Texas at Mississippi State Game Matchup
Texas logo Texas Longhorns at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Davis Wade Stadium - Starkville, MS  (SEC)

 
Longhorns (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 33 - 15 (24 - 13 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 2.6 (#10)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
TEX 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Texas -23    (SP+ -22)
PPG only: TEX: 34 - MSST: 21 (55)
TEX Win prob: 49% | Cover: 49%
TEX Travel: 568 miles
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#77)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/30 Texas at Ohio State
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Texas vs Sam Houston
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas
Sat 11/29 Texas vs Texas A&M
Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss
Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

TEX's OC Kyle Flood vs MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler     MSST's OC Jeff Lebby vs TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX#40 (.24)46% (27)3349% (17)2.95 (84)15244% (44)2414.03 (55)#3 (-.01)38% (21)15.342% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)25.840% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (85)#130 (.32)50% (133)34.147% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Offense163323.846.3%4.031.4203931522414.746%54%49%44%16%.24
MSST Defense1234.134.950.4%4.320.9 - - - - - 59%41%47%55%11%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Defense1615.313.338%2.571.8 - - - - - 50%50%42%34%21%-.01
MSST Offense1225.830.739.2%3.751.520378139239450%50%40%38%21%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas1626:4219.843%54%5.444.31.41.86.22.5131.4
Mississippi State1225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.8228.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Offense1646% (98)49% (17)32.6152.24.725 (41).13 (73)2.95 (84)67% (106)11% (99)0.91 (96)
MSST Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (132)0.85 (13)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Defense1650% (59)42% (61) - - - - -.04 (3)2.79 (33)55% (2)14% (9)0.72 (3)
MSST Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (121)1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Offense1654% (34)44% (44)19.629.5240.98.212.335 (3)12 (85).33 (34)1.7 (28)32% (71)38% (8).51 (7)5% (40)2.1 (57)
MSST Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Defense1650% (78)34% (7) - - - - - - 20 (2).04 (3)1.4 (14)33% (54)28% (34).14 (7)8% (17)1.6 (3)
MSST Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (63).33 (74)8% (116)2.1 (56)

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 27.77 #8
Texas's Offense Rating: 24.13 #16
Texas's Defense Rating: -3.64 #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1076.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 55% #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 9.4 - 2.6
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.9 #7
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #26
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.1 #1

Texas's SP+ Ratings
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.9 #7
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #26
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.1 #1

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 945.13
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas: 27.77   Mississippi State: 4.59

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 21.9   Mississippi State: 0.0




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 4.59 #59
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 18.69 #44
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 16.10 #81
2025 Talent Rating: 778.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 17 #28
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3

Mississippi State's SP+ Ratings
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.0 #63
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #59
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #67

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 945.13
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93


Texas Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.8
Defense: 15.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 13.3

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 34
Mississippi State 21

Projected Total Points: 55
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Texas35Mississippi State13TexasTexas -37Mississippi State58.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State010 Overs
Texas101 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#8) Texas Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 27.77 #8
Offense Rating: 24.13 #16
Defense Rating: -3.64 #1
Overall SP+ Rating: 21.9 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #26
Defense SP+ Rating: 10.1 #1
Talent Rating: 1076.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 55% #6
Expected Record: 9.4 - 2.6

Texas     Ratings Matchup     Mississippi State
Power #8
#59
Off #16
#44
Def #1
#81
Talent #6
#50
SP+ #7
#63
SP+ Off #26
#59
SP+ Def #1
#67

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Mississippi State last year (35-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TEX | MSST
Depth Chart: TEX | MSST
Rosters: TEX | MSST
(#59) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.59 #59
Offense Rating: 18.69 #44
Defense Rating: 16.10 #81
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.0 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #59
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #67
Talent Rating: 778.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 17 #28
Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3





  
Texas's OC Kyle Flood
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning619068%9389210.4
Trey Owens2450%19004.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner226106454.743
Jerrick Gibson7837744.825
Arch Manning2510844.367
Ryan Wingo5100020.055
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
DeAndre Moore Jr.39455711.749
Ryan Wingo27423215.775
Tre Wisner4431117.150
Juan Davis95406.011
Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen7410869%974819.0
Luke Kromenhoek448452%502326.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell112834137.459
Davon Booth15275955.043
Johnnie Daniels10854045.036
Xavier Gayten8115114.472
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Markus Allen42636315.178
Jordan Mosley23405317.665
Cam Thompson27388314.454
Seydou Traore34361110.632

Texas's DC Pete Kwiatkowski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Hill Jr.11317841
Michael Taaffe7862110
Liona Lefau635202
Jaylon Guilbeau586103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons4814992
Anthony Hill Jr.11317841
Trey Moore3611761
Brad Spence556511
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Taaffe7862110
Malik Muhammad361008
Ethan Burke279214
Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith1272003
Jahron Manning856103
Nic Mitchell803012
Branden Jennings565242
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nevaeh Sanders85520
Zakari Tillman304412
Will Whitson204220
Malick Sylla63200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayven Williams292214
Isaac Smith1272003
Jahron Manning856103