Penn State at USC Game Matchup
Penn State logo Penn State Nittany Lions at USC TrojansUSC logo
Saturday, October 12th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Penn State -3.5 (51.5) (-185)  Open: -5.5 | 47.5
Penn State 33 - USC: 30  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (88 - 39)
Avg Score : 33 - 17 (34 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Penn State -15    (SP+ -12.5)
PPG only: PSU: 29 - USC: 23 (52)
PSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
PSU Travel: 2247 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Trojans (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (37 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/31 Penn State at West Virginia-7.548.0W 34 - 12
Sat 9/7 Penn State vs Bowling Green-35.551.5W 34 - 27
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Penn State vs Kent State-49.058.0W 56 - 0
Sat 9/28 Penn State vs Illinois-19.548.0W 21 - 7
Sat 10/5 Penn State vs UCLA-30.048.0W 27 - 11
Sat 10/12 Penn State at USC-3.551.5W 33 - 30
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Penn State at Wisconsin-6.547.0W 28 - 13
Sat 11/2 Penn State vs Ohio State+3.047.5L 13 - 20
Sat 11/9 Penn State vs Washington-13.548.0W 35 - 6
Sat 11/16 Penn State at Purdue-30.051.5W 49 - 10
Sat 11/23 Penn State at Minnesota-11.045.0W 26 - 25
Sat 11/30 Penn State vs Maryland-26.550.5W 44 - 7
Sat 12/7 Penn State vs Oregon+3.551.5L 37 - 45
Sat 12/21 Penn State vs SMU-9.052.5W 38 - 10
Tue 12/31 Penn State vs Boise State-11.554.5W 31 - 14
Thu 1/9 Penn State vs Notre Dame-1.545.5L 24 - 27
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
USC's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sun 9/1 USC vs LSU+4.066.5W 27 - 20
Sat 9/7 USC vs Utah State-30.562.5W 48 - 0
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 USC at Michigan-4.044.0L 24 - 27
Sat 9/28 USC vs Wisconsin-14.050.5W 38 - 21
Sat 10/5 USC at Minnesota-8.545.5L 17 - 24
Sat 10/12 USC vs Penn State+3.551.5L 30 - 33
Sat 10/19 USC at Maryland-6.556.5L 28 - 29
Fri 10/25 USC vs Rutgers-14.057.0W 42 - 20
Sat 11/2 USC at Washington-2.055.0L 21 - 26
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 USC vs Nebraska-6.551.0W 28 - 20
Sat 11/23 USC at UCLA-5.053.0W 19 - 13
Sat 11/30 USC vs Notre Dame+6.552.5L 35 - 49
Fri 12/27 USC vs Texas A&M+3.556.5W 35 - 31
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki vs USC's DC D'Anton Lynn     USC's OC Josh Henson vs PSU's DC Tom Allen

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#40 (.25)46% (25)33.149% (17)3.38 (14)18543% (53)2154.96 (5)#8 (.04)33% (3)16.531% (3)36% (10)3.09 (15)43.30.61.8
USC#6 (.39)47% (15)30.248% (20)3.19 (52)13447% (21)3334.99 (4)#122 (.29)46% (121)24.149% (125)43% (91)3.55 (49)64.91.31.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense1333.13446.3%4.960.6234001852154.750%49%49%43%11%.25
USC Defense1324.123.845.8%3.551.2 - - - - - 51%49%49%43%14%.29
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1316.51833.1%3.091.8 - - - - - 49%50%31%36%23%.04
USC Offense1330.236.847.5%4.991.3224671343334.841%59%48%47%14%.39

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1332:3022.541%77%543.30.61.87.83.8333.8
USC1327:3322.543%61%7.364.91.31.25.51.9330.3
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1350% (65)49% (17)39.6184.84.726 (30).19 (46)3.38 (14)73% (77)7% (8)0.85 (123)
USC Defense1351% (83)49% (125) - - - - .29 (128)3.31 (110)73% (64)10% (64)1.07 (100)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1349% (52)31% (3) - - - - -.04 (7)2.23 (2)76% (89)18% (1)0.96 (46)
USC Offense1341% (123)48% (20)27.8133.64.833 (8).29 (8)3.19 (52)78% (28)10% (65)1.2 (2)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1349% (63)43% (53)18.931.72156.811.430 (16)2 (1).3 (62)1.5 (115)27% (9)35% (23).38 (50)4% (7)1.7 (129)
USC Defense1349% (60)43% (91) - - - - - - 7 (111).32 (98)1.7 (90)31% (87)34% (115).4 (108)4% (129)2.1 (92)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1350% (77)36% (10) - - - - - - 12 (37).2 (25)1.7 (94)39% (2)26% (19).21 (21)6% (86)2.1 (74)
USC Offense1359% (10)47% (21)24.235.53339.413.837 (4)6 (14).47 (14)1.7 (20)29% (22)37% (14).65 (4)4% (15)2.3 (12)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 24.26 #6
Penn State's Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
2024 Talent Rating: 936.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #15
Penn State's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4

