Buffalo vs Liberty Game Matchup
Buffalo logo Buffalo Bulls vs Liberty FlamesLiberty logo
Saturday, January 4th 2025 (11:00 AM EST)
Buffalo -4.5 (50.5) (-192)  Open: -2.5 | 51.5
Buffalo 26 - Liberty: 7  (Bahamas Bowl Presented by Atlantis Resorts)

 
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (20 - 34 on Road)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Flames (8 - 4) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (13 - 1)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (32 - 22 @ Home)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Buffalo's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Thu 8/29 Buffalo vs Lafayette-3.545.5W 30 - 13
Sat 9/7 Buffalo at Missouri+34.553.5L 0 - 38
Sat 9/14 Buffalo vs Massachusetts-3.545.5W 34 - 3
Sat 9/21 Buffalo at Northern Illinois+13.042.5W 23 - 20
Sat 9/28 Buffalo at UConn+6.044.5L 3 - 47
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Buffalo vs Toledo+10.544.5W 30 - 15
Sat 10/19 Buffalo vs Western Michigan+1.049.5L 41 - 48
Sat 10/26 Buffalo at Ohio+4.046.5L 16 - 47
Sat 11/2 Buffalo at Akron+1.049.0W 41 - 30
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12 Buffalo vs Ball State-3.555.5W 51 - 48
Wed 11/20 Buffalo at Eastern Michigan+1.053.5W 37 - 20
Tue 11/26 Buffalo vs Kent State-23.550.5W 43 - 7
Sat 1/4 Buffalo vs Liberty-4.550.5W 26 - 7
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Liberty's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/31 Liberty vs Campbell-41.558.5W 41 - 24
Sat 9/7 Liberty at New Mexico State-22.554.5W 30 - 24
Sat 9/14 Liberty vs UTEP-23.557.5W 28 - 10
Sat 9/21 Liberty vs East Carolina-7.555.0W 35 - 24
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/8 Liberty vs Florida International-15.556.0W 31 - 24
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23 Liberty at Kennesaw State-27.048.0L 24 - 27
Wed 10/30 Liberty vs Jacksonville State-2.564.0L 21 - 31
Sat 11/9 Liberty at Middle Tennessee-12.554.5W 37 - 17
Sat 11/16 Liberty at Massachusetts-17.053.0W 35 - 34
Sat 11/23 Liberty vs Western Kentucky-1.056.5W 38 - 21
Fri 11/29 Liberty at Sam Houston-2.547.5L 18 - 20
Sat 1/4 Liberty vs Buffalo+4.550.5L 7 - 26
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 8
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude vs LIB's DC Jack Curtis     LIB's OC Newland Isaac vs BUFF's DC Joe Bowen

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#130 (.03)37% (116)28.843% (67)2.93 (102)13432% (129)1853.54 (95)#41 (.14)39% (33)26.437% (25)42% (68)3.55 (48)41.61.61.6
LIB#3 (.43)54% (3)28.856% (3)3.77 (2)28151% (8)1974.54 (20)#59 (.17)42% (73)23.547% (111)40% (49)3.63 (54)591.11.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense1228.82037.4%3.541.6173191341853.751%48%43%32%16%.03
LIB Defense1423.522.342.3%3.631.7 - - - - - 43%55%47%40%18%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense1226.433.738.7%3.551.6 - - - - - 56%43%37%42%18%.14
LIB Offense1428.832.354.2%4.541.1244782811976.168%32%56%51%7%.43

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo1230:3217.234%37%4.841.61.61.65.71.4229.4
Liberty1431:1823.650%55%5.9591.11.74.91.7230.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense1251% (61)43% (67)36.3133.63.715 (100).09 (102)2.93 (102)65% (119)9% (40)0.92 (103)
LIB Defense1443% (9)47% (111) - - - - .19 (94)3.14 (77)75% (86)10% (84)0.97 (49)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense1256% (119)37% (25) - - - - .15 (76)2.82 (24)65% (25)12% (19)1.25 (131)
LIB Offense1468% (4)56% (3)45.9281.36.139 (2).35 (3)3.77 (2)85% (4)5% (1)0.98 (81)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense1248% (77)32% (129)17.732.8185.35.610.514 (106)11 (68).04 (130)1.5 (99)32% (68)26% (108).16 (116)8% (119)1.9 (109)
LIB Defense1455% (125)40% (49) - - - - - - 21 (1).23 (48)1.6 (84)31% (77)29% (48).17 (9)9% (6)2.1 (94)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense1243% (13)42% (68) - - - - - - 11 (53).2 (29)1.4 (18)35% (32)28% (39).23 (30)5% (95)2 (54)
LIB Offense1432% (130)51% (8)11.619.9196.99.916.931 (14)5 (6).65 (2)1.9 (9)23% (2)38% (13).59 (8)2% (2)2.3 (18)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: #NR
Buffalo's Offense Rating: #NR
Buffalo's Defense Rating: #NR
2024 Talent Rating: 384.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Buffalo's 2024 Expected Record: -
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Buffalo's SP+ Ratings
Buffalo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 516.17
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo:    Liberty:

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -4.0   Liberty: 0.2




Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: #NR
Liberty's Offense Rating: #NR
Liberty's Defense Rating: #NR
2024 Talent Rating: 550.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #NR
Liberty's 2024 Expected Record: -

