SMU at Penn State Game Matchup
SMU logo SMU Mustangs at Penn State Nittany LionsPenn State logo
Saturday, December 21st 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Penn State -9 (52.5) (-325)  Open: 0.0 | 53.0
Penn State 38 - SMU: 10  (CFP First Round Game Presented by Allstate)

 
Mustangs (11 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (29 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Temp: 25.2°
Wind: 17.4 MPHBowl Game Opt OutsOur Line: Penn State -10.5    (SP+ -7)
PPG only: SMU: 27 - PSU: 28 (55)
PSU Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
SMU Travel: 1179 miles, 1 hrs behind
Nittany Lions (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (88 - 39)
Avg Score : 33 - 17 (34 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
SMU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/24 SMU at Nevada-28.055.5W 29 - 24
Sat 8/31 SMU vs Houston Christian W 59 - 7
Fri 9/6 SMU vs BYU-12.555.5L 15 - 18
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 SMU vs TCU+1.058.5W 66 - 42
Sat 9/28 SMU vs Florida State-6.046.0W 42 - 16
Sat 10/5 SMU at Louisville+6.555.0W 34 - 27
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 SMU at Stanford-16.552.5W 40 - 10
Sat 10/26 SMU at Duke-11.549.5W 28 - 27
Sat 11/2 SMU vs Pittsburgh-7.055.5W 48 - 25
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 SMU vs Boston College-19.054.5W 38 - 28
Sat 11/23 SMU at Virginia-11.554.5W 33 - 7
Sat 11/30 SMU vs California-11.554.5W 38 - 6
Sat 12/7 SMU vs Clemson-2.556.5L 31 - 34
Sat 12/21 SMU at Penn State+9.052.5L 10 - 38
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 5, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Penn State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/31 Penn State at West Virginia-7.548.0W 34 - 12
Sat 9/7 Penn State vs Bowling Green-35.551.5W 34 - 27
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Penn State vs Kent State-49.058.0W 56 - 0
Sat 9/28 Penn State vs Illinois-19.548.0W 21 - 7
Sat 10/5 Penn State vs UCLA-30.048.0W 27 - 11
Sat 10/12 Penn State at USC-3.551.5W 33 - 30
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Penn State at Wisconsin-6.547.0W 28 - 13
Sat 11/2 Penn State vs Ohio State+3.047.5L 13 - 20
Sat 11/9 Penn State vs Washington-13.548.0W 35 - 6
Sat 11/16 Penn State at Purdue-30.051.5W 49 - 10
Sat 11/23 Penn State at Minnesota-11.045.0W 26 - 25
Sat 11/30 Penn State vs Maryland-26.550.5W 44 - 7
Sat 12/7 Penn State vs Oregon+3.551.5L 37 - 45
Sat 12/21 Penn State vs SMU-9.052.5W 38 - 10
Tue 12/31 Penn State vs Boise State-11.554.5W 31 - 14
Thu 1/9 Penn State vs Notre Dame-1.545.5L 24 - 27
Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg: 3, Bad: 3, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

SMU's OC Casey Woods vs PSU's DC Tom Allen     PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki vs SMU's DC Scott Symons

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#24 (.28)44% (46)36.547% (30)3.21 (49)17742% (67)2784.51 (21)#7 (.04)36% (10)22.137% (17)35% (8)3.59 (51)40.80.91.2
PSU#40 (.25)46% (25)33.149% (17)3.38 (14)18543% (53)2154.96 (5)#8 (.04)33% (3)16.531% (3)36% (10)3.09 (15)43.30.61.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1436.52943.9%4.510.9244551772784.550%49%47%42%12%.28
PSU Defense1316.51133.1%3.091.8 - - - - - 49%50%31%36%23%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1422.122.235.7%3.591.2 - - - - - 47%52%37%35%19%.04
PSU Offense1333.133.546.3%4.960.6234001852154.750%49%49%43%11%.25

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1430:2123.543%59%4.640.80.91.26.63.1530.4
Penn State1332:3022.541%77%543.30.61.87.83.8333.8
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1450% (66)47% (30)39.7176.64.529 (22).18 (52)3.21 (49)85% (2)6% (4)0.88 (122)
PSU Defense1349% (52)31% (3) - - - - -.04 (7)2.23 (2)76% (89)18% (1)0.96 (46)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1447% (38)37% (17) - - - - .04 (19)2.9 (35)67% (30)12% (23)0.97 (50)
PSU Offense1350% (65)49% (17)39.6184.84.726 (30).19 (46)3.38 (14)73% (77)7% (8)0.85 (123)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1449% (71)42% (67)19.633.2278.48.414.233 (11)8 (30).45 (16)2 (3)31% (57)33% (44).38 (53)6% (58)2.1 (46)
PSU Defense1350% (77)36% (10) - - - - - - 12 (37).2 (25)1.7 (94)39% (2)26% (19).21 (21)6% (86)2.1 (74)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1452% (97)35% (8) - - - - - - 12 (37).09 (8)1.7 (87)36% (18)22% (1).07 (2)8% (19)2.1 (70)
PSU Offense1349% (63)43% (53)18.931.72156.811.430 (16)2 (1).3 (62)1.5 (115)27% (9)35% (23).38 (50)4% (7)1.7 (129)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 15.59 #13
SMU's Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
2024 Talent Rating: 734.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #47
SMU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

