Florida State at Duke Game Matchup
Florida State logo Florida State Seminoles at Duke Blue DevilsDuke logo
Friday, October 18th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Duke -2.5 (43.0) (-142)  Open: -3.0
Duke 23 - Florida State: 16  (ACC)

 
Seminoles (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (31 - 17)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (12 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FSU coming off BYE
DUKE coming off BYE
Our Line: Duke -9.5    (SP+ -9)
PPG only: FSU: 20 - DUKE: 27 (47)
DUKE Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
FSU Travel: 493 miles
Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (26 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/24 Florida State vs Georgia Tech-10.054.5L 21 - 24
Mon 9/2 Florida State vs Boston College-16.550.0L 13 - 28
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Florida State vs Memphis-7.052.0L 12 - 20
Sat 9/21 Florida State vs California-3.044.0W 14 - 9
Sat 9/28 Florida State at SMU+6.046.0L 16 - 42
Sat 10/5 Florida State vs Clemson+16.547.0L 13 - 29
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Florida State at Duke+2.543.0L 16 - 23
Sat 10/26 Florida State at Miami+22.555.0L 14 - 36
Sat 11/2 Florida State vs North Carolina+2.550.5L 11 - 35
Sat 11/9 Florida State at Notre Dame+25.544.5L 3 - 52
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Florida State vs Charleston Southern-33.044.5W 41 - 7
Sat 11/30 Florida State vs Florida+17.545.5L 11 - 31
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Fri 8/30 Duke vs Elon-24.547.5W 26 - 3
Fri 9/6 Duke vs Northwestern+2.537.5W 26 - 20
Sat 9/14 Duke vs UConn-17.546.5W 26 - 21
Sat 9/21 Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.551.0W 45 - 17
Sat 9/28 Duke vs North Carolina+1.055.5W 21 - 20
Sat 10/5 Duke at Georgia Tech+10.052.5L 14 - 24
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Duke vs Florida State-2.543.0W 23 - 16
Sat 10/26 Duke vs SMU+11.549.5L 27 - 28
Sat 11/2 Duke at Miami+21.055.5L 31 - 53
Sat 11/9 Duke at NC State+3.551.5W 29 - 19
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.545.5W 31 - 28
Sat 11/30 Duke at Wake Forest-3.553.5W 23 - 17
Thu 1/2 Duke vs Ole Miss+17.550.5L 20 - 52
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

FSU's OC Alex Atkins vs DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke     DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer vs FSU's DC Adam Fuller

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#60 (.21)41% (79)15.439% (113)2.64 (128)15043% (54)2514.45 (25)#13 (.09)36% (9)2840% (38)32% (1)3.5 (47)56.60.61.2
DUKE#64 (.2)42% (69)26.342% (77)3.1 (70)16742% (66)1814.27 (31)#52 (.16)43% (86)24.543% (69)44% (101)3.47 (43)461.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
DUKE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense1415.412.341.3%4.450.6204011502514.547%53%39%43%15%.21
DUKE Defense1324.519.343.3%3.471.2 - - - - - 49%50%43%44%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense142838.335.5%3.51.2 - - - - - 49%51%40%32%21%.09
DUKE Offense1326.325.742%4.271.2193481671814.852%47%42%42%13%.2

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1429:2319.636%48%6.156.60.61.26.73.2229.5
Duke1328:5918.736%60%5.6461.21.25.52.1131.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1447% (93)39% (113)33.1150.14.532 (10).07 (111)2.64 (128)63% (123)9% (52)1.06 (35)
DUKE Defense1349% (53)43% (69) - - - - .11 (46)3.18 (90)68% (39)10% (82)0.96 (43)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1449% (49)40% (38) - - - - .12 (51)2.75 (19)77% (96)12% (20)1.07 (102)
DUKE Offense1352% (47)42% (77)34.5166.84.826 (30).17 (56)3.1 (70)66% (114)8% (20)1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1453% (39)43% (54)18.630.9250.68.113.525 (37)4 (2).34 (46)1.6 (48)32% (78)31% (66).36 (61)6% (67)2.2 (32)
DUKE Defense1350% (83)44% (101) - - - - - - 10 (67).22 (42)1.4 (3)31% (86)31% (78).3 (64)6% (56)2 (56)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1451% (90)32% (1) - - - - - - 10 (67).06 (4)1.6 (65)36% (16)27% (28).22 (22)9% (2)1.9 (24)
DUKE Offense1347% (84)42% (66)15.427.5180.86.611.814 (106)8 (30).24 (79)1.4 (122)33% (88)31% (65).4 (43)6% (62)2 (95)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: -4.89 #83
Florida State's Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
2024 Talent Rating: 950.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Florida State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58

