SMU at Duke Game Matchup
SMU logo SMU Mustangs at Duke Blue DevilsDuke logo
Saturday, October 26th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
SMU -11.5 (49.5) (-460)  Open: -12.5 | 49.0
SMU 28 - Duke: 27  (ACC)

 
Mustangs (11 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (29 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
SMU 3rd straight Road Game
DUKE 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: SMU -11    (SP+ -12)
PPG only: SMU: 31 - DUKE: 24 (55)
SMU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
SMU Travel: 1039 miles, 1 hrs behind
Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (26 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
SMU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/24 SMU at Nevada-28.055.5W 29 - 24
Sat 8/31 SMU vs Houston Christian W 59 - 7
Fri 9/6 SMU vs BYU-12.555.5L 15 - 18
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 SMU vs TCU+1.058.5W 66 - 42
Sat 9/28 SMU vs Florida State-6.046.0W 42 - 16
Sat 10/5 SMU at Louisville+6.555.0W 34 - 27
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 SMU at Stanford-16.552.5W 40 - 10
Sat 10/26 SMU at Duke-11.549.5W 28 - 27
Sat 11/2 SMU vs Pittsburgh-7.055.5W 48 - 25
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 SMU vs Boston College-19.054.5W 38 - 28
Sat 11/23 SMU at Virginia-11.554.5W 33 - 7
Sat 11/30 SMU vs California-11.554.5W 38 - 6
Sat 12/7 SMU vs Clemson-2.556.5L 31 - 34
Sat 12/21 SMU at Penn State+9.052.5L 10 - 38
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Fri 8/30 Duke vs Elon-24.547.5W 26 - 3
Fri 9/6 Duke vs Northwestern+2.537.5W 26 - 20
Sat 9/14 Duke vs UConn-17.546.5W 26 - 21
Sat 9/21 Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.551.0W 45 - 17
Sat 9/28 Duke vs North Carolina+1.055.5W 21 - 20
Sat 10/5 Duke at Georgia Tech+10.052.5L 14 - 24
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Duke vs Florida State-2.543.0W 23 - 16
Sat 10/26 Duke vs SMU+11.549.5L 27 - 28
Sat 11/2 Duke at Miami+21.055.5L 31 - 53
Sat 11/9 Duke at NC State+3.551.5W 29 - 19
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.545.5W 31 - 28
Sat 11/30 Duke at Wake Forest-3.553.5W 23 - 17
Thu 1/2 Duke vs Ole Miss+17.550.5L 20 - 52
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

SMU's OC Casey Woods vs DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke     DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer vs SMU's DC Scott Symons

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#24 (.28)44% (46)36.547% (30)3.21 (49)17742% (67)2784.51 (21)#7 (.04)36% (10)22.137% (17)35% (8)3.59 (51)40.80.91.2
DUKE#64 (.2)42% (69)26.342% (77)3.1 (70)16742% (66)1814.27 (31)#52 (.16)43% (86)24.543% (69)44% (101)3.47 (43)461.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
DUKE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1436.52943.9%4.510.9244551772784.550%49%47%42%12%.28
DUKE Defense1324.519.343.3%3.471.2 - - - - - 49%50%43%44%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1422.122.235.7%3.591.2 - - - - - 47%52%37%35%19%.04
DUKE Offense1326.325.742%4.271.2193481671814.852%47%42%42%13%.2

