Massachusetts at Buffalo Game Matchup
Massachusetts logo Massachusetts Minutemen at Buffalo BullsBuffalo logo
Saturday, September 14th 2024 (1:00 PM EDT)
Buffalo -3.5 (45.5) (-165)  Open: -5.5 | 45.5
Buffalo 34 - Massachusetts: 3

 
Minutemen (2 - 10) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Shane Montgomery (Int) (4 - 20)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (18 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UMASS 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Buffalo -5.5    (SP+ -18)
PPG only: UMASS: 25 - BUFF: 32 (57)
BUFF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UMASS Travel: 320 miles
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/31 Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan-2.549.0L 14 - 28
Sat 9/7 Massachusetts at Toledo+17.550.5L 23 - 38
Sat 9/14 Massachusetts at Buffalo+3.545.5L 3 - 34
Sat 9/21 Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut-19.552.0W 35 - 31
Sat 9/28 Massachusetts at Miami (OH)+15.544.5L 20 - 23
Sat 10/5 Massachusetts at Northern Illinois+14.041.0L 20 - 34
Sat 10/12 Massachusetts vs Missouri+27.054.0L 3 - 45
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Massachusetts vs Wagner-23.048.0W 35 - 7
Sat 11/2 Massachusetts at Mississippi State+19.559.5L 20 - 45
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Massachusetts vs Liberty+17.053.0L 34 - 35
Sat 11/23 Massachusetts at Georgia+42.555.5L 21 - 59
Sat 11/30 Massachusetts vs UConn+9.549.5L 42 - 47
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Thu 8/29 Buffalo vs Lafayette-3.545.5W 30 - 13
Sat 9/7 Buffalo at Missouri+34.553.5L 0 - 38
Sat 9/14 Buffalo vs Massachusetts-3.545.5W 34 - 3
Sat 9/21 Buffalo at Northern Illinois+13.042.5W 23 - 20
Sat 9/28 Buffalo at UConn+6.044.5L 3 - 47
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Buffalo vs Toledo+10.544.5W 30 - 15
Sat 10/19 Buffalo vs Western Michigan+1.049.5L 41 - 48
Sat 10/26 Buffalo at Ohio+4.046.5L 16 - 47
Sat 11/2 Buffalo at Akron+1.049.0W 41 - 30
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12 Buffalo vs Ball State-3.555.5W 51 - 48
Wed 11/20 Buffalo at Eastern Michigan+1.053.5W 37 - 20
Tue 11/26 Buffalo vs Kent State-23.550.5W 43 - 7
Sat 1/4 Buffalo vs Liberty-4.550.5W 26 - 7
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

UMASS's OC Shane Montgomery vs BUFF's DC Joe Bowen     BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude vs UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UMASS#72 (.18)42% (68)22.545% (47)3.35 (21)14240% (86)2143.73 (82)#124 (.31)49% (132)35.553% (131)43% (92)4.31 (114)70.91.41.2
BUFF#130 (.03)37% (116)28.843% (67)2.93 (102)13432% (129)1853.54 (95)#41 (.14)39% (33)26.437% (25)42% (68)3.55 (48)41.61.61.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UMASS Offense1222.517.842%3.731.4183561422144.451%48%45%40%21%.18
BUFF Defense1226.422.338.7%3.551.6 - - - - - 56%43%37%42%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UMASS Defense1235.538.848.5%4.311.2 - - - - - 58%42%53%43%15%.31
BUFF Offense1228.838.237.4%3.541.6173191341853.751%48%43%32%16%.03

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Massachusetts1229:4517.836%23%870.91.41.24.51.5226.5
Buffalo1230:3217.234%37%4.841.61.61.65.71.4229.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense1251% (59)45% (47)32.5142.24.419 (69).25 (18)3.35 (21)62% (125)14% (127)1.14 (11)
BUFF Defense1256% (119)37% (25) - - - - .15 (76)2.82 (24)65% (25)12% (19)1.25 (131)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense1258% (130)53% (131) - - - - .34 (131)3.83 (133)85% (123)9% (89)1 (69)
BUFF Offense1251% (61)43% (67)36.3133.63.715 (100).09 (102)2.93 (102)65% (119)9% (40)0.92 (103)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense1248% (76)40% (86)17.729214.17.412.114 (106)11 (68).18 (99)1.5 (85)32% (62)33% (50).43 (35)7% (109)2.2 (36)
BUFF Defense1243% (13)42% (68) - - - - - - 11 (53).2 (29)1.4 (18)35% (32)28% (39).23 (30)5% (95)2 (54)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense1242% (4)43% (92) - - - - - - 8 (100).31 (94)1.8 (122)29% (121)37% (125).47 (124)6% (90)1.9 (30)
BUFF Offense1248% (77)32% (129)17.732.8185.35.610.514 (106)11 (68).04 (130)1.5 (99)32% (68)26% (108).16 (116)8% (119)1.9 (109)

