Mississippi State at Arkansas Game Matchup
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field - Fayetteville, AR  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#77)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
ARK 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Arkansas -12    (SP+ -8)
PPG only: MSST: 25 - ARK: 33 (58)
MSST Win prob: 49% | Cover: 49%
MSST Travel: 355 miles
Razorbacks (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (24 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#59)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
 
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss
Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/30 Arkansas vs Alabama A&M
Sat 9/6 Arkansas vs Arkansas State
Sat 9/13 Arkansas at Ole Miss
Sat 9/20 Arkansas at Memphis
Sat 9/27 Arkansas vs Notre Dame
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arkansas at Tennessee
Sat 10/18 Arkansas vs Texas A&M
Sat 10/25 Arkansas vs Auburn
Sat 11/1 Arkansas vs Mississippi State
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arkansas at LSU
Sat 11/22 Arkansas at Texas
Sat 11/29 Arkansas vs Missouri
Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby vs ARK's DC Travis Williams     ARK's OC Bobby Petrino vs MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)25.840% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (85)#130 (.32)50% (133)34.147% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
ARK#29 (.25)48% (13)30.952% (5)3.23 (38)16844% (42)2483.95 (64)#45 (.13)42% (67)2539% (31)44% (100)3.31 (23)56.31.71
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1225.81939.2%3.751.520378139239450%50%40%38%21%.17
ARK Defense132528.741.5%3.311 - - - - - 50%50%39%44%14%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1234.13350.4%4.320.9 - - - - - 59%41%47%55%11%.32
ARK Offense1330.923.748.2%3.951.7234161682484.951%48%52%44%19%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.8228.1
Arkansas1328:0722.643%59%6.456.31.714.41.9027.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (121)1.08 (28)
ARK Defense1350% (65)39% (31) - - - - -.01 (10)2.84 (42)79% (104)8% (123)0.82 (8)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (132)0.85 (13)
ARK Offense1351% (64)52% (5)34.4167.94.932 (14).21 (30)3.23 (38)82% (13)12% (108)0.97 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (63).33 (74)8% (116)2.1 (56)
ARK Defense1350% (69)44% (100) - - - - - - 8 (93).28 (92)1.5 (43)33% (49)27% (23).2 (26)7% (46)1.9 (37)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)
ARK Offense1348% (71)44% (42)18.830.2248.48.213.214 (108)9 (48).3 (47)1.6 (42)32% (72)37% (17).43 (26)7% (106)2.2 (25)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 2.59 #59
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 18.69 #44
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 16.10 #81
2025 Talent Rating: 778.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #28
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.0 #63
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #59
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #67

Mississippi State's SP+ Ratings
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.0 #63
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #59
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #67

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 945.13
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 2.59   Arkansas: 14.58

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 0.0   Arkansas: 8.2




Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 14.58 #29
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 22.23 #26
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 9.65 #44
2025 Talent Rating: 778.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 13 #32
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6

Arkansas's SP+ Ratings
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.2 #34
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #30
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #39

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 945.13
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas 33
Mississippi State 25

Projected Total Points: 58
Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.7
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.7

Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Mississippi State25Arkansas58ArkansasArkansas -7.5Arkansas55.0Over
202310/21Arkansas3Mississippi State7Mississippi StateArkansas -6.5Mississippi State46.5Under
202210/08Mississippi State40Arkansas17Mississippi StateMississippi State -8Mississippi State55.5Over
202111/06Arkansas31Mississippi State28ArkansasArkansas -4Mississippi State54.0Over
202010/03Mississippi State14Arkansas21ArkansasMississippi State -16.5Arkansas68.0Under
201911/02Arkansas24Mississippi State54Mississippi StateMississippi State -7Mississippi State59.0Over
201811/17Mississippi State52Arkansas6Mississippi StateMississippi State -22.5Mississippi State49.0Over
201711/18Arkansas21Mississippi State28Mississippi StateMississippi State -14Arkansas56.0Under
201611/19Mississippi State42Arkansas58ArkansasMississippi State -1Arkansas57.5Over
201511/21Arkansas50Mississippi State51Mississippi StateArkansas -3Mississippi State59.0Over
201411/01Mississippi State17Arkansas10Mississippi StateMississippi State -14Arkansas0
201311/23Arkansas17Mississippi State24Mississippi StateMississippi State -3Mississippi State0
201211/17Mississippi State45Arkansas14Mississippi State
201111/19Arkansas44Mississippi State17Arkansas
201011/20Mississippi State31Arkansas38Arkansas
200911/21Arkansas42Mississippi State21Arkansas
200811/22Mississippi State31Arkansas28Mississippi State
200711/17Arkansas45Mississippi State31Arkansas
200611/18Mississippi State14Arkansas28Arkansas
200511/19Arkansas44Mississippi State10Arkansas
200411/20Mississippi State21Arkansas24Arkansas
200311/22Arkansas52Mississippi State6Arkansas
200111/17Arkansas24Mississippi State21Arkansas
200011/17Mississippi State10Arkansas17Arkansas
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas1457 Overs
Mississippi State1073 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 123 - 92 - 61 - 3
Road Teams12 - 129 - 33 - 16 - 2

(#59) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.59 #59
Offense Rating: 18.69 #44
Defense Rating: 16.10 #81
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.0 #63
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #59
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #67
Talent Rating: 778.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #28
Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3

Mississippi State     Ratings Matchup     Arkansas
Power #59
#29
Off #44
#26
Def #81
#44
Talent #50
#50
SP+ #63
#34
SP+ Off #59
#30
SP+ Def #67
#39

Previous Matchups
Arkansas beat Mississippi State last year (58-25)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2023 (7-3)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2022 (40-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | ARK
Depth Chart: MSST | ARK
Rosters: MSST | ARK
(#29) Arkansas Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 14.58 #29
Offense Rating: 22.23 #26
Defense Rating: 9.65 #44
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.2 #34
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #30
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #39
Talent Rating: 778.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 13 #32
Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6





  
Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen7410869%974819.0
Luke Kromenhoek448452%502326.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell112834137.459
Davon Booth15275955.043
Johnnie Daniels10854045.036
Xavier Gayten8115114.472
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Markus Allen42636315.178
Jordan Mosley23405317.665
Cam Thompson27388314.454
Seydou Traore34361110.632
Arkansas's OC Bobby Petrino
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taylen Green23038160%31531598.3
KJ Jackson44100%590014.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Washington15871384.547
Taylen Green15660283.941
Rodney Hill2818426.670
Raylen Sharpe472018.056
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
O'Mega Blake32795924.875
Kameran Shanks62656610.667
Raylen Sharpe51523310.338
Ismael Cisse2624129.325

Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith1272003
Jahron Manning856103
Nic Mitchell803012
Branden Jennings565242
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nevaeh Sanders85520
Zakari Tillman304412
Will Whitson204220
Malick Sylla63200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayven Williams292214
Isaac Smith1272003
Jahron Manning856103
Arkansas's DC Travis Williams
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavian Sorey Jr.9910231
Stephen Dix Jr.703231
Quentavius Scandrett540012
Larry Worth532102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Stephen Dix Jr.703231
Xavian Sorey Jr.9910231
Cameron Ball464220
Ken Talley62220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kani Walker242006
Jordan Young351005
Quentavius Scandrett540012