Tulsa at Arkansas State Game Matchup

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -9.5 (65.5) (-300) Open: -7.0 | 65.5
Arkansas State 28 - Tulsa: 24

Jonesboro Weather
Current: Clouds
Temp: 66°
Wind: 17 mph
Gusts: 26 mph

Golden Hurricane (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Ryan Switzer (Int) (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 25 - 43 (21 - 40 on Road)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -2 (SP+ -11)
PPG only: TLSA: 29 - ARST: 34 (63)
ARST Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
TLSA Travel: 296 miles

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (29 - 27 @ Home)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Tulsa's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Thu 8/29	Tulsa vs Northwestern State	-37.5	55.5	W 62 - 28
Sat 9/7	Tulsa at Arkansas State	+9.5	65.5	L 24 - 28
Sat 9/14	Tulsa vs Oklahoma State	+17.5	62.5	L 10 - 45
Sat 9/21	Tulsa at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	56.5	W 23 - 20
Sat 9/28	Tulsa at North Texas	+7.0	65.5	L 20 - 52
Sat 10/5	Tulsa vs Army	+13.5	50.5	L 7 - 49
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Tulsa at Temple	+3.5	51.5	L 10 - 20
Sat 10/26	Tulsa vs UTSA	+9.5	52.5	W 46 - 45
Sat 11/2	Tulsa at UAB	+2.5	57.5	L 21 - 59
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/14	Tulsa vs East Carolina	+16.0	63.5	L 31 - 38
Sat 11/23	Tulsa at South Florida	+17.5	60.0	L 30 - 63
Sat 11/30	Tulsa vs Florida Atlantic	+2.5	57.5	L 16 - 63

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas			W 34 - 31
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State vs Tulsa	-9.5	65.5	W 28 - 24
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Michigan	+22.0	47.5	L 18 - 28
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State at Iowa State	+20.5	52.0	L 7 - 52
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+2.5	62.5	W 18 - 16
Sat 10/12	Arkansas State at Texas State	+13.5	66.0	L 9 - 41
Sat 10/19	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	-7.0	57.0	W 44 - 28
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	-8.5	50.0	W 34 - 31
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+14.0	60.0	L 19 - 55
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+2.5	60.0	W 27 - 20
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	51.5	W 28 - 21
Sat 11/30	Arkansas State vs Old Dominion	+5.5	58.5	L 32 - 40
Thu 12/26	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31

TLSA's OC Steve Spurrier Jr. vs ARST's DC Rob Harley ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf vs TLSA's DC Chris Polizzi

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TLSA	#77 (.18)	41% (83)	25	40% (99)	3.16 (59)	181	44% (50)	205	4.23 (34)	#120 (.29)	44% (96)	42.5	43% (67)	46% (121)	3.95 (82)	43.3	2	1.7
ARST	#82 (.17)	42% (73)	25.8	43% (71)	3.12 (65)	148	41% (80)	225	3.21 (114)	#110 (.25)	42% (72)	32.2	44% (80)	41% (59)	4.05 (92)	60.9	1	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TLSA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TLSA Offense	12	25	21.3	41%	4.23	2	20	386	181	205	4.1	57%	41%	40%	44%	17%	.18
ARST Defense	13	32.2	27.2	42.3%	4.05	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	44%	41%	15%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TLSA Defense	12	42.5	40.3	43.9%	3.95	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	43%	46%	14%	.29
ARST Offense	13	25.8	29	41.6%	3.21	1	20	374	148	225	4.2	50%	49%	43%	41%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Tulsa	12	29:42	19.8	45%	44%	5.1	43.3	2	1.7	5.4	1.8	0	28.1
Arkansas State	13	26:17	19.8	36%	35%	6.2	60.9	1	1.2	6.2	1.8	4	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TLSA Offense	12	57% (16)	40% (99)	43.9	180.9	4.1	13 (108)	.1 (96)	3.16 (59)	79% (27)	11% (87)	0.88 (120)
ARST Defense	13	50% (65)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.17 (88)	3.09 (66)	85% (124)	10% (71)	1.01 (78)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TLSA Defense	12	47% (37)	43% (67)	-	-	-	-	.21 (107)	3.18 (89)	67% (30)	10% (74)	1.13 (115)
ARST Offense	13	50% (72)	43% (71)	35.3	148.2	4.2	20 (61)	.16 (66)	3.12 (65)	69% (104)	9% (58)	1.05 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TLSA Offense	12	41% (118)	44% (50)	15.8	27.8	204.7	7.4	12.9	20 (70)	19 (131)	.36 (37)	1.8 (13)	34% (95)	32% (57)	.33 (68)	6% (73)	2.1 (66)
ARST Defense	13	49% (73)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.34 (105)	1.6 (59)	31% (83)	24% (11)	.3 (66)	5% (111)	2.2 (116)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TLSA Defense	12	51% (89)	46% (121)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.43 (124)	1.7 (100)	30% (103)	29% (43)	.41 (111)	5% (113)	2.6 (133)
ARST Offense	13	49% (65)	41% (80)	16	28.5	225.5	7.9	14.1	17 (85)	9 (40)	.24 (83)	1.7 (40)	31% (59)	31% (68)	.28 (88)	6% (87)	2.1 (53)

Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: #NR
Tulsa's Offense Rating: #NR
Tulsa's Defense Rating: #NR
2024 Talent Rating: 510.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Tulsa's 2024 Expected Record: -
Tulsa's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -20.6 #128
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #105
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Tulsa's SP+ Ratings
Tulsa's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -20.6 #128
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #105
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482.57
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: Arkansas State: 2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -20.6 Arkansas State: -9.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: 2 #NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: #NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: #NR
2024 Talent Rating: 646.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #NR
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: -

Arkansas State's SP+ Ratings
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 25 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.3
Defense: 42.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.3

Tulsa's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 34
Tulsa 29

Projected Total Points: 63

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Arkansas State	28	Tulsa	24	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -9.5	Tulsa	65.5	Under
2021	09/25	Tulsa	41	Arkansas State	34	Tulsa	Tulsa -14.5	Arkansas State	65.0	Over
2018	09/15	Tulsa	20	Arkansas State	29	Arkansas State	Tulsa -2	Arkansas State	71.0	Under
2003	09/20	Tulsa	54	Arkansas State	7	Tulsa
2002	09/07	Arkansas State	21	Tulsa	19	Arkansas State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	3	2	1 Overs
Tulsa	2	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 1	0 - 3	0 - 3	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 4	3 - 0	0 - 0	3 - 0

(#NR) Tulsa Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: -20.6 #128
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #105
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129
Talent Rating: 510.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -

Tulsa Notes
(12/8) Hired HC Tre Lamb (ETSU/Gar Web)
(11/24) HC Wilson fired, WR coach Ryan Switzer in
(11/4) Wilson is 3-10 in AAC play, 7-14 overall
(11/3) Killed by UAB? Def torched 400+ pass? Run awful
(10/28) Down 35-7, season saving comeback vs UTSA
(10/20) L to Temple after Bye? QB meh, Rgame abysmal
(10/20) Pass D torched by Temple for 300+, QBs awful
(10/20) Not sure what plan is or level of give a shit

Tulsa Ratings Matchup Arkansas State

Power #NR

#NR

Off #NR

#NR

Def #NR

#NR

Talent #94

#65

SP+ #128

#104

SP+ Off #105

#87

SP+ Def #129

#119

Rematch from Week 2
Arkansas State -9.5 (65.5)
Arkansas State won vs Tulsa this year (28-24)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Tulsa last year (28-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 74° - Wind: 10 mph

Team Information
Injuries: TLSA | ARST
Depth Chart: TLSA | ARST
Rosters: TLSA | ARST

(#NR) Arkansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2 #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Talent Rating: 646.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #NR
Expected Record: -

Arkansas State Notes
(11/18) Close W @ GaSt, QB Rynor sucks, Rgame great
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals

Tulsa's OC Steve Spurrier Jr.

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kirk Francis	149	253	59%	1585	9	6	6.3
Cooper Legas	87	162	54%	1144	12	6	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Watkins	87	402	4	4.6	77
Viron Ellison Jr.	62	353	1	5.7	32
Bill Jackson	67	319	0	4.8	37
Lloyd Avant	76	259	1	3.4	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kamdyn Benjamin	70	822	6	11.7	74
Joseph Williams	30	588	5	19.6	72
Luke Mcgary	17	231	1	13.6	32
Zion Steptoe	15	203	0	13.5	34

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Timmy McClain	14	21	67%	163	3	0	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Devin Spencer	40	206	0	5.2	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Courtney Jackson	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46

Tulsa's DC Chris Polizzi

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gavin Potter	75	11	1	4	0
Dayne Hodge	60	1	0	0	3
Malachi Jones	49	0	0	0	3
Zach Marcheselli	47	10	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
R.J. Jackson	35	4	3	0	2
Owen Ostroski	35	8	2	4	0
Vontroy Malone	25	5	2	1	0
Myles Jackson	36	6	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Keuan Parker	20	0	4
Buddha Garrett	38	1	3
Dayne Hodge	60	1	3

Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marvin Ham II	98	10	2	1	1
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15
Jayden Jones	25	7	4	4
Ian Jeffries	21	5	4	5
Noah Collins	26	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dontay Joyner	50	1	1	7
Websley Etienne	56	2	0	5
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	4