South Alabama at Arkansas State Game Matchup

South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
South Alabama -2.5 (62.5) (-142) Open: -4.5
Arkansas State 18 - South Alabama: 16 (Sun Belt)

Jaguars (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (26 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USA 3rd straight Road Game
ARST coming off BYE
Our Line: South Alabama -2 (SP+ -12.5)
PPG only: USA: 33 - ARST: 26 (59)
USA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
USA Travel: 387 miles

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Alabama's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/31	South Alabama vs North Texas	-6.0	61.5	L 38 - 52
Sat 9/7	South Alabama at Ohio	-1.5	55.5	L 20 - 27
Thu 9/12	South Alabama vs Northwestern State	-36.5	60.5	W 87 - 10
Thu 9/19	South Alabama at App State	+8.0	62.5	W 48 - 14
Sat 9/28	South Alabama at LSU	+21.0	64.5	L 10 - 42
Sat 10/5	South Alabama at Arkansas State	-2.5	62.5	L 16 - 18
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15	South Alabama vs Troy	-10.0	53.0	W 25 - 9
Sat 10/26	South Alabama vs UL Monroe	-7.0	45.0	W 46 - 17
Sat 11/2	South Alabama vs Georgia Southern	-5.5	60.0	L 30 - 34
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	South Alabama at Louisiana	+6.5	60.0	W 24 - 22
Sat 11/23	South Alabama at Southern Miss	-24.0	54.0	W 35 - 14
Fri 11/29	South Alabama vs Texas State	+2.5	60.5	L 38 - 45
Sat 12/14	South Alabama vs Western Michigan	-6.0	53.5	W 30 - 23

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas			W 34 - 31
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State vs Tulsa	-9.5	65.5	W 28 - 24
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Michigan	+22.0	47.5	L 18 - 28
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State at Iowa State	+20.5	52.0	L 7 - 52
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+2.5	62.5	W 18 - 16
Sat 10/12	Arkansas State at Texas State	+13.5	66.0	L 9 - 41
Sat 10/19	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	-7.0	57.0	W 44 - 28
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	-8.5	50.0	W 34 - 31
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+14.0	60.0	L 19 - 55
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+2.5	60.0	W 27 - 20
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	51.5	W 28 - 21
Sat 11/30	Arkansas State vs Old Dominion	+5.5	58.5	L 32 - 40
Thu 12/26	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31

USA's OC Rob Ezell vs ARST's DC Rob Harley ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf vs USA's DC Will Windham

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA	#31 (.28)	43% (57)	34.4	42% (80)	3.24 (44)	172	45% (35)	268	4.67 (15)	#34 (.14)	37% (17)	25.2	35% (8)	40% (44)	3.32 (21)	57.7	1.5	1.7
ARST	#82 (.17)	42% (73)	25.8	43% (71)	3.12 (65)	148	41% (80)	225	3.21 (114)	#110 (.25)	42% (72)	32.2	44% (80)	41% (59)	4.05 (92)	60.9	1	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Offense	13	34.4	25.5	43%	4.67	1.5	23	440	172	268	4.8	48%	51%	42%	45%	15%	.28
ARST Defense	13	32.2	27.2	42.3%	4.05	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	44%	41%	15%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USA Defense	13	25.2	22.8	36.6%	3.32	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	35%	40%	16%	.14
ARST Offense	13	25.8	29	41.6%	3.21	1	20	374	148	225	4.2	50%	49%	43%	41%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Alabama	13	30:30	22.6	43%	63%	6.7	57.7	1.5	1.7	5.8	2	0	31.4
Arkansas State	13	26:17	19.8	36%	35%	6.2	60.9	1	1.2	6.2	1.8	4	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Offense	13	48% (81)	42% (80)	36	171.9	4.8	28 (25)	.18 (49)	3.24 (44)	74% (71)	10% (76)	1.18 (6)
ARST Defense	13	50% (65)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.17 (88)	3.09 (66)	85% (124)	10% (71)	1.01 (78)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USA Defense	13	54% (116)	35% (8)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (12)	2.69 (14)	74% (74)	11% (33)	0.9 (27)
ARST Offense	13	50% (72)	43% (71)	35.3	148.2	4.2	20 (61)	.16 (66)	3.12 (65)	69% (104)	9% (58)	1.05 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Offense	13	51% (55)	45% (35)	22.4	32.9	268.2	8.1	12	28 (23)	11 (68)	.41 (26)	1.7 (34)	34% (104)	39% (8)	.59 (7)	5% (27)	2.2 (34)
ARST Defense	13	49% (73)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.34 (105)	1.6 (59)	31% (83)	24% (11)	.3 (66)	5% (111)	2.2 (116)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USA Defense	13	45% (19)	40% (44)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.36 (109)	1.8 (124)	36% (12)	27% (29)	.28 (47)	5% (106)	2.2 (104)
ARST Offense	13	49% (65)	41% (80)	16	28.5	225.5	7.9	14.1	17 (85)	9 (40)	.24 (83)	1.7 (40)	31% (59)	31% (68)	.28 (88)	6% (87)	2.1 (53)

