Texas State vs Sam Houston Game Matchup

Texas State Bobcats vs Sam Houston Bearkats

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (3:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -11 (55.0) (-410) Open: -7.5
Sam Houston 40 - Texas State: 39

Bobcats (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (34 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SHSU 3rd straight Home Game
TXST coming off BYE
Our Line: Texas State -9.5 (SP+ -12.5)
PPG only: TXST: 29 - SHSU: 24 (53)
TXST Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
TXST Travel: 153 miles

Bearkats (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach K. C. Keeler (88 - 36)
Avg Score : 24 - 21 (21 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/31	Texas State vs Lamar			W 34 - 27
Sat 9/7	Texas State vs UTSA	-2.5	58.5	W 49 - 10
Thu 9/12	Texas State vs Arizona State	-2.5	58.5	L 28 - 31
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Texas State vs Sam Houston	-11.0	55.0	L 39 - 40
Thu 10/3	Texas State at Troy	-14.5	56.0	W 38 - 17
Sat 10/12	Texas State vs Arkansas State	-13.5	66.0	W 41 - 9
Sat 10/19	Texas State at Old Dominion	-10.5	60.0	L 14 - 24
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29	Texas State vs Louisiana	-4.0	60.5	L 17 - 23
Sat 11/9	Texas State at UL Monroe	-9.5	50.0	W 38 - 17
Sat 11/16	Texas State vs Southern Miss	-27.5	56.5	W 58 - 3
Sat 11/23	Texas State vs Georgia State	-23.0	59.5	L 44 - 52
Fri 11/29	Texas State at South Alabama	-2.5	60.5	W 45 - 38
Fri 1/3	Texas State vs North Texas	-15.5	67.5	W 30 - 28

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/31	Sam Houston at Rice	+9.5	49.0	W 34 - 14
Sat 9/7	Sam Houston at UCF	+21.5	53.5	L 14 - 45
Sat 9/14	Sam Houston vs Hawai'i	-3.5	48.5	W 31 - 13
Sat 9/21	Sam Houston vs New Mexico State	-15.5	44.5	W 31 - 11
Sat 9/28	Sam Houston vs Texas State	+11.0	55.0	W 40 - 39
Thu 10/3	Sam Houston at UTEP	-10.0	49.5	W 41 - 21
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/16	Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky	-1.5	55.0	L 14 - 31
Tue 10/22	Sam Houston vs Florida International	-5.0	47.0	W 10 - 7
Tue 10/29	Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech	-10.5	45.5	W 9 - 3
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Sam Houston at Kennesaw State	-21.0	42.5	W 23 - 17
Sat 11/23	Sam Houston at Jacksonville State	+5.5	57.5	L 11 - 21
Fri 11/29	Sam Houston vs Liberty	+2.5	47.5	W 20 - 18
Thu 12/19	Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern	+3.5	48.0	W 31 - 26

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich vs SHSU's DC Skyler Cassity SHSU's OC Brad Cornelsen vs TXST's DC Dexter McCoil

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST	#23 (.29)	47% (20)	36.5	46% (36)	3.19 (53)	188	48% (15)	271	4.55 (19)	#64 (.18)	40% (45)	24.5	39% (37)	42% (77)	3.7 (59)	68	1.8	1.7
SHSU	#115 (.1)	37% (118)	23.8	34% (130)	2.61 (131)	89	40% (84)	222	3.47 (97)	#69 (.18)	41% (58)	20.5	41% (55)	42% (75)	3.77 (64)	42.2	1.3	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TXST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SHSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Offense	13	36.5	33.8	46.7%	4.55	1.8	24	459	188	271	4.6	51%	48%	46%	48%	15%	.29
SHSU Defense	12	20.5	15.2	41.3%	3.77	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	41%	42%	14%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TXST Defense	13	24.5	24	40.4%	3.7	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	39%	42%	19%	.18
SHSU Offense	12	23.8	21	36.9%	3.47	1.3	18	311	89	222	2.9	43%	55%	34%	40%	15%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas State	13	29:04	23.9	44%	66%	7.2	68	1.8	1.7	7.7	2.6	4	29.1
Sam Houston	12	29:41	18.3	36%	59%	5.1	42.2	1.3	1.7	4.3	1.4	2	28

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Offense	13	51% (56)	46% (36)	40.5	187.8	4.6	33 (8)	.24 (21)	3.19 (53)	78% (31)	11% (84)	1.13 (15)
SHSU Defense	12	53% (104)	41% (55)	-	-	-	-	.16 (80)	3.2 (92)	79% (104)	8% (119)	1.02 (82)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TXST Defense	13	50% (69)	39% (37)	-	-	-	-	.12 (56)	2.87 (28)	54% (3)	14% (6)	1.21 (127)
SHSU Offense	12	43% (110)	34% (130)	30.7	89.1	2.9	13 (108)	-.02 (129)	2.61 (131)	83% (7)	9% (56)	0.81 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Offense	13	48% (73)	48% (15)	22.1	33	270.9	8.2	12.3	24 (41)	9 (40)	.36 (36)	1.5 (97)	32% (63)	36% (22)	.47 (24)	4% (8)	2 (80)
SHSU Defense	12	47% (32)	42% (75)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.23 (49)	1.5 (24)	31% (79)	27% (25)	.26 (41)	6% (87)	2.1 (88)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TXST Defense	13	49% (68)	42% (77)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.27 (66)	1.7 (109)	36% (10)	36% (123)	.42 (113)	5% (117)	2 (47)
SHSU Offense	12	55% (25)	40% (84)	23.5	37.3	222.3	6	9.5	15 (96)	12 (85)	.24 (81)	1.4 (127)	34% (105)	24% (124)	.17 (112)	6% (55)	1.9 (119)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 2.50 #52
Texas State's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Texas State's Defense Rating: 5.36 #29
2024 Talent Rating: 456.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Texas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82