Liberty's SP+ Ratings
Liberty's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 378
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7

Buffalo's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 28
Buffalo 26

Projected Total Points: 54
Liberty Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Liberty's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202401/04Liberty7Buffalo26BuffaloBuffalo -4.5Buffalo50.5Under
202309/16Buffalo27Liberty55LibertyLiberty -2.5Liberty54.0Over
201909/14Liberty35Buffalo17LibertyBuffalo -6Liberty55.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Liberty221 Overs
Buffalo112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 21 - 20 - 01 - 2
Road Teams2 - 12 - 12 - 10 - 0

Buffalo Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024Bahamas Bowl Buffalo vs Liberty-4.550.5W 26 - 7
2022Camellia Bowl Buffalo vs Georgia Southern+6.067.0W 23 - 21
2020Camellia Bowl Buffalo vs Marshall-5.553.5W 17 - 10
2019Bahamas Bowl Buffalo vs Charlotte-7.052.0W 31 - 9
2018General Bowl Buffalo vs Troy-2.050.5L 32 - 42
Liberty Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024Bahamas Bowl Liberty vs Buffalo+4.550.5L 7 - 26
2023Fiesta Bowl Liberty vs Oregon+18.571.5L 6 - 45
2022Raton Bowl Liberty vs Toledo+4.051.5L 19 - 21
2021Lendingtree Bowl Liberty vs Eastern Michigan-9.558.5W 56 - 20
2020Cure Bowl Liberty vs Coastal Carolina+6.560.0W 37 - 34
2019Cure Bowl Liberty vs Georgia Southern+5.059.0W 23 - 16
  
(#NR) Buffalo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #87
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #93
Talent Rating: 384.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -

Buffalo has played in 4 Bowls in the last 5 years (4 - 0)
Buffalo has played in 7 Bowls since 2000 (4 - 3)

Buffalo Notes
(11/27) Hot finish, note it was vs bottom of MAC
(11/27) Killed Kent, Rgame great, Ogbonna good
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat EMU. Alive, barely, for MAC title
(11/13) Def torched, Off & QB Semonza great in Buf L
(10/20) Def torched by WMU. Off great but bad start
(10/18) DL is really undersized but linebackers very good
(10/13) Rgame 230+ yds, Run Def great in upset W (Tol)
(10/11) This may be worst Off in CFB. #133 Success
Buffalo     Ratings Matchup     Liberty
Power #NR
#NR
Off #NR
#NR
Def #NR
#NR
Talent #120
#84
SP+ #87
#71
SP+ Off #84
#60
SP+ Def #93
#70

Rematch from Week 1
Buffalo 4.5 (50.5)
Buffalo won at Liberty this year (26-7)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Liberty last year (26-7)
Liberty beat Buffalo in 2023 (55-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Thomas Robinson Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 72° - Wind: 12 mph


Team Information
Injuries: BUFF | LIB
Depth Chart: BUFF | LIB
Rosters: BUFF | LIB
(#NR) Liberty Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Talent Rating: 550.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #NR
Expected Record: -

Liberty has played in 6 Bowls in the last 5 years (3 - 3)
Liberty has played in 6 Bowls since 2000 (3 - 3)

Liberty Notes
(11/25) Rgame 400+ yds (WKU), W vs SHSU=CUSA title gm
(11/18) All. 263 (5.6 ypc) to UMass. Rgame good, Salter not
(10/30) All. 363 yds rush, 7.4 ypc vs Jax St in 2nd L
(10/23) Awful L to Ken St, Off awful outside of Salter
(10/8) Escape FIU, Rgame good, Salter avg, Pass D bad
(10/4) GOY vs App canceled. Play 1 game in entire month
(9/23) Great comeback W (ECU), Rgame good, 13-17 3rd
(9/20) WR is an issue, drops, inconsistent. Off step back




  
Buffalo's OC Dave Patenaude
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Ogbonna19033657%23811957.1
Gunnar Gray41136%41013.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson204107895.368
CJ Ogbonna12234682.826
Jacqez Barksdale8230623.719
Messiah Burch2915325.331
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow55651611.846
JJ Jenkins36536414.990
Al-Jay Henderson19238112.575
Taji Johnson19215211.334
Liberty's OC Newland Isaac
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kaidon Salter14726156%18861567.2
Ryan Burger81942%88004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Cooley2051254136.144
Billy Lucas12372055.955
Kaidon Salter11458775.141
Vaughn Blue3520715.945
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Treon Sibley28510218.270
Elijah Canion25354314.250
Reese Smith18277415.444
Tyson Mobley2927619.525

Buffalo's DC Joe Bowen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shaun Dolac16818545
Khalil Murdock15617241
Solomon Brown662006
Dion Crawford5815942
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Stewart40121032
Dion Crawford5815942
Shaun Dolac16818545
Antonio Colclough144341
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marquis Cooper553018
Solomon Brown662006
Shaun Dolac16818545
Liberty's DC Jack Curtis
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Carter885203
T.J. Bush5810614
Jerome Jolly Jr.555111
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush5810614
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
Quinton Reese405210
Joseph Carter885203
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush5810614
Joseph Carter885203
A'Khori Jones535003