Mississippi State at Tennessee Game Matchup
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at Tennessee VolunteersTennessee logo
Saturday, November 9th 2024 (7:00 PM EST)
Tennessee -26.5 (61.5) (-2800)  Open: -24.0 | 61.0
Tennessee 33 - Mississippi State: 14  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TENN 4th straight Home Game
Our Line: Tennessee -27.5    (SP+ -26)
PPG only: MSST: 21 - TENN: 35 (56)
TENN Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
MSST Travel: 326 miles, 1 hrs behind
Volunteers (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (27 - 12)
Avg Score : 36 - 16 (43 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/31 Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky-26.561.5W 56 - 7
Sat 9/7 Mississippi State at Arizona State+6.557.5L 23 - 30
Sat 9/14 Mississippi State vs Toledo-10.556.5L 17 - 41
Sat 9/21 Mississippi State vs Florida+6.558.0L 28 - 45
Sat 9/28 Mississippi State at Texas+37.058.5L 13 - 35
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Mississippi State at Georgia+34.053.5L 31 - 41
Sat 10/19 Mississippi State vs Texas A&M+21.055.5L 24 - 34
Sat 10/26 Mississippi State vs Arkansas+7.555.0L 25 - 58
Sat 11/2 Mississippi State vs Massachusetts-19.559.5W 45 - 20
Sat 11/9 Mississippi State at Tennessee+26.561.5L 14 - 33
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Mississippi State vs Missouri+9.558.0L 20 - 39
Fri 11/29 Mississippi State at Ole Miss+26.563.5L 14 - 26
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/31 Tennessee vs Chattanooga-38.556.5W 69 - 3
Sat 9/7 Tennessee vs NC State-10.060.5W 51 - 10
Sat 9/14 Tennessee vs Kent State-49.561.5W 71 - 0
Sat 9/21 Tennessee at Oklahoma-6.057.0W 25 - 15
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Tennessee at Arkansas-14.057.5L 14 - 19
Sat 10/12 Tennessee vs Florida-13.554.5W 23 - 17
Sat 10/19 Tennessee vs Alabama+3.557.5W 24 - 17
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Tennessee vs Kentucky-17.545.5W 28 - 18
Sat 11/9 Tennessee vs Mississippi State-26.561.5W 33 - 14
Sat 11/16 Tennessee at Georgia+8.547.0L 17 - 31
Sat 11/23 Tennessee vs UTEP-41.554.0W 56 - 0
Sat 11/30 Tennessee at Vanderbilt-9.545.5W 36 - 23
Sat 12/21 Tennessee at Ohio State+7.547.0L 17 - 42
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby vs TENN's DC Tim Banks     TENN's OC Joey Halzle vs MSST's DC Matt Barnes

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#116 (.09)36% (126)25.838% (123)2.91 (105)14735% (120)1823.47 (96)#61 (.17)42% (71)34.142% (64)43% (84)4.33 (115)56.81.21
TENN#36 (.27)46% (24)35.746% (39)3.31 (30)18747% (25)2323.56 (94)#54 (.16)39% (35)16.137% (19)41% (65)3.41 (34)65.60.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TENN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1225.81935.9%3.471.2173291471824.450%49%38%35%16%.09
TENN Defense1316.19.938.9%3.411.2 - - - - - 48%52%37%41%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1234.13342.3%4.331 - - - - - 52%47%42%43%16%.17
TENN Offense1335.743.446.3%3.560.9204191872325.651%49%46%47%13%.27

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1228:4016.631%42%6.356.81.215.62.3229.9
Tennessee1322:3219.943%31%7.565.60.91.27.22.8430.3
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1250% (64)38% (123)33.4146.84.412 (116).07 (113)2.91 (105)59% (128)11% (81)1.02 (55)
TENN Defense1348% (41)37% (19) - - - - .05 (21)2.71 (15)65% (24)13% (11)1.03 (85)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1252% (97)42% (64) - - - - .1 (41)2.97 (45)74% (74)11% (51)0.92 (32)
TENN Offense1351% (60)46% (39)33.5186.95.620 (61).22 (28)3.31 (30)72% (80)7% (16)1.05 (39)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1249% (67)35% (120)16.829181.86.310.915 (96)10 (56).13 (115)1.6 (52)36% (129)26% (104).19 (106)6% (65)2 (98)
TENN Defense1352% (96)41% (65) - - - - - - 10 (67).29 (85)1.6 (85)35% (27)31% (82).36 (93)5% (100)2 (41)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1247% (35)43% (84) - - - - - - 7 (111).29 (84)1.6 (55)30% (105)29% (49).36 (90)5% (107)2 (57)
TENN Offense1349% (69)47% (25)19.330.1231.77.71221 (65)5 (6).35 (39)1.5 (110)30% (39)32% (64).38 (54)6% (68)2.1 (63)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -10.34 #101
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
2024 Talent Rating: 748.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #26
Mississippi State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Mississippi State's SP+ Ratings
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -10.34   Tennessee: 17.13

