Virginia at North Carolina Game Matchup
Virginia logo Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar HeelsNorth Carolina logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Kenan Memorial Stadium - Chapel Hill, NC  (ACC)

 
Cavaliers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (11 - 23)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (27 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#52)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)
Our Line: North Carolina -4.5    (SP+ -9)
PPG only: UVA: 25 - UNC: 30 (55)
UVA Win prob: 49% | Cover: 49%
UVA Travel: 150 miles
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (36 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#45)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)
 
Virginia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/30 Virginia vs Coastal Carolina
Sat 9/6 Virginia at NC State
Sat 9/13 Virginia vs William & Mary
Sat 9/20 Virginia vs Stanford
Fri 9/26 Virginia vs Florida State
Sat 10/4 Virginia at Louisville
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Virginia vs Washington State
Sat 10/25 Virginia at North Carolina
Sat 11/1 Virginia at California
Sat 11/8 Virginia vs Wake Forest
Sat 11/15 Virginia at Duke
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Virginia vs Virginia Tech
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/16 North Carolina at California
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

UVA's OC Des Kitchings vs UNC's DC Stephen Belichick     UNC's OC Freddie Kitchens vs UVA's DC John Rudzinski

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA#102 (.13)40% (103)22.743% (76)3.29 (26)13337% (113)2293.47 (106)#116 (.27)43% (80)28.844% (77)42% (77)4.04 (95)45.31.61.3
UNC#65 (.2)42% (79)30.947% (35)3.32 (23)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#71 (.17)41% (54)28.144% (83)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Offense1222.726.740%3.471.6193621332293.748%52%43%37%18%.13
UNC Defense1328.133.440.5%4.011.2 - - - - - 53%46%44%37%15%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Defense1228.832.242.6%4.041.3 - - - - - 49%50%44%42%15%.27
UNC Offense1330.93642%4.081.2203911752164.952%47%47%37%15%.2

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Virginia1229:5319.334%52%5.245.31.61.34.81.8029.5
North Carolina1327:4220.240%50%6.859.81.21.25.22.8629.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Offense1248% (84)43% (76)35.9132.83.714 (98).16 (50)3.29 (26)73% (77)11% (98)0.91 (93)
UNC Defense1353% (92)44% (83) - - - - .16 (88)3.39 (121)86% (130)9% (83)0.89 (30)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Defense1249% (53)44% (77) - - - - .17 (91)3.29 (112)77% (89)9% (104)0.99 (69)
UNC Offense1352% (52)47% (35)35.9175.24.926 (36).26 (14)3.32 (23)70% (89)9% (54)1.06 (36)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Offense1252% (52)37% (113)20.533.42296.911.216 (87)14 (115).11 (121)1.5 (86)33% (101)26% (115).17 (120)7% (100)1.7 (129)
UNC Defense1346% (38)37% (26) - - - - - - 9 (76).22 (63)1.8 (125)32% (67)26% (12).23 (35)5% (103)2.2 (99)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Defense1250% (82)42% (77) - - - - - - 9 (76).37 (121)1.6 (85)32% (68)32% (84).43 (110)6% (69)2.1 (81)
UNC Offense1347% (83)37% (114)16.829215.97.512.817 (79)8 (40).17 (101)1.7 (29)32% (75)29% (94).32 (79)6% (60)2.1 (33)

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -0.43 #76
Virginia's Offense Rating: 14.82 #59
Virginia's Defense Rating: 15.25 #77
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Virginia's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.8 #82
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #91
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.1 #80

Virginia's SP+ Ratings
Virginia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.8 #82
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #91
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.1 #80

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 825.88
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -0.43   North Carolina: 4.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -4.8   North Carolina: 4.6




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 4.2 #61
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 14.28 #67
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 12.08 #60
2025 Talent Rating: 828.00 #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 20 #26
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2

North Carolina's SP+ Ratings
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.6 #43
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #33
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #60

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 825.88
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93


Virginia Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.2

Virginia's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 30
Virginia 25

Projected Total Points: 55
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.4