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -3.64 #76
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 25.69 #16
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 10.70 #78
2024 Talent Rating: 512.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
South Alabama's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Alabama's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #71

South Alabama's SP+ Ratings
South Alabama's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #71

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: -3.64 Arkansas State: -5.76

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Alabama: 2.8 Arkansas State: -9.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -5.76 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 646.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Arkansas State's SP+ Ratings
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.8

South Alabama's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
South Alabama 33
Arkansas State 26

Projected Total Points: 59

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	Arkansas State	18	South Alabama	16	Arkansas State	South Alabama -2.5	Arkansas State	62.5	Under
2023	11/11	South Alabama	21	Arkansas State	14	South Alabama	South Alabama -14.5	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2022	10/29	Arkansas State	3	South Alabama	31	South Alabama	South Alabama -9	South Alabama	52.5	Under
2021	10/30	South Alabama	31	Arkansas State	13	South Alabama	South Alabama -9.5	South Alabama	67.0	Under
2020	11/28	Arkansas State	31	South Alabama	38	South Alabama	Arkansas State -7	South Alabama	63.5	Over
2019	11/29	South Alabama	34	Arkansas State	30	South Alabama	Arkansas State -10.5	South Alabama	53.0	Over
2018	11/03	Arkansas State	38	South Alabama	14	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -14	Arkansas State	61.5	Under
2017	11/11	South Alabama	24	Arkansas State	19	South Alabama	Arkansas State -12.5	South Alabama	55.5	Under
2016	10/15	Arkansas State	17	South Alabama	7	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2015	10/13	South Alabama	31	Arkansas State	49	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	58.0	Over
2014	11/08	Arkansas State	45	South Alabama	10	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -9.5	Arkansas State	0
2013	11/02	South Alabama	16	Arkansas State	17	Arkansas State	South Alabama -2.5	Arkansas State	0
2012	10/13	Arkansas State	36	South Alabama	29	Arkansas State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	7	7	3 Overs
South Alabama	6	5	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 4	7 - 5	4 - 3	3 - 2
Road Teams	4 - 9	5 - 7	2 - 3	3 - 4

(#76) South Alabama Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -3.64 #76
Offense Rating: 25.69 #16
Defense Rating: 10.70 #78
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #71
Talent Rating: 512.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0

South Alabama Notes
(12/15) Rgame 267/7.2 ypc in bowl W over WMU
(12/15) Great QB depth, backup Davenport can run/throw
(11/29) Def torched, gave up 3 TOs, OG'd by 160 by T St
(11/25) Rgame good, Lopez 3 TD over awful So Miss
(11/18) Huge W @ ULL, QB good, Def barely held on
(11/3) 450+ yds but 2 TOs cost badly in GaSo loss
(10/27) Rgame great (ULM), 358 yds, 7.8 ypc. Run D bad
(10/16) Avg 17 ppg last 3 games, stopped Troy, NBD

South Alabama Ratings Matchup Arkansas State

Power #76

#91

Off #16

#62

Def #78

#124

Talent #93

#65

SP+ #61

#104

SP+ Off #47

#87

SP+ Def #71

#119

Rematch from Week 6
South Alabama 2.5 (62.5)
Arkansas State won vs South Alabama this year (18-16)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat South Alabama last year (18-16)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2023 (21-14)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2022 (31-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 80°

Team Information
Injuries: USA | ARST
Depth Chart: USA | ARST
Rosters: USA | ARST

(#91) Arkansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.76 #91
Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Talent Rating: 646.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Arkansas State Notes
(11/18) Close W @ GaSt, QB Rynor sucks, Rgame great
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals

South Alabama's OC Rob Ezell

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Giovanni Lopez	205	311	66%	2557	18	5	8.2
Bishop Davenport	48	79	61%	604	3	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell	112	834	13	7.4	59
Kentrel Bullock	152	832	7	5.5	59
Giovanni Lopez	82	465	7	5.7	50
Bishop Davenport	37	161	1	4.4	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamaal Pritchett	91	1126	9	12.4	75
Jeremiah Webb	36	649	5	18.0	52
Devin Voisin	34	407	0	12.0	28
Shamar Sandgren	19	208	1	10.9	21

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Timmy McClain	14	21	67%	163	3	0	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Devin Spencer	40	206	0	5.2	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Courtney Jackson	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46

South Alabama's DC Will Windham

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blayne Myrick	101	8	2	3	2
Jaden Voisin	84	4	0	3	5
Darius McKenzie	72	4	1	0	4
Jordan Scruggs	70	5	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Courtney McBride	39	11	5	3	0
Parker Shattuck	11	3	3	0	1
Tyler Thomas	19	4	3	0	0
Jordan Norman	25	4	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Amarion Fortenberry	43	2	0	0	6
Jaden Voisin	84	4	0	3	5
Darius McKenzie	72	4	1	0	4

Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marvin Ham II	98	10	2	1	1
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15
Jayden Jones	25	7	4	4
Ian Jeffries	21	5	4	5
Noah Collins	26	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dontay Joyner	50	1	1	7
Websley Etienne	56	2	0	5
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	4