Florida State's SP+ Ratings
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: -4.89   Duke: 4.68

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: -3.2   Duke: 5.6




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 4.68 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 716.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Duke's SP+ Ratings
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.3
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.3

Florida State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Duke 27
Florida State 20

Projected Total Points: 47
Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/18Duke23Florida State16DukeDuke -2.5Duke43.0Under
202310/21Florida State38Duke20Florida StateFlorida State -14.0Florida State49.0Over
202012/12Florida State56Duke35Florida StateFlorida State -3Florida State56.5Over
201710/14Duke10Florida State17Florida StateFlorida State -7NA45.5Under
201312/07Florida State45Duke7Florida StateFlorida State -27.5Florida State0
201210/27Florida State48Duke7Florida State
201110/15Duke16Florida State41Florida State
200710/27Florida State25Duke6Florida State
200610/14Duke24Florida State51Florida State
200510/22Duke24Florida State55Florida State
200411/06Florida State29Duke7Florida State
200309/27Duke7Florida State56Florida State
200209/21Florida State48Duke17Florida State
200109/01Duke13Florida State55Florida State
200010/13Florida State63Duke14Florida State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke112 Overs
Florida State1432 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 64 - 04 - 00 - 0
Road Teams6 - 90 - 40 - 00 - 4

(#83) Florida State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.89 #83
Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58
Talent Rating: 950.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0


Florida State Notes
(12/12) Signed QB Castellanos (BC), back w/ Gus (UCF)
(12/2) Hired HC Gus Malzahn as OC for '25 season
(12/2) Hired DC White (Neb DC, + Cuse/ASU/SDSU)
(11/18) Have not scored 17+ pts since opener (21)
(11/10) Fired OC/OLC Atkins & DC Fuller after ND loss
(11/10) Scored 60 pts in last 5 games. Fired OC/OLC
(11/2) Fmr WR K.C. told croots not to play for Dugans
(10/28) Now 5 losing season in past 7 years
Florida State     Ratings Matchup     Duke
Power #83
#50
Off #120
#113
Def #87
#17
Talent #9
#56
SP+ #83
#44
SP+ Off #114
#71
SP+ Def #58
#31

Rematch from Week 8
Duke -2.5 (43.0)
Duke won vs Florida State this year (23-16)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Florida State last year (23-16)
Florida State beat Duke in 2023 (38-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 56°

Team Information
Injuries: FSU | DUKE
Depth Chart: FSU | DUKE
Rosters: FSU | DUKE
(#50) Duke Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.68 #50
Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31
Talent Rating: 716.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0


Duke Notes
(12/11) Signed QB Mensah (Tulane QB '24)
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr




  
Florida State's OC Alex Atkins
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Uiagalelei8415654%1065466.8
Brock Glenn5111445%597455.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lawrance Toafili10945634.228
Kam Davis5217303.316
Luke Kromenhoek6311301.842
Brock Glenn359702.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Khi Douglas32519416.271
Malik Benson25311112.467
Lawrance Toafili2521508.632
Hykeem Williams16187111.733
Duke's OC Jonathan Brewer
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maalik Murphy25442160%293226127.0
Henry Belin IV264558%243215.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Star Thomas21387174.144
Peyton Jones8231733.927
Jaquez Moore328612.718
Henry Belin IV113903.511
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Moore55861815.758
Eli Pancol60798913.386
Que'Sean Brown41445210.943
Sahmir Hagans4741338.865

Florida State's DC Adam Fuller
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shyheim Brown621002
Azareye'h Thomas512024
K.J. Kirkland451002
Blake Nichelson454100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Farmer288460
Marvin Jones Jr.256430
Patrick Payton3210440
Darrell Jackson284441
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Fentrell Cypress II241015
Azareye'h Thomas512024
Kevin Knowles II311114
Duke's DC Jonathan Patke
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ozzie Nicholas1004142
Alex Howard8915761
Cameron Bergeron8410572
Terry Moore717105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Williams4713792
Alex Howard8915761
Cameron Bergeron8410572
Vincent Anthony25105133
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers548138
Jaylen Stinson674238
Joshua Pickett384007