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -4.1   Tennessee: 22.0




Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 17.13 #14
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 20.60 #61
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 3.79 #16
2024 Talent Rating: 932.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #12
Tennessee's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Tennessee's SP+ Ratings
Tennessee's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.0 #9
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #6

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 35
Mississippi State 21

Projected Total Points: 56
Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.4
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 9.9

Tennessee's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09Tennessee33Mississippi State14TennesseeTennessee -26.5Mississippi State61.5Under
201910/12Tennessee20Mississippi State10TennesseeMississippi State -5Tennessee52.5Under
201210/13Mississippi State41Tennessee31Mississippi State
200810/18Tennessee34Mississippi State3Tennessee
200710/13Mississippi State21Tennessee33Tennessee
200311/15Tennessee59Mississippi State21Tennessee
200211/16Mississippi State17Tennessee35Tennessee
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tennessee610 Overs
Mississippi State112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 21 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams2 - 51 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#101) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -10.34 #101
Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98
Talent Rating: 748.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #26
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0


Mississippi State Notes
(12/17) QB Van Buren Jr left via portal (LSU)
(12/17) Signed QB Kromenhoek (FSU)
(11/29) 3rd down Defense worst in CFB > 48%
(11/29) Fought w/ Rebs, Def better but 3rd/4th bad
(11/13) QB Van Buren awful, Rgame OK, Run Def torched
(10/22) Def stop rate 38% (#131) last in P4 into wk 9
(10/19) Van Buren good (A&M) Def better, still fighting
(10/12) QB Van Buren torched UGA, Rgame & Def awful
Mississippi State     Ratings Matchup     Tennessee
Power #101
#14
Off #100
#61
Def #130
#16
Talent #43
#12
SP+ #88
#9
SP+ Off #82
#23
SP+ Def #98
#6

Rematch from Week 11
Tennessee -26.5 (61.5)
Tennessee won vs Mississippi State this year (33-14)

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Mississippi State last year (33-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Neyland Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 62°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | TENN
Depth Chart: MSST | TENN
Rosters: MSST | TENN
(#14) Tennessee Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 17.13 #14
Offense Rating: 20.60 #61
Defense Rating: 3.79 #16
Overall SP+ Rating: 22.0 #9
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #6
Talent Rating: 932.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #12
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0


Tennessee Notes
(11/27) Nico 12/15 TDs vs Kent, MSU, Chat, NC St, UTEP
(11/18) Cannot play w/ UGA. Pass Def torched, Nico poor
(11/13) Rgame great vs MSU, Nico hurt, Pass Def great
(11/2) Tenn has not scored in the 1st half since Sept 21
(10/20) Def held Bama to 3 yds on last 4 drives in W
(10/19) Rgame better vs Bama. Nico bad, Def v good
(10/14) LB and captain Pili out for season (ACL)
(10/12) Off awful vs UF, 3.3 ypc, Nico rough. Gutty W




  
Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Michael Van Buren Jr.14025655%18861177.4
Blake Shapen7410869%974819.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Davon Booth15275955.043
Johnnie Daniels10854045.036
Keyvone Lee2914014.818
Xavier Gayten8115114.472
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.69844512.280
Jordan Mosley23405317.665
Kelly Akharaiyi25391215.649
Mario Craver17368321.672
Tennessee's OC Joey Halzle
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nico Iamaleava21333464%26161957.8
Gaston Moore162759%201227.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Sampson2581491225.856
DeSean Bishop7445536.153
Nico Iamaleava10936433.331
Peyton Lewis6433935.335
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dont'E Thornton26661625.486
Bru McCoy39472212.142
Squirrel White34381211.245
Chris Brazzell II29333211.553

Mississippi State's DC Matt Barnes
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith1272003
Stone Blanton1244123
Nic Mitchell803012
Branden Jennings565242
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zakari Tillman304412
Branden Jennings565242
Ty Cooper292110
Kalvin Dinkins21100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brice Pollock481007
Isaac Smith1272003
Corey Ellington531003
Tennessee's DC Tim Banks
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arion Carter687036
Will Brooks594115
Jermod McCoy441007
Jeremiah Telander434111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
James Pearce Jr.38138101
Omarr Norman-Lott184430
Jayson Jenkins94200
Dominic Bailey254250
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jermod McCoy441007
Arion Carter687036
Will Brooks594115