Fresno State at Air Force Game Matchup

Fresno State Bulldogs at Air Force Falcons

Saturday, November 9th 2024 (9:45 PM EST)
Fresno State -9.5 (40.5) (-430) Open: -10.5 | 41.0
Air Force 36 - Fresno State: 28 (Mountain West)

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Tim Skipper (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (21 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 27.3°
Our Line: Fresno State -14.5 (SP+ -8)
PPG only: FRES: 25 - AFA: 22 (47)
FRES Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
FRES Travel: 826 miles, 1 hrs behind

Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/31	Fresno State at Michigan	+21.0	48.0	L 10 - 30
Sat 9/7	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-18.5	55.5	W 46 - 30
Sat 9/14	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	-19.5	48.5	W 48 - 0
Sat 9/21	Fresno State at New Mexico	-12.0	61.0	W 38 - 21
Sat 9/28	Fresno State at UNLV	+2.5	51.0	L 14 - 59
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Fresno State vs Washington State	+3.5	60.5	L 17 - 25
Fri 10/18	Fresno State at Nevada	-3.0	50.0	W 24 - 21
Sat 10/26	Fresno State vs San José State	-6.5	55.0	W 33 - 10
Sat 11/2	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	-12.0	45.5	L 20 - 21
Sat 11/9	Fresno State at Air Force	-9.5	40.5	L 28 - 36
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Fresno State vs Colorado State	-3.5	43.5	W 28 - 22
Sat 11/30	Fresno State at UCLA	+7.5	46.5	L 13 - 20
Mon 12/23	Fresno State vs Northern Illinois	+2.0	41.0	L 20 - 28

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Air Force's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/31	Air Force vs Merrimack	-30.5	47.5	W 21 - 6
Sat 9/7	Air Force vs San José State	-1.5	43.5	L 7 - 17
Sat 9/14	Air Force at Baylor	+17.5	40.5	L 3 - 31
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Air Force at Wyoming	-4.0	33.5	L 19 - 31
Sat 10/5	Air Force vs Navy	+10.0	37.0	L 7 - 34
Sat 10/12	Air Force at New Mexico	+7.0	56.0	L 37 - 52
Sat 10/19	Air Force vs Colorado State	+6.0	43.5	L 13 - 21
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Air Force at Army	+18.0	38.5	L 3 - 20
Sat 11/9	Air Force vs Fresno State	+9.5	40.5	W 36 - 28
Sat 11/16	Air Force vs Oregon State	+3.0	44.5	W 28 - 0
Sat 11/23	Air Force at Nevada	+3.0	44.5	W 22 - 19
Sat 11/30	Air Force at San Diego State	-6.5	43.5	W 31 - 20

FRES's OC Pat McCann vs AFA's DC Brian Knorr AFA's OC Mike Thiessen vs FRES's DC Kevin Coyle

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#51 (.22)	44% (48)	26.1	40% (103)	2.97 (95)	106	47% (24)	281	4.21 (36)	#66 (.18)	41% (60)	24.8	42% (62)	41% (64)	3.31 (20)	39.8	1.1	1.8
AFA	#26 (.28)	45% (31)	18.9	46% (34)	3.48 (8)	281	41% (74)	85	4.05 (52)	#28 (.12)	39% (38)	23.3	37% (16)	42% (79)	3.96 (85)	24.8	1.3	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	13	26.1	21.2	43.8%	4.21	1.1	21	388	106	281	3.8	37%	62%	40%	47%	15%	.22
AFA Defense	13	23.3	17.7	39.3%	3.96	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	37%	42%	14%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	13	24.8	31.2	41.5%	3.31	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	42%	41%	16%	.18
AFA Offense	13	18.9	18.7	45.5%	4.05	1.3	20	366	281	85	5.1	85%	14%	46%	41%	9%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	13	29:21	20.9	48%	64%	4.4	39.8	1.1	1.8	5.5	2.2	1	31.4
Air Force	13	33:26	19.6	46%	68%	3	24.8	1.3	1.1	4.5	2	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	13	37% (129)	40% (103)	28.4	106.5	3.8	16 (89)	.14 (77)	2.97 (95)	74% (70)	8% (28)	1.01 (62)
AFA Defense	13	49% (58)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	.06 (26)	2.67 (13)	79% (106)	9% (93)	0.99 (61)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	13	53% (105)	42% (62)	-	-	-	-	.13 (61)	3.16 (84)	68% (42)	9% (95)	0.91 (30)
AFA Offense	13	85% (1)	46% (34)	54.7	280.6	5.1	36 (4)	.27 (14)	3.48 (8)	80% (19)	8% (22)	1.02 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	13	62% (5)	47% (24)	25.8	39.6	281.3	7.1	10.9	29 (18)	12 (85)	.3 (65)	1.5 (118)	31% (49)	38% (10)	.43 (37)	7% (93)	1.8 (125)
AFA Defense	13	50% (80)	42% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.21 (36)	1.5 (19)	34% (44)	29% (45)	.34 (85)	5% (103)	2 (59)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	13	46% (28)	41% (64)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.3 (90)	1.7 (93)	32% (60)	33% (106)	.34 (84)	7% (44)	2 (44)
AFA Offense	13	14% (133)	41% (74)	4.2	8.1	85	10.5	20.1	7 (129)	6 (14)	.51 (9)	2.3 (1)	23% (1)	27% (93)	.39 (48)	2% (1)	2.3 (7)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -6.40 #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 540.00 #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Fresno State's SP+ Ratings
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -6.40 Air Force: -20.84

