Troy at Arkansas State Game Matchup

Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -8.5 (50.0) (-275) Open: -7.5 | 51.5
Arkansas State 34 - Troy: 31 (Sun Belt)

Jonesboro Weather
Current: Thunderstorm
Temp: 62°
Wind: 12 mph

Trojans (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (23 - 34 on Road)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TROY 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: -2 (SP+ -3.5)
PPG only: TROY: 29 - ARST: 27 (56)
ARST Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
TROY Travel: 389 miles

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (29 - 27 @ Home)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Troy's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/31	Troy vs Nevada	-7.5	44.5	L 26 - 28
Sat 9/7	Troy at Memphis	+18.5	57.5	L 17 - 38
Sat 9/14	Troy at Iowa	+23.5	39.5	L 21 - 38
Sat 9/21	Troy vs Florida A&M	-21.5	48.5	W 34 - 12
Sat 9/28	Troy vs UL Monroe	-6.0	46.0	L 9 - 13
Thu 10/3	Troy vs Texas State	+14.5	56.0	L 17 - 38
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15	Troy at South Alabama	+10.0	53.0	L 9 - 25
Sat 10/26	Troy at Arkansas State	+8.5	50.0	L 31 - 34
Sat 11/2	Troy vs Coastal Carolina	+4.0	52.0	W 38 - 24
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Troy at Georgia Southern	+7.0	54.0	W 28 - 20
Sat 11/23	Troy at Louisiana	+7.5	51.5	L 30 - 51
Sat 11/30	Troy vs Southern Miss	-17.5	48.5	W 52 - 20

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas			W 34 - 31
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State vs Tulsa	-9.5	65.5	W 28 - 24
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Michigan	+22.0	47.5	L 18 - 28
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State at Iowa State	+20.5	52.0	L 7 - 52
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+2.5	62.5	W 18 - 16
Sat 10/12	Arkansas State at Texas State	+13.5	66.0	L 9 - 41
Sat 10/19	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	-7.0	57.0	W 44 - 28
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	-8.5	50.0	W 34 - 31
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+14.0	60.0	L 19 - 55
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+2.5	60.0	W 27 - 20
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	51.5	W 28 - 21
Sat 11/30	Arkansas State vs Old Dominion	+5.5	58.5	L 32 - 40
Thu 12/26	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31

TROY's OC Sean Reagan vs ARST's DC Rob Harley ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf vs TROY's DC Dontae Wright

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY	#56 (.21)	41% (78)	26	42% (79)	3.12 (66)	154	41% (79)	265	3.78 (78)	#4 (.03)	38% (27)	28.4	37% (22)	40% (43)	2.96 (10)	46.4	1.3	1.6
ARST	#82 (.17)	42% (73)	25.8	43% (71)	3.12 (65)	148	41% (80)	225	3.21 (114)	#110 (.25)	42% (72)	32.2	44% (80)	41% (59)	4.05 (92)	60.9	1	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Offense	14	26	22.7	41.4%	3.78	1.3	21	419	154	265	4.4	48%	51%	42%	41%	15%	.21
ARST Defense	13	32.2	27.2	42.3%	4.05	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	44%	41%	15%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Defense	14	28.4	34.3	38.1%	2.96	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	37%	40%	18%	.03
ARST Offense	13	25.8	29	41.6%	3.21	1	20	374	148	225	4.2	50%	49%	43%	41%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Troy	14	30:59	21.1	41%	45%	5.1	46.4	1.3	1.6	6.9	3.1	1	30.9
Arkansas State	13	26:17	19.8	36%	35%	6.2	60.9	1	1.2	6.2	1.8	4	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Offense	14	48% (85)	42% (79)	34.6	153.9	4.4	19 (69)	.15 (75)	3.12 (66)	72% (88)	10% (62)	1.03 (50)
ARST Defense	13	50% (65)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.17 (88)	3.09 (66)	85% (124)	10% (71)	1.01 (78)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Defense	14	47% (29)	37% (22)	-	-	-	-	-.03 (10)	2.75 (18)	60% (9)	13% (9)	0.97 (48)
ARST Offense	13	50% (72)	43% (71)	35.3	148.2	4.2	20 (61)	.16 (66)	3.12 (65)	69% (104)	9% (58)	1.05 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Offense	14	51% (45)	41% (79)	19.9	32.6	265.1	8.1	13.3	29 (18)	6 (14)	.29 (66)	1.7 (41)	33% (85)	29% (80)	.3 (78)	6% (60)	2.2 (31)
ARST Defense	13	49% (73)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.34 (105)	1.6 (59)	31% (83)	24% (11)	.3 (66)	5% (111)	2.2 (116)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Defense	14	52% (105)	40% (43)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.12 (11)	1.4 (12)	34% (36)	28% (41)	.2 (16)	5% (105)	1.9 (28)
ARST Offense	13	49% (65)	41% (80)	16	28.5	225.5	7.9	14.1	17 (85)	9 (40)	.24 (83)	1.7 (40)	31% (59)	31% (68)	.28 (88)	6% (87)	2.1 (53)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: #NR
Troy's Offense Rating: #NR
Troy's Defense Rating: #NR
2024 Talent Rating: 422.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Troy's 2024 Expected Record: -
Troy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Troy's SP+ Ratings
Troy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: Arkansas State: 2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -6.6 Arkansas State: -9.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: 2 #NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: #NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: #NR
2024 Talent Rating: 646.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #NR
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: -

