Hill Jr.	113	17	8	4	1
Michael Taaffe	78	6	2	1	10
Andrew Mukuba	69	4	0	1	6
Jahdae Barron	67	3	1	2	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Simmons	48	14	9	9	2
Anthony Hill Jr.	113	17	8	4	1
Trey Moore	36	11	7	6	1
Barryn Sorrell	43	11	6	12	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahdae Barron	67	3	1	2	10
Michael Taaffe	78	6	2	1	10
Malik Muhammad	36	1	0	0	8