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -16.22 #115
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 19.80 #69
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 17.13 #122
2024 Talent Rating: 496.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Massachusetts's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Massachusetts's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9 #129
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Massachusetts's SP+ Ratings
Massachusetts's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9 #129
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 641.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -16.22   Buffalo: -10.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -21.9   Buffalo: -4.0




Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -10.53 #106
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
2024 Talent Rating: 384.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Buffalo's SP+ Ratings
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 516.17
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 35.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.8

Massachusetts's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 32
Massachusetts 25

Projected Total Points: 57
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.2
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Buffalo34Massachusetts3BuffaloBuffalo -3.5Buffalo45.5Under
202210/15Massachusetts7Buffalo34BuffaloBuffalo -17Buffalo47.5Under
201511/27Buffalo26Massachusetts31MassachusettsBuffalo -6Massachusetts55.0Over
201411/28Massachusetts21Buffalo41BuffaloBuffalo -1Buffalo0
201310/19Buffalo32Massachusetts3BuffaloBuffalo -20.5Buffalo0
201211/17Massachusetts19Buffalo29Buffalo
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Buffalo541 Overs
Massachusetts112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 42 - 32 - 10 - 2
Road Teams4 - 23 - 22 - 01 - 2

(#115) Massachusetts Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -16.22 #115
Offense Rating: 19.80 #69
Defense Rating: 17.13 #122
Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9 #129
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129
Talent Rating: 496.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0


Massachusetts Notes
(12/18) Hired HC Joe Harasymiak (Rutgers DC)
(11/18) HC Brown fired, OC Montgomery interim
(11/18) 1-5 stretch, fight w/ Liberty, Rgame good
(9/14) Very competitive 0-2. Outgained Toledo by 100 yds
(8/11) Play Clanga/Mizzu/Liberty/UGA weeks 7-13
(7/30) Lost a ton via portal, did add some. Depth issues.
(7/30) HC Brown improving each year, could they bowl?
(7/30) OL portal rebuild, top 2 RB's portaled out
Massachusetts     Ratings Matchup     Buffalo
Power #115
#106
Off #69
#104
Def #122
#93
Talent #100
#120
SP+ #129
#87
SP+ Off #110
#84
SP+ Def #129
#93

Rematch from Week 3
Buffalo -3.5 (45.5)
Buffalo won vs Massachusetts this year (34-3)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Massachusetts last year (34-3)
Buffalo beat Massachusetts in 2022 (34-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 83° - Wind: 6 mph


Team Information
Injuries: UMASS | BUFF
Depth Chart: UMASS | BUFF
Rosters: UMASS | BUFF
(#106) Buffalo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -10.53 #106
Offense Rating: 15.34 #104
Defense Rating: 12.34 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Talent Rating: 384.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0


Buffalo Notes
(11/27) Hot finish, note it was vs bottom of MAC
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success




  
Massachusetts's OC Shane Montgomery
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taisun Phommachanh13223456%1590866.8
AJ Hairston407355%480506.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen John11158355.368
C.J. Hester11952944.424
Taisun Phommachanh10731733.033
Brandon Campbell6123333.821
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jakobie Keeney-James51870617.175
Ty Harding18303516.858
Jacquon Gibson23270111.739
Sterling Galban2521008.421
Buffalo's OC Dave Patenaude
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Ogbonna19033657%23811957.1
Gunnar Gray41136%41013.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson204107895.368
CJ Ogbonna12234682.826
Jacqez Barksdale8230623.719
Messiah Burch2915325.331
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow55651611.846
JJ Jenkins36536414.990
Al-Jay Henderson19238112.575
Taji Johnson19215211.334

Massachusetts's DC Keith Dudzinski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Stewart773312
Gerrell Johnson743122
Tyler Rudolph612003
Te'Rai Powell522001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Louce Julien437411
Kofi Asare306311
Jalen Stewart773312
Christian Lebrun222200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lake Ellis293005
Isaiah Rutherford81004
Tim Grant-Randall272003
Buffalo's DC Joe Bowen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shaun Dolac16818545
Khalil Murdock15617241
Solomon Brown662006
Dion Crawford5815942
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Stewart40121032
Dion Crawford5815942
Shaun Dolac16818545
Antonio Colclough144341
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marquis Cooper553018
Solomon Brown662006
Shaun Dolac16818545