Toledo at Kentucky Game Matchup
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Kentucky WildcatsKentucky logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Commonwealth Stadium - Lexington, KY

 
Rockets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1.9 - 1.1 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Kentucky -12    (SP+ -9)
PPG only: TOL: 25 - UK: 22 (47)
TOL Win prob: 49% | Cover: 49%
TOL Travel: 256 miles
Wildcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (22 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#64)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/30 Toledo at Kentucky
Sat 9/6 Toledo vs Western Kentucky
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Toledo at Washington State
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville
Total: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

TOL's OC Mike Hallett vs UK's DC Brad White     UK's OC Bush Hamdan vs TOL's DC Vince Kehres

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#112 (.11)41% (96)28.338% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (44)23.242% (60)38% (35)3.87 (80)46.71.31.3
UK#118 (.09)41% (90)20.647% (32)3.02 (72)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)22.149% (121)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1328.322.240.8%3.551.3183391112273.546%53%38%44%16%.11
UK Defense1222.117.646%3.441.3 - - - - - 58%42%49%42%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1323.221.339.8%3.871.3 - - - - - 52%48%42%38%19%.09
UK Offense1220.621.941.5%3.491.919331146185454%46%47%35%19%.09

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1325:0618.436%50%5.446.71.31.36.22.1231.4
Kentucky1229:3219.434%44%6.352.11.91.35.61.8227
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1346% (96)38% (120)31.5111.33.512 (114)-.04 (127)2.66 (121)57% (130)10% (75)0.83 (125)
UK Defense1258% (129)49% (121) - - - - .14 (75)3 (67)78% (101)12% (32)0.88 (25)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1352% (85)42% (60) - - - - .11 (66)3.01 (69)77% (89)12% (31)0.95 (48)
UK Offense1254% (37)47% (32)36.7146.4411 (116).05 (107)3.02 (72)73% (71)13% (120)0.73 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1353% (41)44% (46)19.231227.27.311.826 (26)7 (26).26 (66)1.6 (61)31% (64)27% (108).18 (115)6% (76)2 (69)
UK Defense1242% (7)42% (75) - - - - - - 10 (66).19 (46)1.5 (29)29% (109)31% (83).3 (67)5% (95)2 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1348% (49)38% (35) - - - - - - 10 (66).08 (12)1.5 (31)34% (38)29% (37).22 (34)7% (35)2 (42)
UK Offense1246% (96)35% (123)13.926184.87.113.315 (98)17 (127).13 (117)1.9 (11)33% (92)28% (104).18 (114)7% (103)2.1 (48)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -1.47 #80
Toledo's Offense Rating: 12.96 #78
Toledo's Defense Rating: 14.43 #72
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #69
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 1.9 - 1.1
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #74
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #75
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #71

Toledo's SP+ Ratings
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #74
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #75
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #71

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 544.83
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -1.47   Kentucky: 10.71

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -2.2   Kentucky: 6.4




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 10.71 #44
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.08 #54
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 8.37 #39
2025 Talent Rating: 862.00 #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 27 #22
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Kentucky's SP+ Ratings
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.4 #40
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #73
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #25

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 945.13
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 25.2
Kentucky 21.9

Projected Total Points: 47
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201908/31Kentucky38Toledo24KentuckyKentucky -9.5Kentucky60.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky111 Overs
Toledo000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#80) Toledo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -1.47 #80
Offense Rating: 12.96 #78
Defense Rating: 14.43 #72
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #74
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #75
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #71
Talent Rating: 702.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #69
Expected Record: 1.9 - 1.1

Toledo     Ratings Matchup     Kentucky
Power #80
#44
Off #78
#54
Def #72
#39
Talent #71
#28
SP+ #74
#40
SP+ Off #75
#73
SP+ Def #71
#25

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TOL | UK
Depth Chart: TOL | UK
Rosters: TOL | UK
(#44) Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 10.71 #44
Offense Rating: 17.08 #54
Defense Rating: 8.37 #39
Overall SP+ Rating: 6.4 #40
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #73
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #25
Talent Rating: 862.00 #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 27 #22
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0





  
Toledo's OC Mike Hallett
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Gleason20733562%24572277.3
John Alan Richter436764%497407.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Connor Walendzak12245713.732
Tucker Gleason8833063.835
Willie Shaw III4619034.113
Trayvon Rudolph14179212.860
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Junior Vandeross73763410.573
Trayvon Rudolph37403110.948
Thomas Zsiros12148112.325
Eric Holley1412609.040
Kentucky's OC Bush Hamdan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cutter Boley265349%338246.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dante Dowdell143614124.338
Jamarion Wilcox9259026.450
Jason Patterson2011105.623
Kendrick Law83003.821
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tru Edwards85989611.686
Javian Hester14315122.590
Jay Maclin13313424.183
Troy Stellato26266110.234

Toledo's DC Vince Kehres
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braden Awls673107
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren612104
Avery Smith5010013
Louce Julien437411
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Louce Julien437411
Anthony Dunn257420
Malachi Davis194210
Jeremiah Peters94110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Avery Smith5010013
Braden Awls673107
Nasir Bowers352004
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landyn Watson664030
Jordan Lovett631001
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
J.Q. Hardaway470003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameron Olds427621
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
Sam Greene153120
David Gusta203163
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols100005
J.Q. Hardaway470003
David Gusta203163