North Carolina at UCF Game Matchup

Saturday, September 20th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Bright House Networks Stadium - Orlando, FL

Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (27 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#45)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)

UCF coming off BYE
Our Line: North Carolina -1.5 (SP+ -3.5)
PPG only: UNC: 29 - UCF: 29 (58)
UNC Win prob: 49% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 520 miles

Knights (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (19 - 7)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (33 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 6.7 (#60)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Mon 9/1	North Carolina vs TCU
Sat 9/6	North Carolina at Charlotte
Sat 9/13	North Carolina vs Richmond
Sat 9/20	North Carolina at UCF
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	North Carolina vs Clemson
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/16	North Carolina at California
Sat 10/25	North Carolina vs Virginia
Fri 10/31	North Carolina at Syracuse
Sat 11/8	North Carolina vs Stanford
Sat 11/15	North Carolina at Wake Forest
Sat 11/22	North Carolina vs Duke
Sat 11/29	North Carolina at NC State

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

UCF's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Thu 8/28	UCF vs Jacksonville State
Sat 9/6	UCF vs North Carolina A&T
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	UCF vs North Carolina
Sat 9/27	UCF at Kansas State
Sat 10/4	UCF vs Kansas
Sat 10/11	UCF at Cincinnati
Sat 10/18	UCF vs West Virginia
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	UCF at Baylor
Sat 11/8	UCF vs Houston
Sat 11/15	UCF at Texas Tech
Sat 11/22	UCF vs Oklahoma State
Sat 11/29	UCF at BYU

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

UNC's OC Freddie Kitchens vs UCF's DC Alex Grinch UCF's OC Steve Cooper vs UNC's DC Stephen Belichick

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (79)	30.9	47% (35)	3.32 (23)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#71 (.17)	41% (54)	28.1	44% (83)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (29)	30.4	52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (85)	#63 (.16)	40% (47)	26.9	37% (13)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	13	30.9	27.2	42%	4.08	1.2	20	391	175	216	4.9	52%	47%	47%	37%	15%	.2
UCF Defense	12	26.9	23	39.9%	4.37	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	42%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	13	28.1	20.8	40.5%	4.01	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	44%	37%	15%	.17
UCF Offense	12	30.4	32.9	46.1%	3.75	1.6	24	448	248	200	5.8	58%	41%	52%	38%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	13	27:42	20.2	40%	50%	6.8	59.8	1.2	1.2	5.2	2.8	6	29.1
UCF	12	28:19	23.6	42%	54%	6.5	54.4	1.6	0.9	6.9	1.8	1	30.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	13	52% (52)	47% (35)	35.9	175.2	4.9	26 (36)	.26 (14)	3.32 (23)	70% (89)	9% (54)	1.06 (36)
UCF Defense	12	50% (54)	37% (13)	-	-	-	-	.07 (38)	2.57 (13)	79% (106)	12% (28)	1.03 (90)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	13	53% (92)	44% (83)	-	-	-	-	.16 (88)	3.39 (121)	86% (130)	9% (83)	0.89 (30)
UCF Offense	12	58% (16)	52% (8)	43	248.1	5.8	33 (12)	.31 (7)	3.62 (2)	72% (80)	10% (67)	1.13 (12)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	13	47% (83)	37% (114)	16.8	29	215.9	7.5	12.8	17 (79)	8 (40)	.17 (101)	1.7 (29)	32% (75)	29% (94)	.32 (79)	6% (60)	2.1 (33)
UCF Defense	12	50% (81)	42% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.26 (82)	1.6 (64)	36% (16)	30% (67)	.38 (98)	5% (118)	2.2 (117)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	13	46% (38)	37% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.22 (63)	1.8 (125)	32% (67)	26% (12)	.23 (35)	5% (103)	2.2 (99)
UCF Offense	12	41% (120)	38% (103)	15.1	25.8	199.7	7.7	13.2	14 (108)	11 (72)	.1 (123)	1.6 (77)	29% (33)	33% (54)	.16 (122)	5% (47)	1.8 (126)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 2.20 #61
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 14.28 #67
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 12.08 #60
2025 Talent Rating: 828.00 #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 20% #26
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.6 #43
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #33
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #60

North Carolina's SP+ Ratings
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.6 #43
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #33
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #60

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 825.88
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 2.20 UCF: 0.82

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 4.6 UCF: 1.3

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 0.82 #79
UCF's Offense Rating: 13.70 #72
UCF's Defense Rating: 14.88 #75
2025 Talent Rating: 710.00 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #25
UCF's 2025 Expected Record: 5.3 - 6.7

UCF's SP+ Ratings
UCF's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.3 #56
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #63
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #56

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 774.38
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 29
UCF 29

Projected Total Points: 58

UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.9
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

UCF's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	0	0	0 Overs
North Carolina	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#61) North Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.20 #61
Offense Rating: 14.28 #67
Defense Rating: 12.08 #60
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.6 #43
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #33
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #60
Talent Rating: 828.00 #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 20% #26
Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2

North Carolina Ratings Matchup UCF

Power #61

#79

Off #67

#72

Def #60

#75

Talent #36

#70

SP+ #43

#56

SP+ Off #33

#63

SP+ Def #60

#56

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNC | UCF
Depth Chart: UNC | UCF
Rosters: UNC | UCF

(#79) UCF Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.82 #79
Offense Rating: 13.70 #72
Defense Rating: 14.88 #75
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.3 #56
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #63
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #56
Talent Rating: 710.00 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #25
Expected Record: 5.3 - 6.7

North Carolina's OC Freddie Kitchens

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ryan Browne	43	76	57%	532	4	2	7.0
Max Johnson	12	19	63%	71	0	1	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davion Gause	67	326	4	4.9	21
Ryan Browne	50	155	0	3.1	23
Charleston French	10	84	1	8.4	45
Aziah Johnson	1	15	0	15.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Aziah Johnson	16	276	2	17.3	52
Christian Hamilton	7	159	1	22.7	58
Chris Culliver	6	135	1	22.5	50
Jordan Shipp	9	114	1	12.7	22

UCF's OC Steve Cooper

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cam Fancher	126	212	59%	1528	6	6	7.2
Dylan Rizk	73	118	62%	915	5	2	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Nixon	132	874	12	6.6	92
Jacurri Brown	53	401	4	7.6	67
Cam Fancher	99	365	3	3.7	76
Myles Montgomery	51	293	3	5.7	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Wade	29	374	2	12.9	44
Jaden Nixon	9	74	0	8.2	16
Marcus Burke	8	69	2	8.6	20
Myles Montgomery	3	66	1	22.0	49

North Carolina's DC Stephen Belichick

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kaleb Cost	61	3	1	0	4
Gavin Gibson	52	7	0	1	3
Thaddeus Dixon	43	2	0	0	10
Beau Atkinson	35	12	8	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Atkinson	35	12	8	4	0
Pryce Yates	21	7	4	5	1
C.J. Mims	21	4	1	0	0
Cade Law	2	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Thaddeus Dixon	43	2	0	0	10
Kaleb Cost	61	3	1	0	4
Khmori House	33	1	0	1	4

UCF's DC Alex Grinch

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly	53	10	6	1	1
Phillip Dunnam	48	3	0	1	4
Keli Lawson	40	2	0	0	4
R.J. Jackson	35	4	3	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly	53	10	6	1	1
Malachi Lawrence	15	6	5	4	1
R.J. Jackson	35	4	3	0	2
Sincere Edwards	17	6	3	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jayden Bellamy	34	1	6
DJ Bell	16	0	5
Keli Lawson	40	2	4