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -3.8 Air Force: -11.7

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -20.84 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 198.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Air Force's SP+ Ratings
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.2
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 25
Air Force 22

Projected Total Points: 47

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/09	Air Force	36	Fresno State	28	Air Force	Fresno State -9.5	Air Force	40.5	Over
2019	10/12	Air Force	43	Fresno State	24	Air Force	Air Force -2.5	Air Force	50.5	Over
2016	10/28	Fresno State	21	Air Force	31	Air Force	Air Force -13.5	Fresno State	51.0	Over
2015	10/24	Air Force	42	Fresno State	14	Air Force	Air Force -17	Air Force	54.0	Over
2012	11/24	Fresno State	48	Air Force	15	Fresno State
2000	12/30	Air Force	37	Fresno State	34	Air Force

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	5	3	4 Overs
Fresno State	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 1	4 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 5	0 - 4	0 - 2	0 - 2

(#87) Fresno State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -6.40 #87
Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77
Talent Rating: 540.00 #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Fresno State Notes
(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good

Fresno State Ratings Matchup Air Force

Power #87

#125

Off #95

#112

Def #33

#117

Talent #88

#131

SP+ #85

#111

SP+ Off #85

#120

SP+ Def #77

#76

Rematch from Week 11
Fresno State 9.5 (40.5)
Air Force won vs Fresno State this year (36-28)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Fresno State last year (36-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 27° - Wind: 6 mph

Team Information
Injuries: FRES | AFA
Depth Chart: FRES | AFA
Rosters: FRES | AFA

(#125) Air Force Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -20.84 #125
Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Talent Rating: 198.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Air Force Notes
(11/18) Rgame mauled Oreg St. Hayes good, Def great
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY

Fresno State's OC Pat McCann

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene	276	392	70%	2887	18	11	7.4
Joshua Wood	18	28	64%	195	1	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Donelson	78	472	3	6.1	43
Elijah Gilliam	121	466	8	3.9	24
Malik Sherrod	60	196	4	3.3	48
Joshua Wood	37	118	6	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mac Dalena	60	998	8	16.6	75
Jalen Moss	49	582	4	11.9	49
Raylen Sharpe	51	523	3	10.3	38
Elijah Gilliam	32	204	0	6.4	71

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Busha	29	79	37%	415	1	5	5.3
Quentin Hayes	25	43	58%	455	3	2	10.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Carson	138	600	5	4.3	50
Quentin Hayes	126	466	7	3.7	30
Owen Allen	77	335	2	4.4	14
Cade Harris	48	279	4	5.8	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	23	368	2	16.0	76
Quin Smith	10	207	1	20.7	39
Jared Roznos	5	109	0	21.8	52
Bruin Fleischmann	5	104	0	20.8	43

Fresno State's DC Kevin Coyle

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tuasivi Nomura	102	7	0	0	3
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Langley	73	3	3	7	0
Dean Clark	56	3	2	2	4
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4
Korey Foreman	23	5	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Cameron Lockridge	37	2	0	0	6
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4

Air Force's DC Brian Knorr

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Camby Goff	67	3	0	1	3
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	0	4
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Santiago	37	5	4	2	3
Peyton Zdroik	18	7	3	3	0
Osaro Aihie	58	2	2	0	1
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jamari Bellamy	64	3	0	4
Trey Williams	31	1	0	4
Camby Goff	67	3	1	3