Mississippi State at Southern Miss Game Matchup

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Saturday, August 30th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
M. M. Roberts Stadium - Hattiesburg, MS

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#77)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)

Our Line: Mississippi State -10.5 (SP+ -18.5)
PPG only: MSST: 32 - USM: 25 (57)
MSST Win prob: 49% | Cover: 49%
MSST Travel: 150 miles

Golden Eagles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 15 - 38 (20 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1.2 - 1.8 (#90)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/30	Mississippi State at Southern Miss
Sat 9/6	Mississippi State vs Arizona State
Sat 9/13	Mississippi State vs Alcorn State
Sat 9/20	Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois
Sat 9/27	Mississippi State vs Tennessee
Sat 10/4	Mississippi State at Texas A&M
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Mississippi State at Florida
Sat 10/25	Mississippi State vs Texas
Sat 11/1	Mississippi State at Arkansas
Sat 11/8	Mississippi State vs Georgia
Sat 11/15	Mississippi State at Missouri
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 8/30	Southern Miss vs Mississippi State
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech
Sat 9/27	Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby vs USM's DC Jason Semore USM's OC Blake Anderson vs MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)	25.8	40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (85)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)	34.1	47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9
USM	#132 ()	35% (130)	15.3	40% (108)	2.59 (126)	109	30% (133)	175	2.75 (133)	#125 (.3)	44% (97)	37.8	45% (90)	43% (93)	4.17 (104)	48.3	2.4	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	12	25.8	19	39.2%	3.75	1.5	20	378	139	239	4	50%	50%	40%	38%	21%	.17
USM Defense	12	37.8	33	44.1%	4.17	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	45%	43%	14%	.3

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	12	34.1	33	50.4%	4.32	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	47%	55%	11%	.32
USM Offense	12	15.3	19.5	34.7%	2.75	2.4	16	284	109	175	3.2	49%	51%	40%	30%	26%

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	12	25:41	20.3	37%	57%	6.8	60.3	1.5	0.9	3.9	0.8	2	28.1
Southern Miss	12	27:22	15.5	25%	44%	6	48.3	2.4	0.8	5.4	1.7	2	26.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	12	50% (73)	40% (105)	34.8	138.6	4	19 (73)	.09 (92)	2.9 (93)	73% (71)	13% (121)	1.08 (28)
USM Defense	12	55% (116)	45% (90)	-	-	-	-	.27 (129)	3.22 (101)	71% (54)	10% (80)	1.21 (131)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	12	59% (132)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.15 (80)	3.3 (113)	71% (57)	7% (132)	0.85 (13)
USM Offense	12	49% (79)	40% (108)	34.2	109	3.2	13 (105)	.06 (103)	2.59 (126)	61% (124)	18% (133)	1 (53)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	12	50% (62)	38% (104)	17.9	30.6	239.3	7.8	13.4	19 (65)	8 (40)	.25 (76)	1.8 (18)	34% (113)	32% (63)	.33 (74)	8% (116)	2.1 (56)
USM Defense	12	45% (20)	43% (93)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.35 (114)	1.7 (114)	31% (78)	35% (114)	.51 (124)	5% (113)	2.2 (116)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	12	41% (3)	55% (134)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.58 (134)	1.5 (48)	24% (134)	39% (131)	.55 (130)	4% (123)	1.9 (38)
USM Offense	12	51% (55)	30% (133)	13.8	26.5	174.9	6.6	12.6	7 (130)	17 (127)	-.05 (134)	1.7 (30)	38% (130)	24% (125)	.15 (129)	8% (122)	2.1 (47)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 2.59 #59
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 18.69 #44
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 16.10 #81
2025 Talent Rating: 778.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #28
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.0 #63
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #59
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #67

Mississippi State's SP+ Ratings
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.0 #63
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #59
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #67

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 945.13
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 2.59 Southern Miss: -7.83

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 0.0 Southern Miss: -18.6

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -7.83 #99
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.42 #100
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 17.25 #91
2025 Talent Rating: 766.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Southern Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 1.2 - 1.8

Southern Miss's SP+ Ratings
Southern Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.6 #128
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #112
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.7 #127

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 566.5
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 32
Southern Miss 25

Projected Total Points: 57

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 15.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 33

Southern Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/18	Mississippi State	41	Southern Miss	20	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -18.5	Mississippi State	47.5	Over
2019	09/07	Mississippi State	38	Southern Miss	15	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -16.5	Mississippi State	51.0	Over
2015	09/05	Southern Miss	16	Mississippi State	34	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -13	Mississippi State	62.0	Under
2014	08/30	Mississippi State	49	Southern Miss	0	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -26	Mississippi State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Southern Miss	0	0	2 Overs
Mississippi State	4	4	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 1	3 - 1	3 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 3	1 - 3	1 - 0	0 - 3

(#59) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.59 #59
Offense Rating: 18.69 #44
Defense Rating: 16.10 #81
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.0 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #59
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #67
Talent Rating: 778.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #28
Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3

Mississippi State Ratings Matchup Southern Miss

Power #59

#99

Off #44

#100

Def #81

#91

Talent #50

#56

SP+ #63

#128

SP+ Off #59

#112

SP+ Def #67

#127

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (41-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | USM
Depth Chart: MSST | USM
Rosters: MSST | USM

(#99) Southern Miss Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.83 #99
Offense Rating: 7.42 #100
Defense Rating: 17.25 #91
Overall SP+ Rating: -18.6 #128
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #112
Defense SP+ Rating: 38.7 #127
Talent Rating: 766.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 1.2 - 1.8

Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0
Luke Kromenhoek	44	84	52%	502	3	2	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell	112	834	13	7.4	59
Davon Booth	152	759	5	5.0	43
Johnnie Daniels	108	540	4	5.0	36
Xavier Gayten	8	115	1	14.4	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Markus Allen	42	636	3	15.1	78
Jordan Mosley	23	405	3	17.6	65
Cam Thompson	27	388	3	14.4	54
Seydou Traore	34	361	1	10.6	32

Southern Miss's OC Blake Anderson

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Braylon Braxton	124	206	60%	1624	19	2	7.9
John White	17	31	55%	240	0	3	7.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braylon Braxton	134	610	4	4.6	35
Matt Jones	43	211	3	4.9	46
Jalen Washington	26	118	1	4.5	14
JQ Gray	32	106	0	3.3	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Larry Simmons	27	421	1	15.6	75
Tiaquelin Mims	33	393	1	11.9	56
Charles Montgomery	32	393	3	12.3	30
Carl Chester	20	342	3	17.1	42

Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Jahron Manning	85	6	1	0	3
Nic Mitchell	80	3	0	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nevaeh Sanders	8	5	5	2	0
Zakari Tillman	30	4	4	1	2
Will Whitson	20	4	2	2	0
Malick Sylla	6	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayven Williams	29	2	2	1	4
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Jahron Manning	85	6	1	0	3

Southern Miss's DC Jason Semore

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Ian Foster	48	5	0	4
Chris Jones	46	3	1	1
Brodarius Lewis	39	8	4	0
Josh Moten	38	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brodarius Lewis	39	8	4	0	0
Jabari Ishmael	22	3	2	5	1
Ahmere Foster	37	2	1	0	2
Chris Jones	46	3	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josh Moten	38	0	0	0	5
Ian Foster	48	5	0	0	4
JJ Hawkins	22	2	1	7	3