SMU's SP+ Ratings
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 15.59   Penn State: 26.26

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 17.5   Penn State: 24.6




Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 26.26 #6
Penn State's Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
2024 Talent Rating: 936.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 42 #15
Penn State's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0

Penn State's SP+ Ratings
Penn State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 28
SMU 27

Projected Total Points: 55
Penn State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.5
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 11

Penn State's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202412/21Penn State38SMU10Penn StatePenn State -9Penn State52.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Penn State110 Overs
SMU001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

SMU Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024CFP 1st Round SMU vs Penn State+9.052.5L 10 - 38
2023Fenway Bowl SMU vs Boston College-13.549.0L 14 - 23
2022Mexico Bowl SMU vs BYU-4.565.0L 23 - 24
2019Raton Bowl SMU vs Florida Atlantic-7.564.0L 28 - 52
Penn State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024CFP Semifinal Penn State vs Notre Dame-1.545.5L 24 - 27
2024CFP Quarterfinal Penn State vs Boise State-11.554.5W 31 - 14
2024CFP 1st Round Penn State vs SMU-9.052.5W 38 - 10
2023Peach Bowl Penn State vs Ole Miss-5.553.0L 25 - 38
2022Rose Bowl Penn State vs Utah-1.555.5W 35 - 21
2021Outback Bowl Penn State vs Arkansas+3.551.0L 10 - 24
2019Cotton Bowl Penn State vs Memphis-7.059.5W 53 - 39
2018Citrus Bowl Penn State vs Kentucky-4.547.5L 24 - 27
  
(#13) SMU Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 15.59 #13
Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30
Talent Rating: 734.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #47
Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0

SMU has played in 1 CFP Playoff Games (0 - 1)
SMU has played in 4 Bowls in the last 5 years (0 - 4)
SMU has played in 9 Bowls since 2000 (3 - 6)

SMU Notes
(8/12) Metrics likely overrate reality in 1st yr in ACC
(11/25) Rgame bad, Jennings good, Def great vs UVA
(11/18) QB Jennings torched BC, Def suspect but held on
(11/2) Real deal. Routed Pitt, Rgame good, Def great
(10/27) 0-6 TOs & still beat Duke? Off good but v sloppy
(10/22) TE & lead receiver Maryland out for season
(10/22) Def stop rate 70% (#25) into Duke game
(10/8) Lead nation in points off turnovers 1st 6 wks
SMU     Ratings Matchup     Penn State
Power #13
#6
Off #28
#2
Def #5
#7
Talent #47
#11
SP+ #12
#5
SP+ Off #5
#9
SP+ Def #30
#4

Rematch from Week 1
Penn State -9.0 (52.5)
Penn State won vs SMU this year (38-10)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat SMU last year (38-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 25° - Wind: 17 mph


Team Information
Injuries: SMU | PSU
Depth Chart: SMU | PSU
Rosters: SMU | PSU
(#6) Penn State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 26.26 #6
Offense Rating: 29.70 #2
Defense Rating: 1.50 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #5
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.1 #4
Talent Rating: 936.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 42 #15
Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0

Penn State has played in 3 CFP Playoff Games (2 - 1)
Penn State has played in 7 Bowls in the last 5 years (4 - 3)
Penn State has played in 20 Bowls since 2000 (10 - 10)

Penn State Notes
(11/26) Star OT Donkoh out for season (knee)
(11/23) Dog fight @ Minn. 2 kicks blocked. 3.5 ypc
(11/13) Off much better vs Wash, 220 pass, 266 run
(11/3) WR are bad. Allar OK but has no weapons w/o TE
(11/2) Franklin 1-10 vs top 10. Same shit, diff year
(11/2) Off did not score vs OSU. Allar meh, WR awful
(10/27) QB Allar missed 2nd H Wisconsin game
(10/27) Off efficient and spread out vs Wisky, Def good




  
SMU's OC Casey Woods
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings24838165%318923118.4
Preston Stone305159%421518.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brashard Smith2341330145.771
Kevin Jennings10135453.559
LJ Johnson Jr.7430354.135
Roderick Daniels4416033.613
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Roderick Daniels42601414.381
Keyshawn Smith33527516.045
Jordan Hudson39422510.842
Kelvontay Dixon21386118.487
Penn State's OC Andy Kotelnicki
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar26239467%33272488.4
Beau Pribula263574%275517.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen220110885.032
Nicholas Singleton1721099126.458
Drew Allar9630263.122
Beau Pribula3824246.449
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyler Warren1041233811.938
Harrison Wallace III47732415.650
Omari Evans20403520.259
Nicholas Singleton4137559.127

SMU's DC Scott Symons
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Wilson1026341
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Ahmad Walker888143
Ahmaad Moses646003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahfari Harvey3013891
Isaiah Smith319761
Jared Harrison-Hunte408750
Elijah Roberts32107101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Crossley301016
Jonathan McGill522016
Deuce Harmon282006
Penn State's DC Tom Allen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Reed957312
Kobe King878311
Zakee Wheatley863104
Abdul Carter62241294
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Abdul Carter62241294
Dani Dennis-Sutton4013993
Amin Vanover215431
Jaylen Reed957312
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliot Washington II251006
A.J. Harris413005
Cam Miller233025