Arkansas State's SP+ Ratings
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 471.71
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.7
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.3

Troy's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 29
Arkansas State 27

Projected Total Points: 56

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/26	Arkansas State	34	Troy	31	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -8.5	Troy	50.0	Over
2023	10/07	Troy	37	Arkansas State	3	Troy	Troy -15.5	Troy	52.0	Under
2022	11/26	Arkansas State	19	Troy	48	Troy	Troy -13.5	Troy	43.5	Over
2020	10/31	Arkansas State	10	Troy	38	Troy	Arkansas State -3.5	Troy	0
2019	09/28	Troy	43	Arkansas State	50	Arkansas State	Troy -7	Arkansas State	59.5	Over
2017	12/02	Arkansas State	25	Troy	32	Troy	Arkansas State -1	Troy	60.0	Under
2016	11/17	Troy	3	Arkansas State	35	Arkansas State	Troy -8.5	Arkansas State	53.5	Under
2013	09/12	Arkansas State	41	Troy	34	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -10	Troy	0
2012	11/17	Troy	34	Arkansas State	41	Arkansas State
2011	12/03	Arkansas State	45	Troy	14	Arkansas State
2010	09/25	Troy	35	Arkansas State	28	Troy
2009	09/26	Arkansas State	27	Troy	30	Troy
2008	12/06	Troy	35	Arkansas State	9	Troy
2007	10/27	Arkansas State	0	Troy	27	Troy
2006	11/18	Troy	26	Arkansas State	33	Arkansas State
2005	11/12	Arkansas State	9	Troy	3	Arkansas State
2004	10/16	Arkansas State	13	Troy	9	Arkansas State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	9	2	3 Overs
Troy	8	6	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 9	1 - 7	1 - 6	0 - 1
Road Teams	9 - 8	7 - 1	1 - 0	6 - 1

(#NR) Troy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90
Talent Rating: 422.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -

Troy Notes
(11/18) 2 str W's, upset GaSo. QB Caldwell great TW
(11/3) Blasted C. Car, Rgame 344 yds, 6.4 ypc in upset
(10/27) Still fighting, close L (Ark St), Off 450+, Def bad
(10/22) QB Crowder out for season, 2 QB split for now
(10/16) Run game is awful, Run defense is almost as bad
(10/4) Runs 56% but horrible success. QB decent, D bad
(9/8) Serious Rgame issues, bad 0-2 start. Lotta flags
(9/8) QB Crower JAG, D all. 214 Ryds @ home (Nev L)

Troy Ratings Matchup Arkansas State

Power #NR

#NR

Off #NR

#NR

Def #NR

#NR

Talent #113

#65

SP+ #96

#104

SP+ Off #93

#87

SP+ Def #90

#119

Rematch from Week 9
Arkansas State -8.5 (50.0)
Arkansas State won vs Troy this year (34-31)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Troy last year (34-31)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2022 (48-19)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 66° - Wind: 9 mph

Team Information
Injuries: TROY | ARST
Depth Chart: TROY | ARST
Rosters: TROY | ARST

(#NR) Arkansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2 #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Talent Rating: 646.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #NR
Expected Record: -

Arkansas State Notes
(11/18) Close W @ GaSt, QB Rynor sucks, Rgame great
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals

Troy's OC Sean Reagan

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Matthew Caldwell	141	224	63%	1608	13	8	7.2
Will Crowder	44	63	70%	547	5	0	8.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Taylor	173	1010	7	5.8	56
Gerald Green	111	545	3	4.9	51
Tucker Kilcrease	39	118	0	3.0	25
Will Crowder	17	63	1	3.7	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devonte Ross	76	1044	11	13.7	98
Landon Parker	27	350	0	13.0	33
Peyton Higgins	31	301	1	9.7	37
Zeriah Beason	16	208	0	13.0	35

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Timmy McClain	14	21	67%	163	3	0	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Devin Spencer	40	206	0	5.2	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Courtney Jackson	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46

Troy's DC Dontae Wright

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Stringer	77	8	2	1	0
Brendan Jackson	77	16	2	2	3
Justin Powe	67	2	1	0	4
Ian Conerly-Goodly	54	2	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Phillip Lee	30	11	5	7	1
Julian Peterson	25	5	3	1	0
Jordan Stringer	77	8	2	1	0
Brendan Jackson	77	16	2	2	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Damaje Yancey	49	4	2	0	8
LJ Green	27	2	0	1	6
Justin Powe	67	2	1	0	4

Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marvin Ham II	98	10	2	1	1
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15
Jayden Jones	25	7	4	4
Ian Jeffries	21	5	4	5
Noah Collins	26	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dontay Joyner	50	1	1	7
Websley Etienne	56	2	0	5
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	4