Arkansas State at Iowa State Game Matchup

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Iowa State Cyclones

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (2:00 PM EDT)
Iowa State -20.5 (52.0) (-1600) Open: 0.0
Iowa State 52 - Arkansas State: 7

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 12.7 MPHARST 2nd straight Road Game
ISU coming off BYE
Our Line: Iowa State -22 (SP+ -20)
PPG only: ARST: 24 - ISU: 32 (56)
ISU Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
ARST Travel: 455 miles

Cyclones (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (53 - 48)
Avg Score : 31 - 23 (34 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas			W 34 - 31
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State vs Tulsa	-9.5	65.5	W 28 - 24
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Michigan	+22.0	47.5	L 18 - 28
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State at Iowa State	+20.5	52.0	L 7 - 52
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+2.5	62.5	W 18 - 16
Sat 10/12	Arkansas State at Texas State	+13.5	66.0	L 9 - 41
Sat 10/19	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	-7.0	57.0	W 44 - 28
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	-8.5	50.0	W 34 - 31
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+14.0	60.0	L 19 - 55
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+2.5	60.0	W 27 - 20
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	51.5	W 28 - 21
Sat 11/30	Arkansas State vs Old Dominion	+5.5	58.5	L 32 - 40
Thu 12/26	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/31	Iowa State vs North Dakota	-30.5	51.5	W 21 - 3
Sat 9/7	Iowa State at Iowa	+3.0	35.0	W 20 - 19
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Iowa State vs Arkansas State	-20.5	52.0	W 52 - 7
Sat 9/28	Iowa State at Houston	-16.0	43.0	W 20 - 0
Sat 10/5	Iowa State vs Baylor	-13.0	45.0	W 43 - 21
Sat 10/12	Iowa State at West Virginia	-3.0	54.0	W 28 - 16
Sat 10/19	Iowa State vs UCF	-13.0	49.5	W 38 - 35
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Iowa State vs Texas Tech	-13.5	55.0	L 22 - 23
Sat 11/9	Iowa State vs Kansas	-2.5	50.5	L 36 - 45
Sat 11/16	Iowa State vs Cincinnati	-7.0	52.5	W 34 - 17
Sat 11/23	Iowa State at Utah	-6.5	42.5	W 31 - 28
Sat 11/30	Iowa State vs Kansas State	-2.5	51.5	W 29 - 21
Sat 12/7	Iowa State vs Arizona State	-1.5	51.5	L 19 - 45
Sat 12/28	Iowa State vs Miami	+5.0	62.0	W 42 - 41

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf vs ISU's DC Jon Heacock ISU's OC Taylor Mouser vs ARST's DC Rob Harley

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#82 (.17)	42% (73)	25.8	43% (71)	3.12 (65)	148	41% (80)	225	3.21 (114)	#110 (.25)	42% (72)	32.2	44% (80)	41% (59)	4.05 (92)	60.9	1	1.2
ISU	#57 (.21)	37% (119)	31.1	32% (132)	2.34 (133)	120	41% (72)	245	3.72 (83)	#32 (.13)	39% (36)	22.9	41% (46)	39% (35)	3.35 (27)	43.5	0.8	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ISU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	25.8	20.7	41.6%	3.21	1	20	374	148	225	4.2	50%	49%	43%	41%	16%	.17
ISU Defense	13	22.9	18.1	39.2%	3.35	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	41%	39%	16%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	32.2	37.3	42.3%	4.05	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	44%	41%	15%	.25
ISU Offense	13	31.1	34.1	36.8%	3.72	0.8	16	365	120	245	4.1	48%	52%	32%	41%	14%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	26:17	19.8	36%	35%	6.2	60.9	1	1.2	6.2	1.8	4	30.4
Iowa State	13	29:09	16.3	39%	63%	4.8	43.5	0.8	1.5	4.8	1.6	1	30.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	50% (72)	43% (71)	35.3	148.2	4.2	20 (61)	.16 (66)	3.12 (65)	69% (104)	9% (58)	1.05 (43)
ISU Defense	13	48% (43)	41% (46)	-	-	-	-	.05 (20)	2.77 (20)	68% (38)	8% (123)	0.9 (28)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	50% (65)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.17 (88)	3.09 (66)	85% (124)	10% (71)	1.01 (78)
ISU Offense	13	48% (87)	32% (132)	29.4	119.9	4.1	16 (89)	.01 (126)	2.34 (133)	59% (130)	9% (44)	1.18 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	49% (65)	41% (80)	16	28.5	225.5	7.9	14.1	17 (85)	9 (40)	.24 (83)	1.7 (40)	31% (59)	31% (68)	.28 (88)	6% (87)	2.1 (53)
ISU Defense	13	50% (84)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.28 (74)	1.7 (116)	34% (41)	28% (35)	.23 (24)	8% (9)	2 (60)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	49% (73)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.34 (105)	1.6 (59)	31% (83)	24% (11)	.3 (66)	5% (111)	2.2 (116)
ISU Offense	13	52% (44)	41% (72)	18.5	29.3	245	8.4	13.2	23 (51)	8 (30)	.42 (25)	1.8 (11)	37% (132)	30% (76)	.26 (91)	5% (44)	2 (100)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 646.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Arkansas State's SP+ Ratings
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.76 Iowa State: 14.07

