Mississippi State at Florida Game Matchup
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at Florida GatorsFlorida logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium - Gainesville, FL  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#77)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
MSST coming off BYE
Our Line: Florida -20    (SP+ -14)
PPG only: MSST: 25 - FLA: 31 (56)
MSST Win prob: 49% | Cover: 49%
MSST Travel: 462 miles, 1 hrs behind
Gators (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (29 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#39)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 7) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
 
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss
Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State
Total: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby vs FLA's DC Ron Roberts     FLA's OC Rob Sale vs MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)25.840% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (85)#130 (.32)50% (133)34.147% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)28.345% (52)3.04 (68)16441% (81)2264.17 (45)#53 (.14)44% (95)23.149% (117)39% (44)3.12 (15)541.41.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1225.81939.2%3.751.520378139239450%50%40%38%21%.17
FLA Defense1323.12143.9%3.121.9 - - - - - 51%49%49%39%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1234.13350.4%4.320.9 - - - - - 59%41%47%55%11%.32
FLA Offense1328.329.343%4.171.4193891642264.654%46%45%41%16%.18

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.8228.1
Florida1328:3519.239%47%5.9541.41.96.43.1130.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (121)1.08 (28)
FLA Defense1351% (72)49% (117) - - - - .13 (73)3.06 (78)67% (30)11% (37)0.84 (10)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (132)0.85 (13)
FLA Offense1354% (44)45% (52)35.4163.74.626 (36).14 (65)3.04 (68)79% (27)9% (56)0.94 (83)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (63).33 (74)8% (116)2.1 (56)
FLA Defense1349% (66)39% (44) - - - - - - 14 (23).16 (34)1.6 (87)31% (86)37% (124).42 (108)7% (44)2 (58)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)
FLA Offense1346% (89)41% (81)1626.1225.78.714.118 (68)14 (115).25 (73)1.6 (48)31% (54)28% (105).22 (107)7% (89)1.8 (119)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 2.59 #59
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 18.69 #44
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 16.10 #81
2025 Talent Rating: 778.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #28
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.0 #63
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #59
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #67

Mississippi State's SP+ Ratings
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.0 #63
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #59
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #67

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 945.13
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 2.59   Florida: 22.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 0.0   Florida: 14.4




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 22.74 #15
Florida's Offense Rating: 26.09 #11
Florida's Defense Rating: 5.35 #26
2025 Talent Rating: 984.00 #14
Blue Chip Ratio: 47 #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9

Florida's SP+ Ratings
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.4 #17
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #22
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #22

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 945.13
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida 31
Mississippi State 25

Projected Total Points: 56
Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/21Mississippi State28Florida45FloridaFlorida -6.5Florida58.0Over
201809/29Mississippi State6Florida13FloridaMississippi State -6.5Florida49.5Under
201010/16Florida7Mississippi State10Mississippi State
200910/24Mississippi State19Florida29Florida
200510/08Florida35Mississippi State9Florida
200410/23Mississippi State38Florida31Mississippi State
200109/29Florida52Mississippi State0Florida
200009/29Mississippi State47Florida35Mississippi State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida521 Overs
Mississippi State301 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 40 - 20 - 10 - 1
Road Teams4 - 42 - 01 - 01 - 0

(#59) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.59 #59
Offense Rating: 18.69 #44
Defense Rating: 16.10 #81
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.0 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #59
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #67
Talent Rating: 778.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #28
Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3

Mississippi State     Ratings Matchup     Florida
Power #59
#15
Off #44
#11
Def #81
#26
Talent #50
#14
SP+ #63
#17
SP+ Off #59
#22
SP+ Def #67
#22

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Mississippi State last year (45-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | FLA
Depth Chart: MSST | FLA
Rosters: MSST | FLA
(#15) Florida Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 22.74 #15
Offense Rating: 26.09 #11
Defense Rating: 5.35 #26
Overall SP+ Rating: 14.4 #17
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #22
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #22
Talent Rating: 984.00 #14
Blue Chip Ratio: 47 #12
Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9





  
Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen7410869%974819.0
Luke Kromenhoek448452%502326.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell112834137.459
Davon Booth15275955.043
Johnnie Daniels10854045.036
Xavier Gayten8115114.472
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Markus Allen42636315.178
Jordan Mosley23405317.665
Cam Thompson27388314.454
Seydou Traore34361110.632
Florida's OC Rob Sale
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway11519260%191512910.0
Aidan Warner215042%228034.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh13367375.155
Ja'Kobi Jackson9350075.420
D.J. Lagway5110102.022
Treyaun Webb219314.414
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.Michael Sturdivant22315214.345
Eugene Wilson19266114.085
Hayden Hansen15207113.840
Aidan Mizell17202211.943

Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith1272003
Jahron Manning856103
Nic Mitchell803012
Branden Jennings565242
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nevaeh Sanders85520
Zakari Tillman304412
Will Whitson204220
Malick Sylla63200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayven Williams292214
Isaac Smith1272003
Jahron Manning856103
Florida's DC Ron Roberts
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell551009
Jaden Robinson524410
Tyreak Sapp4613750
Bryce Thornton412013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp4613750
George Gumbs369642
Caleb Banks217561
Jaden Robinson524410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell551009
Bryce Thornton412013
Aaron Gates274013