Texas State's SP+ Ratings
Texas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 2.50 Sam Houston: -6.82

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 5.4 Sam Houston: -6.9

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -6.82 #88
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 14.75 #110
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 7.81 #54
2024 Talent Rating: 330.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Sam Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Sam Houston's SP+ Ratings
Sam Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #98
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0 #117
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #46

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 378
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.8
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Texas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Texas State 29
Sam Houston 24

Projected Total Points: 53

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 23.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Sam Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Sam Houston	40	Texas State	39	Sam Houston	Texas State -11	Sam Houston	55.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Sam Houston	1	1	1 Overs
Texas State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#52) Texas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.50 #52
Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Defense Rating: 5.36 #29
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82
Talent Rating: 456.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Texas State Notes
(11/29) How the fuck did this offense fail so much in 24?
(11/29) Off torched S Al, 530 yds, Def forced 3 TOs
(11/25) Awful L vs Ga St, Def torched 500+, Off 4 TOs
(11/18) 2 str W's, killed SoMiss, McCloud/Rgame great
(11/3) 2 awful L's, season slipping, McCloud replaced?
(10/20) Off/McCloud awful in bad L (ODU), 2 TOs, woof
(10/12) Off 600 yds (271 rush) killing Ark St. Def OK
(10/4) Great Pass Off, run enough. TO's an issue, fun team

Texas State Ratings Matchup Sam Houston

Power #52

#88

Off #38

#110

Def #29

#54

Talent #110

#125

SP+ #48

#98

SP+ Off #20

#117

SP+ Def #82

#46

Rematch from Week 5
Texas State 11.0 (55.0)
Sam Houston won vs Texas State this year (40-39)

Previous Matchups
Sam Houston beat Texas State last year (40-39)

Weather Forecast
Playing in NRG Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 89° - Wind: 7 mph

Team Information
Injuries: TXST | SHSU
Depth Chart: TXST | SHSU
Rosters: TXST | SHSU

(#88) Sam Houston Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -6.82 #88
Offense Rating: 14.75 #110
Defense Rating: 7.81 #54
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0 #117
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #46
Talent Rating: 330.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Sam Houston Notes
(12/1) HC Keeler left for Temple? From PA but why?
(11/25) Off is awful, 11 pts vs Jax St. Def good but ugh
(11/18) Awful perf. @ Kenn St, nearly lost. Took OT, Off bad
(10/23) Off does not function w/ Bauer. Must have Watson
(10/16) Backup QB Bauer meh. Killed by WKU w/o Watson
(10/3) Rgame good, Pass better TW. QB Watson a weapon
(9/29) Rgame awesome in huge W (Tex St). QB can scoot
(9/1) Huge W @ Rice, lines dominated, QB OK, D great

Texas State's OC Mack Leftwich

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jordan McCloud	272	389	70%	3222	30	13	8.3
RJ Martinez	18	24	75%	148	0	1	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi	183	991	4	5.4	45
Lincoln Pare	94	547	8	5.8	73
Torrance Burgess Jr.	60	367	2	6.1	57
Jordan McCloud	74	278	7	3.8	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Williams	57	807	7	14.2	70
Joey Hobert	70	680	8	9.7	40
Kole Wilson	43	630	4	14.7	53
Chris Dawn Jr.	37	418	6	11.3	60

Sam Houston's OC Brad Cornelsen

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hunter Watson	152	253	60%	1598	11	8	6.3
Jase Bauer	40	65	62%	310	2	1	4.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jevyon Ducker	148	719	7	4.9	86
Hunter Watson	152	623	7	4.1	46
DJ McKinney	95	479	3	5.0	59
Jase Bauer	45	195	0	4.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Simeon Evans	43	474	5	11.0	64
Qua'Vez Humphreys	18	362	4	20.1	67
Noah Smith	35	285	0	8.1	22
Ife Adeyi	26	238	1	9.2	32

Texas State's DC Dexter McCoil

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Polk	68	6	2	5	2
Ryan Nolan	52	1	0	0	1
James Neal	50	2	0	1	1
Max Harris	44	3	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kalil Alexander	40	11	6	5	2
Steven Parker	29	9	5	1	1
Jo'Laison Landry	33	8	5	4	0
Brice Bass	43	7	3	7	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Mills	33	3	1	0	7
Joshua Eaton	24	2	1	1	5
Bobby Crosby	18	1	0	0	5

Sam Houston's DC Skyler Cassity

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Weaver	86	3	0	1	6
Kavian Gaither	84	8	0	5	2
Trey Fields	72	6	1	2	1
Antavious Fish	67	2	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Murray	34	12	6	2	0
Briceon Hayes	26	7	5	3	2
Isaiah Nixon	19	6	4	5	0
Richard Outland	15	5	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Cash	58	2	1	0	9
Caleb Weaver	86	3	0	1	6
David Fisher	33	2	0	0	6