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.9 Iowa State: 10.3

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 14.07 #23
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 22.95 #42
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 6.20 #37
2024 Talent Rating: 676.00 #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Iowa State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0

Iowa State's SP+ Ratings
Iowa State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #28
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #44
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa State 32
Arkansas State 24

Projected Total Points: 56

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.1

Iowa State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Iowa State	52	Arkansas State	7	Iowa State	Iowa State -20.5	Iowa State	52.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Iowa State	1	1	1 Overs
Arkansas State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#91) Arkansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Talent Rating: 646.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Arkansas State Notes
(11/18) Close W @ GaSt, QB Rynor sucks, Rgame great
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals

Arkansas State Ratings Matchup Iowa State

Power #91

#23

Off #62

#42

Def #124

#37

Talent #65

#61

SP+ #104

#28

SP+ Off #87

#44

SP+ Def #119

#24

Rematch from Week 4
Iowa State -20.5 (52.0)
Iowa State won vs Arkansas State this year (52-7)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Arkansas State last year (52-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 89° - Wind: 13 mph

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | ISU
Depth Chart: ARST | ISU
Rosters: ARST | ISU

(#23) Iowa State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 14.07 #23
Offense Rating: 22.95 #42
Defense Rating: 6.20 #37
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #28
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #44
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #24
Talent Rating: 676.00 #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0

Iowa State Notes
(11/30) Even w/ KSU, forced 2 TOs, Becht 13/35 for 137?
(11/23) OG'd Utah 405-224. Beat K St = B12 title game
(11/18) Bounce back vs Cincy, Off better, Pass D great
(11/13) Run Def mauled by KU, Rgame abysmal, all Becht
(11/2) Bad L vs T.T., Outgained TT, but TOs, 3rd down bad
(10/22) Def stop rate is 77%, #6 in CFB but bad Offs so far
(10/13) Even w/ WVU, clean game, 9-14 3rd down in W
(10/11) LB's are really beat up going into WVU game

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Timmy McClain	14	21	67%	163	3	0	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Devin Spencer	40	206	0	5.2	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Courtney Jackson	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46

Iowa State's OC Taylor Mouser

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocco Becht	272	457	60%	3505	25	9	7.7
Connor Moberly	5	10	50%	49	0	1	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carson Hansen	151	752	13	5.0	57
Abu Sama III	124	587	2	4.7	77
Jaylon Jackson	93	388	2	4.2	51
Rocco Becht	98	318	8	3.2	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylin Noel	81	1194	8	14.7	75
Jayden Higgins	87	1183	9	13.6	39
Gabe Burkle	26	296	1	11.4	32
Benjamin Brahmer	10	179	1	17.9	39

Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marvin Ham II	98	10	2	1	1
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15
Jayden Jones	25	7	4	4
Ian Jeffries	21	5	4	5
Noah Collins	26	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dontay Joyner	50	1	1	7
Websley Etienne	56	2	0	5
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	4

Iowa State's DC Jon Heacock

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Freyler	84	3	0	0	4
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5
Kooper Ebel	69	6	1	1	0
Jeremiah Cooper	48	1	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.R. Singleton	32	5	4	7	1
Kenard Snyder	8	2	2	0	0
Joey Petersen	46	6	2	9	0
Domonique Orange	24	5	1	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Cooper	48	1	0	0	8
Myles Purchase	35	4	0	0	6
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5