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Virginia14North Carolina41North CarolinaVirginia -3.5North Carolina58.5Under
202310/21North Carolina27Virginia31VirginiaNorth Carolina -24Virginia58.0Push
202211/05Virginia28North Carolina31North CarolinaNorth Carolina -7Virginia61.5Under
202109/18North Carolina59Virginia39North CarolinaNorth Carolina -7.5North Carolina67.0Over
202010/31Virginia44North Carolina41VirginiaNorth Carolina -7.0Virginia0
201911/02North Carolina31Virginia38VirginiaVirginia -1Virginia48.0Over
201810/27Virginia31North Carolina21VirginiaVirginia -7.5Virginia51.0Over
201710/14North Carolina14Virginia20VirginiaVirginia -3Virginia54.5Under
201610/22Virginia14North Carolina35North CarolinaNorth Carolina -9North Carolina68.5Under
201510/24North Carolina26Virginia13North CarolinaNorth Carolina -12North Carolina58.0Under
201410/25Virginia27North Carolina28North CarolinaVirginia -7.5North Carolina0
201311/09North Carolina45Virginia14North CarolinaNorth Carolina -14North Carolina0
201211/15Virginia13North Carolina37North Carolina
201109/17North Carolina28Virginia17North Carolina
201010/16Virginia10North Carolina44North Carolina
200910/03North Carolina3Virginia16Virginia
200810/18Virginia16North Carolina13Virginia
200709/15North Carolina20Virginia22Virginia
200610/19Virginia23North Carolina0Virginia
200510/22North Carolina7Virginia5North Carolina
200409/11Virginia56North Carolina24Virginia
200310/04North Carolina13Virginia38Virginia
200210/19Virginia37North Carolina27Virginia
200110/13North Carolina30Virginia24North Carolina
200010/27Virginia17North Carolina6Virginia
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina1263 Overs
Virginia1365 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 126 - 64 - 32 - 3
Road Teams12 - 136 - 63 - 23 - 4

(#76) Virginia Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.43 #76
Offense Rating: 14.82 #59
Defense Rating: 15.25 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.8 #82
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #91
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.1 #80
Talent Rating: 756.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2

Virginia     Ratings Matchup     North Carolina
Power #76
#61
Off #59
#67
Def #77
#60
Talent #58
#36
SP+ #82
#43
SP+ Off #91
#33
SP+ Def #80
#60

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Virginia last year (41-14)
Virginia beat North Carolina in 2023 (31-27)
North Carolina beat Virginia in 2022 (31-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UVA | UNC
Depth Chart: UVA | UNC
Rosters: UVA | UNC
(#61) North Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.2 #61
Offense Rating: 14.28 #67
Defense Rating: 12.08 #60
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.6 #43
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #33
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #60
Talent Rating: 828.00 #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 20 #26
Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2





  
Virginia's OC Des Kitchings
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chandler Morris32250963%377431127.4
Suderian Harrison11100%270027.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier Brown8048816.175
Chandler Morris6024244.049
Noah Vaughn3612003.313
Cameron Ross456014.041
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Ross37443312.043
Jahmal Edrine23365215.953
Trell Harris15221214.745
Jayden Thomas1816729.323
North Carolina's OC Freddie Kitchens
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ryan Browne437657%532427.0
Max Johnson121963%71013.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Davion Gause6732644.921
Ryan Browne5015503.123
Charleston French108418.445
Aziah Johnson115015.015
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Aziah Johnson16276217.352
Christian Hamilton7159122.758
Chris Culliver6135122.550
Jordan Shipp9114112.722

Virginia's DC John Rudzinski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kamren Robinson646521
Trey McDonald573111
Jermarian Jackson551106
Fisher Camac4615815
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Fisher Camac4615815
Kamren Robinson646521
James Jackson455220
Mitchell Melton124210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jermarian Jackson551106
Fisher Camac4615815
Caleb Hardy82102
North Carolina's DC Stephen Belichick
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Cost613104
Gavin Gibson527013
Thaddeus Dixon4320010
Beau Atkinson3512840
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Beau Atkinson3512840
Pryce Yates217451
C.J. Mims214100
Cade Law21100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Thaddeus Dixon4320010
Kaleb Cost613104
Khmori House331014