Texas State at Troy Game Matchup
Texas State logo Texas State Bobcats at Troy TrojansTroy logo
Thursday, October 3rd 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Texas State -14.5 (56.0) (-625)  Open: -13.5
Texas State 38 - Troy: 17  (Sun Belt)

 
Bobcats (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (34 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TXST 2nd straight Road Game
TROY 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Texas State -15    (SP+ -12)
PPG only: TXST: 33 - TROY: 25 (58)
TXST Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
TXST Travel: 722 miles
Trojans (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (29 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Texas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/31 Texas State vs Lamar W 34 - 27
Sat 9/7 Texas State vs UTSA-2.558.5W 49 - 10
Thu 9/12 Texas State vs Arizona State-2.558.5L 28 - 31
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Texas State vs Sam Houston-11.055.0L 39 - 40
Thu 10/3 Texas State at Troy-14.556.0W 38 - 17
Sat 10/12 Texas State vs Arkansas State-13.566.0W 41 - 9
Sat 10/19 Texas State at Old Dominion-10.560.0L 14 - 24
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29 Texas State vs Louisiana-4.060.5L 17 - 23
Sat 11/9 Texas State at UL Monroe-9.550.0W 38 - 17
Sat 11/16 Texas State vs Southern Miss-27.556.5W 58 - 3
Sat 11/23 Texas State vs Georgia State-23.059.5L 44 - 52
Fri 11/29 Texas State at South Alabama-2.560.5W 45 - 38
Fri 1/3 Texas State vs North Texas-15.567.5W 30 - 28
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Troy's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/31 Troy vs Nevada-7.544.5L 26 - 28
Sat 9/7 Troy at Memphis+18.557.5L 17 - 38
Sat 9/14 Troy at Iowa+23.539.5L 21 - 38
Sat 9/21 Troy vs Florida A&M-21.548.5W 34 - 12
Sat 9/28 Troy vs UL Monroe-6.046.0L 9 - 13
Thu 10/3 Troy vs Texas State+14.556.0L 17 - 38
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15 Troy at South Alabama+10.053.0L 9 - 25
Sat 10/26 Troy at Arkansas State+8.550.0L 31 - 34
Sat 11/2 Troy vs Coastal Carolina+4.052.0W 38 - 24
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Troy at Georgia Southern+7.054.0W 28 - 20
Sat 11/23 Troy at Louisiana+7.551.5L 30 - 51
Sat 11/30 Troy vs Southern Miss-17.548.5W 52 - 20
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

TXST's OC Mack Leftwich vs TROY's DC Dontae Wright     TROY's OC Sean Reagan vs TXST's DC Dexter McCoil

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#23 (.29)47% (20)36.546% (36)3.19 (53)18848% (15)2714.55 (19)#64 (.18)40% (45)24.539% (37)42% (77)3.7 (59)681.81.7
TROY#56 (.21)41% (78)2642% (79)3.12 (66)15441% (79)2653.78 (78)#4 (.03)38% (27)28.437% (22)40% (43)2.96 (10)46.41.31.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TROY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense1336.533.846.7%4.551.8244591882714.651%48%46%48%15%.29
TROY Defense1428.422.538.1%2.961.6 - - - - - 47%52%37%40%18%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense1324.52440.4%3.71.7 - - - - - 50%49%39%42%19%.18
TROY Offense142629.341.4%3.781.3214191542654.448%51%42%41%15%.21

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State1329:0423.944%66%7.2681.81.77.72.6429.1
Troy1430:5921.141%45%5.146.41.31.66.93.1130.9
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense1351% (56)46% (36)40.5187.84.633 (8).24 (21)3.19 (53)78% (31)11% (84)1.13 (15)
TROY Defense1447% (29)37% (22) - - - - -.03 (10)2.75 (18)60% (9)13% (9)0.97 (48)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense1350% (69)39% (37) - - - - .12 (56)2.87 (28)54% (3)14% (6)1.21 (127)
TROY Offense1448% (85)42% (79)34.6153.94.419 (69).15 (75)3.12 (66)72% (88)10% (62)1.03 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense1348% (73)48% (15)22.133270.98.212.324 (41)9 (40).36 (36)1.5 (97)32% (63)36% (22).47 (24)4% (8)2 (80)
TROY Defense1452% (105)40% (43) - - - - - - 10 (67).12 (11)1.4 (12)34% (36)28% (41).2 (16)5% (105)1.9 (28)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense1349% (68)42% (77) - - - - - - 11 (53).27 (66)1.7 (109)36% (10)36% (123).42 (113)5% (117)2 (47)
TROY Offense1451% (45)41% (79)19.932.6265.18.113.329 (18)6 (14).29 (66)1.7 (41)33% (85)29% (80).3 (78)6% (60)2.2 (31)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 2.50 #52
Texas State's Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Texas State's Defense Rating: 5.36 #29
2024 Talent Rating: 456.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Texas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82