Penn State's SP+ Ratings
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.26   USC: 9.42

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 24.6   USC: 11.9




USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 9.42 #37
USC's Offense Rating: 20.62 #60
USC's Defense Rating: 10.19 #74
2024 Talent Rating: 882.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
USC's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0

USC's SP+ Ratings
USC's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9 #23
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.6 #15
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #48

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 18

Penn State's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 29
USC 23

Projected Total Points: 52
USC Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.8

USC's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/12USC30Penn State33Penn StatePenn State -3.5USC51.5Over
201601/02Penn State49USC52USCUSC -6.5Penn State60.0Over
200801/01USC38Penn State24USC
200008/26USC29Penn State5USC
TeamWinsCoversO/U
USC312 Overs
Penn State110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 22 - 00 - 02 - 0
Road Teams2 - 20 - 20 - 20 - 0

(#6) Penn State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 24.26 #6
Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4
Talent Rating: 936.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #15
Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0


Penn State Notes
(11/26) Star OT Donkoh out for season (knee)
(11/23) Dog fight @ Minn. 2 kicks blocked. 3.5 ypc
(11/13) Off much better vs Wash, 220 pass, 266 run
(11/3) WR are bad. Allar OK but has no weapons w/o TE
(11/2) Franklin 1-10 vs top 10. Same shit, diff year
(11/2) Off did not score vs OSU. Allar meh, WR awful
(10/27) QB Allar missed 2nd H Wisconsin game
(10/27) Off efficient and spread out vs Wisky, Def good
Penn State     Ratings Matchup     USC
Power #6
#37
Off #2
#60
Def #7
#74
Talent #11
#17
SP+ #5
#23
SP+ Off #9
#15
SP+ Def #4
#48

Rematch from Week 7
Penn State 3.5 (51.5)
Penn State won at USC this year (33-30)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat USC last year (33-30)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 80° - Wind: 9 mph


Team Information
Injuries: PSU | USC
Depth Chart: PSU | USC
Rosters: PSU | USC
(#37) USC Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 9.42 #37
Offense Rating: 20.62 #60
Defense Rating: 10.19 #74
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9 #23
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.6 #15
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #48
Talent Rating: 882.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 41 #16
Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0


USC Notes
(11/30) Maiavia torched ND, Run D mauled, 2 late Int's
(11/25) 5 L's by an avg of 3.8 ppg. Have lead all in 4th
(11/24) Def good in UCLA W. Rgame bad, Maiava OK
(11/18) Maiavia OK, Rgame good, Def good in Neb W
(11/5) QB Maiava replacing Moss for Nebraska game
(11/3) Riley 2-11 at SC as a Road Favorite
(11/2) 0-4 in road games. 3 TO's, poorly coached
(10/19) Into Rutgers wk, L Riley is 5-9 in last 13 gms




  
Penn State's OC Andy Kotelnicki
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar26239467%33272488.4
Beau Pribula263574%275517.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen220110885.032
Nicholas Singleton1721099126.458
Drew Allar9630263.122
Beau Pribula3824246.449
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyler Warren1041233811.938
Harrison Wallace III47732415.650
Omari Evans20403520.259
Nicholas Singleton4137559.127
USC's OC Josh Henson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss23336264%25551897.1
Jayden Maiava10116960%12011167.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jo'quavious Marks198113395.765
Quinten Joyner6347837.675
Bryan Jackson3618815.223
A'Marion Peterson166514.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Makai Lemon52764314.770
Ja'Kobi Lane435251212.233
Zachariah Branch47503110.742
Kyron Ware-Hudson38462312.239

Penn State's DC Tom Allen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Reed957312
Kobe King878311
Zakee Wheatley863104
Abdul Carter62241294
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Abdul Carter62241294
Dani Dennis-Sutton4013993
Amin Vanover215431
Jaylen Reed957312
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliot Washington II251006
A.J. Harris413005
Cam Miller233025
USC's DC D'Anton Lynn
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold945221
Mason Cobb723003
Kamari Ramsey606215
Akili Arnold591111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braylan Shelby285321
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold945221
Kamari Ramsey606215
Eric Gentry337201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DeCarlos Nicholson270005
Kamari Ramsey606215
Zion Branch192103