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1430:2123.543%59%4.640.80.91.26.63.1530.4
Duke1328:5918.736%60%5.6461.21.25.52.1131.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1450% (66)47% (30)39.7176.64.529 (22).18 (52)3.21 (49)85% (2)6% (4)0.88 (122)
DUKE Defense1349% (53)43% (69) - - - - .11 (46)3.18 (90)68% (39)10% (82)0.96 (43)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1447% (38)37% (17) - - - - .04 (19)2.9 (35)67% (30)12% (23)0.97 (50)
DUKE Offense1352% (47)42% (77)34.5166.84.826 (30).17 (56)3.1 (70)66% (114)8% (20)1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1449% (71)42% (67)19.633.2278.48.414.233 (11)8 (30).45 (16)2 (3)31% (57)33% (44).38 (53)6% (58)2.1 (46)
DUKE Defense1350% (83)44% (101) - - - - - - 10 (67).22 (42)1.4 (3)31% (86)31% (78).3 (64)6% (56)2 (56)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1452% (97)35% (8) - - - - - - 12 (37).09 (8)1.7 (87)36% (18)22% (1).07 (2)8% (19)2.1 (70)
DUKE Offense1347% (84)42% (66)15.427.5180.86.611.814 (106)8 (30).24 (79)1.4 (122)33% (88)31% (65).4 (43)6% (62)2 (95)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 15.59 #13
SMU's Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
2024 Talent Rating: 734.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #47
SMU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

SMU's SP+ Ratings
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 15.59   Duke: 4.68

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 17.5   Duke: 5.6




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 4.68 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 716.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Duke's SP+ Ratings
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 31
Duke 24

Projected Total Points: 55
Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Duke27SMU28SMUSMU -11.5Duke49.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke011 Overs
SMU100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#13) SMU Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 15.59 #13
Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30
Talent Rating: 734.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #47
Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0


SMU Notes
(8/12) Metrics likely overrate reality in 1st yr in ACC
(11/25) Rgame bad, Jennings good, Def great vs UVA
(11/18) QB Jennings torched BC, Def suspect but held on
(11/2) Real deal. Routed Pitt, Rgame good, Def great
(10/27) 0-6 TOs & still beat Duke? Off good but v sloppy
(10/22) TE & lead receiver Maryland out for season
(10/22) Def stop rate 70% (#25) into Duke game
(10/8) Lead nation in points off turnovers 1st 6 wks
SMU     Ratings Matchup     Duke
Power #13
#50
Off #28
#113
Def #5
#17
Talent #47
#56
SP+ #12
#44
SP+ Off #5
#71
SP+ Def #30
#31

Rematch from Week 9
SMU 11.5 (49.5)
SMU won at Duke this year (28-27)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Duke last year (28-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 70°

Team Information
Injuries: SMU | DUKE
Depth Chart: SMU | DUKE
Rosters: SMU | DUKE
(#50) Duke Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.68 #50
Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31
Talent Rating: 716.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0


Duke Notes
(12/11) Signed QB Mensah (Tulane QB '24)
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr




  
SMU's OC Casey Woods
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings24838165%318923118.4
Preston Stone305159%421518.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brashard Smith2341330145.771
Kevin Jennings10135453.559
LJ Johnson Jr.7430354.135
Roderick Daniels4416033.613
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Roderick Daniels42601414.381
Keyshawn Smith33527516.045
Jordan Hudson39422510.842
Kelvontay Dixon21386118.487
Duke's OC Jonathan Brewer
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maalik Murphy25442160%293226127.0
Henry Belin IV264558%243215.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Star Thomas21387174.144
Peyton Jones8231733.927
Jaquez Moore328612.718
Henry Belin IV113903.511
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Moore55861815.758
Eli Pancol60798913.386
Que'Sean Brown41445210.943
Sahmir Hagans4741338.865

SMU's DC Scott Symons
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Wilson1026341
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Ahmad Walker888143
Ahmaad Moses646003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahfari Harvey3013891
Isaiah Smith319761
Jared Harrison-Hunte408750
Elijah Roberts32107101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Crossley301016
Jonathan McGill522016
Deuce Harmon282006
Duke's DC Jonathan Patke
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ozzie Nicholas1004142
Alex Howard8915761
Cameron Bergeron8410572
Terry Moore717105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Williams4713792
Alex Howard8915761
Cameron Bergeron8410572
Vincent Anthony25105133
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers548138
Jaylen Stinson674238
Joshua Pickett384007