Texas State's SP+ Ratings
Texas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 2.50   Troy: -12.63

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 5.4   Troy: -6.6




Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -12.63 #112
Troy's Offense Rating: 20.68 #58
Troy's Defense Rating: 15.27 #111
2024 Talent Rating: 422.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Troy's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Troy's SP+ Ratings
Troy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.8
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Texas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 33
Troy 25

Projected Total Points: 58
Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Troy's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/03Troy17Texas State38Texas StateTexas State -14.5Texas State56.0Under
202310/28Texas State13Troy31TroyTroy -6.5Troy53.0Under
202210/15Troy17Texas State14TroyTroy -16.5Texas State47.0Under
202110/16Texas State28Troy31TroyTroy -7.5Texas State49.0Over
202010/10Troy37Texas State17TroyTroy -7.0Troy59.0Under
201911/16Texas State27Troy63TroyTroy -7Troy65.0Over
201811/17Troy12Texas State7TroyTroy -23Texas State47.5Under
201711/24Troy62Texas State9TroyTroy -23.5Troy53.5Over
201611/26Texas State7Troy40TroyTroy -26.5Troy57.5Under
201311/29Troy42Texas State28TroyTroy -4.5Troy0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Troy963 Overs
Texas State146 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 54 - 63 - 21 - 4
Road Teams5 - 56 - 44 - 12 - 3

(#52) Texas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.50 #52
Offense Rating: 23.07 #38
Defense Rating: 5.36 #29
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4 #48
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #20
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #82
Talent Rating: 456.00 #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0


Texas State Notes
(11/29) How the fuck did this offense fail so much in 24?
(11/29) Off torched S Al, 530 yds, Def forced 3 TOs
(11/25) Awful L vs Ga St, Def torched 500+, Off 4 TOs
(11/18) 2 str W's, killed SoMiss, McCloud/Rgame great
(11/3) 2 awful L's, season slipping, McCloud replaced?
(10/20) Off/McCloud awful in bad L (ODU), 2 TOs, woof
(10/12) Off 600 yds (271 rush) killing Ark St. Def OK
(10/4) Great Pass Off, run enough. TO's an issue, fun team
Texas State     Ratings Matchup     Troy
Power #52
#112
Off #38
#58
Def #29
#111
Talent #110
#113
SP+ #48
#96
SP+ Off #20
#93
SP+ Def #82
#90

Rematch from Week 6
Texas State 14.5 (56.0)
Texas State won at Troy this year (38-17)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Troy last year (38-17)
Troy beat Texas State in 2023 (31-13)
Troy beat Texas State in 2022 (17-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 76°

Team Information
Injuries: TXST | TROY
Depth Chart: TXST | TROY
Rosters: TXST | TROY
(#112) Troy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -12.63 #112
Offense Rating: 20.68 #58
Defense Rating: 15.27 #111
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90
Talent Rating: 422.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0


Troy Notes
(11/18) 2 str W's, upset GaSo. QB Caldwell great TW
(11/3) Blasted C. Car, Rgame 344 yds, 6.4 ypc in upset
(10/27) Still fighting, close L (Ark St), Off 450+, Def bad
(10/22) QB Crowder out for season, 2 QB split for now
(10/16) Run game is awful, Run defense is almost as bad
(10/4) Runs 56% but horrible success. QB decent, D bad
(9/8) Serious Rgame issues, bad 0-2 start. Lotta flags
(9/8) QB Crower JAG, D all. 214 Ryds @ home (Nev L)




  
Texas State's OC Mack Leftwich
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jordan McCloud27238970%322230138.3
RJ Martinez182475%148016.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ismail Mahdi18399145.445
Lincoln Pare9454785.873
Torrance Burgess Jr.6036726.157
Jordan McCloud7427873.842
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Williams57807714.270
Joey Hobert7068089.740
Kole Wilson43630414.753
Chris Dawn Jr.37418611.360
Troy's OC Sean Reagan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Matthew Caldwell14122463%16081387.2
Will Crowder446370%547508.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Taylor173101075.856
Gerald Green11154534.951
Tucker Kilcrease3911803.025
Will Crowder176313.712
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devonte Ross7610441113.798
Landon Parker27350013.033
Peyton Higgins3130119.737
Zeriah Beason16208013.035

Texas State's DC Dexter McCoil
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Polk686252
Ryan Nolan521001
James Neal502011
Max Harris443120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4011652
Steven Parker299511
Jo'Laison Landry338540
Brice Bass437371
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Mills333107
Joshua Eaton242115
Bobby Crosby181005
Troy's DC Dontae Wright
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Stringer778210
Brendan Jackson7716223
Justin Powe672104
Ian Conerly-Goodly542014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Phillip Lee3011571
Julian Peterson255310
Jordan Stringer778210
Brendan Jackson7716223
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damaje Yancey494208
LJ Green272016
Justin Powe672104