North Carolina at NC State Game Matchup
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at NC State WolfpackNC State logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Carter-Finley Stadium - Raleigh, NC  (ACC)

 
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (27 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#45)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)
NCST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: NC State -6    (SP+ -0)
PPG only: UNC: 31 - NCST: 28 (59)
UNC Win prob: 49% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 20 miles
Wolfpack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#47)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
 
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/16 North Carolina at California
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Thu 8/28 NC State vs East Carolina
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina
Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

UNC's OC Freddie Kitchens vs NCST's DC D. J. Eliot     NCST's OC Kurt Roper vs UNC's DC Stephen Belichick

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (79)30.947% (35)3.32 (23)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#71 (.17)41% (54)28.144% (83)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
NCST#28 (.25)45% (36)28.544% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (21)2153.97 (62)#86 (.19)41% (59)30.239% (30)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NCST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1330.927.242%4.081.2203911752164.952%47%47%37%15%.2
NCST Defense1330.224.740.9%3.781.4 - - - - - 47%53%39%43%20%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1328.120.840.5%4.011.2 - - - - - 53%46%44%37%15%.17
NCST Offense1328.53145.1%3.971.7193451302154.447%52%44%47%19%.25

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1327:4220.240%50%6.859.81.21.25.22.8629.1
NC State1329:1018.637%56%4.8451.71.46.21.8228.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1352% (52)47% (35)35.9175.24.926 (36).26 (14)3.32 (23)70% (89)9% (54)1.06 (36)
NCST Defense1347% (33)39% (30) - - - - .2 (109)3.07 (83)76% (87)12% (24)1.28 (134)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1353% (92)44% (83) - - - - .16 (88)3.39 (121)86% (130)9% (83)0.89 (30)
NCST Offense1347% (89)44% (68)29.6130.34.421 (59).15 (56)3.24 (36)69% (92)13% (126)0.98 (60)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1347% (83)37% (114)16.829215.97.512.817 (79)8 (40).17 (101)1.7 (29)32% (75)29% (94).32 (79)6% (60)2.1 (33)
NCST Defense1353% (106)43% (87) - - - - - - 8 (93).19 (47)1.5 (22)33% (50)30% (65).33 (83)8% (16)2.3 (120)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1346% (38)37% (26) - - - - - - 9 (76).22 (63)1.8 (125)32% (67)26% (12).23 (35)5% (103)2.2 (99)
NCST Offense1352% (48)47% (21)18.228.1214.87.711.818 (68)12 (85).36 (24)1.6 (45)30% (35)36% (24).57 (5)6% (82)2.2 (19)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 2.20 #61
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 14.28 #67
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 12.08 #60
2025 Talent Rating: 828.00 #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 20% #26
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.6 #43
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #33
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #60

North Carolina's SP+ Ratings
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.6 #43
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #33
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #60

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 825.88
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 2.20   NC State: 8.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 4.6   NC State: 4.5




NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 8.24 #52
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.95 #43
NC State's Defense Rating: 12.71 #63
2025 Talent Rating: 788.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #37
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3

NC State's SP+ Ratings
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #45
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #31
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #63

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 825.88
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 31
NC State 28

Projected Total Points: 59
NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30North Carolina30NC State35NC StateNorth Carolina -2.5NC State54.5Over
202311/25NC State39North Carolina20NC StateNorth Carolina -2NC State55.0Over
202211/25North Carolina27NC State30NC StateNorth Carolina -6.5NC State56.0Over
202111/26NC State34North Carolina30NC StateNC State -6.5North Carolina62.0Over
202010/24North Carolina48NC State21North CarolinaNorth Carolina -15.0North Carolina62.0Over
201911/30NC State10North Carolina41North CarolinaNorth Carolina -11North Carolina57.0Under
201811/24North Carolina28NC State34NC StateNC State -7.5North Carolina61.5Over
201711/25NC State33North Carolina21NC StateNC State -14.5North Carolina57.0Under
201611/25North Carolina21NC State28NC StateNorth Carolina -10NC State63.0Under
201511/28NC State34North Carolina45North CarolinaNorth Carolina -6North Carolina65.0Over
201411/29North Carolina7NC State35NC StateNorth Carolina -6NC State0
201311/02NC State19North Carolina27North CarolinaNorth Carolina -3North Carolina0
201210/27North Carolina43NC State35North Carolina
201111/05NC State13North Carolina0NC State
201011/20North Carolina25NC State29NC State
200911/28NC State28North Carolina27NC State
200811/22North Carolina10NC State41NC State
200711/10NC State31North Carolina27NC State
200611/18North Carolina23NC State9North Carolina
200509/24NC State24North Carolina31North Carolina
200410/09North Carolina30NC State24North Carolina
200309/27NC State47North Carolina34NC State
200210/12North Carolina17NC State34NC State
200109/29NC State9North Carolina17North Carolina
200010/13North Carolina20NC State38NC State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
NC State1657 Overs
North Carolina973 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 143 - 91 - 62 - 3
Road Teams14 - 119 - 33 - 26 - 1

(#61) North Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.20 #61
Offense Rating: 14.28 #67
Defense Rating: 12.08 #60
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.6 #43
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #33
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #60
Talent Rating: 828.00 #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 20% #26
Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2

North Carolina     Ratings Matchup     NC State
Power #61
#52
Off #67
#43
Def #60
#63
Talent #36
#47
SP+ #43
#45
SP+ Off #33
#31
SP+ Def #60
#63

Previous Matchups
NC State beat North Carolina last year (35-30)
NC State beat North Carolina in 2023 (39-20)
NC State beat North Carolina in 2022 (30-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNC | NCST
Depth Chart: UNC | NCST
Rosters: UNC | NCST
(#52) NC State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 8.24 #52
Offense Rating: 18.95 #43
Defense Rating: 12.71 #63
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #31
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #63
Talent Rating: 788.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #37
Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3





  
North Carolina's OC Freddie Kitchens
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ryan Browne437657%532427.0
Max Johnson121963%71013.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Davion Gause6732644.921
Ryan Browne5015503.123
Charleston French108418.445
Aziah Johnson115015.015
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Aziah Johnson16276217.352
Christian Hamilton7159122.758
Chris Culliver6135122.550
Jordan Shipp9114112.722
NC State's OC Kurt Roper
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey19630265%241217108.0
Lex Thomas5863%65118.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers8957166.453
Kendrick Raphael7842535.440
CJ Bailey9927952.831
Lex Thomas1909.09
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Justin Joly43661415.440
Noah Rogers35478113.775
Wesley Grimes24319113.330
Dacari Collins24314213.143

North Carolina's DC Stephen Belichick
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Cost613104
Gavin Gibson527013
Thaddeus Dixon4320010
Beau Atkinson3512840
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Beau Atkinson3512840
Pryce Yates217451
C.J. Mims214100
Cade Law21100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Thaddeus Dixon4320010
Kaleb Cost613104
Khmori House331014
NC State's DC D. J. Eliot
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sean Brown9593131
Jeremiah Johnson691016
Kamal Bonner567160
Caden Fordham504162
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Travali Price379430
Sean Brown9593131
Tra Thomas285210
Kamal Bonner567160
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall331007
Jeremiah Johnson691016
Caden Fordham504162