New Mexico State at Liberty Game Matchup
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty FlamesLiberty logo
Tuesday, October 14th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Williams Stadium - Lynchburg, VA  (Conference USA)

 
Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (13 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#58)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
NMSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Liberty -20.5    (SP+ -16)
PPG only: NMSU: 23 - LIB: 33 (56)
NMSU Win prob: 49% | Cover: 49%
NMSU Travel: 1597 miles, 2 hrs behind
Flames (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 4)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (32 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 2.3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 10)
 
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/30 New Mexico State vs Bryant
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/30 Liberty vs Maine
Sat 9/6 Liberty at Jacksonville State
Sat 9/13 Liberty at Bowling Green
Sat 9/20 Liberty vs James Madison
Sat 9/27 Liberty at Old Dominion
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Liberty at UTEP
Tue 10/14 Liberty vs New Mexico State
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Liberty vs Delaware
Sat 11/8 Liberty vs Missouri State
Sat 11/15 Liberty vs Florida International
Sat 11/22 Liberty at Louisiana Tech
Sat 11/29 Liberty vs Kennesaw State
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

NMSU's OC Tyler Wright vs LIB's DC Skylor Magee     LIB's OC Newland Isaac vs NMSU's DC Joe Morris

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)21.646% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (65)36.343% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
LIB#26 (.26)50% (7)28.854% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)23.539% (29)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1221.612.639.3%3.81.9193221791434.458%42%46%30%18%.08
LIB Defense1223.522.339.4%3.681.3 - - - - - 55%45%39%40%16%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1236.338.441.3%3.70.8 - - - - - 50%50%43%40%12%.26
LIB Offense1228.832.349.9%4.211.3224002381615.763%36%54%43%14%.26

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1229:2619.338%38%5.448.11.90.83.81.2127
Liberty1228:4222.145%50%6.764.41.31.351.6028.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1258% (20)46% (41)41.3179.34.416 (90).11 (82)3.33 (21)77% (37)11% (103)0.98 (62)
LIB Defense1255% (115)39% (29) - - - - .02 (20)2.68 (21)73% (62)10% (59)0.99 (68)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1250% (55)43% (69) - - - - .18 (98)3.17 (92)58% (5)7% (134)1.04 (95)
LIB Offense1263% (5)54% (2)41.8238.35.728 (25).25 (16)3.56 (7)76% (46)9% (43)0.91 (95)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1242% (116)30% (132)11.826.7143.25.412.212 (118)12 (85).05 (128)1.8 (17)33% (100)30% (88).13 (131)7% (104)1.7 (132)
LIB Defense1245% (19)40% (66) - - - - - - 8 (93).21 (51)1.6 (77)32% (74)31% (81).18 (17)6% (83)1.8 (9)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1250% (75)40% (68) - - - - - - 9 (76).36 (118)1.9 (132)31% (80)29% (40).42 (107)6% (79)2.3 (126)
LIB Offense1236% (130)43% (60)12.622.3161.27.212.815 (98)6 (10).27 (57)1.5 (104)24% (2)36% (23).43 (27)5% (35)1.9 (107)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -18.11 #119
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 4.84 #115
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 22.95 #114
2025 Talent Rating: 264.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #47
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.9 #118
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #106
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #119

New Mexico State's SP+ Ratings
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.9 #118
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #106
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 371.82
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -18.11   Liberty: 2.48

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -14.9   Liberty: 1.1




Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 2.48 #68
Liberty's Offense Rating: 14.32 #66
Liberty's Defense Rating: 13.84 #70
2025 Talent Rating: 572.00 #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 2.3

Liberty's SP+ Ratings
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1 #59
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #60
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #59

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 371.82
Average Power Five Talent: 862.84
Average FBS Talent: 688.93


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.6
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.4

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 33
New Mexico State 23

Projected Total Points: 56
Liberty Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07New Mexico State24Liberty30LibertyLiberty -22.5New Mexico State54.5Under
202309/09Liberty33New Mexico State17LibertyLiberty -9Liberty54.5Under
202312/01Liberty49New Mexico State35LibertyLiberty -10.5Liberty54.0Over
202211/26Liberty14New Mexico State49New Mexico StateLiberty -24.0New Mexico State51.0Over
201910/05New Mexico State13Liberty20LibertyLiberty -4.5Liberty62.5Under
201911/30Liberty49New Mexico State28LibertyLiberty -14.5Liberty68.0Over
201810/06New Mexico State49Liberty41New Mexico StateLiberty -3New Mexico State64.0Over
201811/24Liberty28New Mexico State21LibertyLiberty -7Push72.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Liberty644 Overs
New Mexico State234 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 35 - 23 - 12 - 1
Road Teams3 - 52 - 51 - 21 - 3

(#119) New Mexico State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -18.11 #119
Offense Rating: 4.84 #115
Defense Rating: 22.95 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.9 #118
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #119
Talent Rating: 264.00 #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #47
Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5

New Mexico State     Ratings Matchup     Liberty
Power #119
#68
Off #115
#66
Def #114
#70
Talent #125
#91
SP+ #118
#59
SP+ Off #106
#60
SP+ Def #119
#59

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat New Mexico State last year (30-24)
Liberty beat New Mexico State in 2023 (49-35)
New Mexico State beat Liberty in 2022 (49-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NMSU | LIB
Depth Chart: NMSU | LIB
Rosters: NMSU | LIB
(#68) Liberty Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.48 #68
Offense Rating: 14.32 #66
Defense Rating: 13.84 #70
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1 #59
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #59
Talent Rating: 572.00 #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 9.7 - 2.3





  
New Mexico State's OC Tyler Wright
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Parker Awad7415947%1079746.8
Santino Marucci4911244%519354.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan15381335.338
Santino Marucci3713113.538
Larenzo McMillan7111115.984
Parker Awad6010911.825
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Pride34374211.053
Glynn Johnson Jr19346218.254
Seth McGowan23277312.043
Tyler King17236013.936
Liberty's OC Newland Isaac
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Vasko14827155%21201487.8
Ryan Burger81942%88004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ethan Vasko10744754.229
Vaughn Blue3520715.945
Ryan Burger177014.157
Julian Gray106216.241
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamari Person35373110.760
Elijah Canion25354314.250
Reese Smith18277415.444
Tyson Mobley2927619.525

New Mexico State's DC Joe Morris
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Da'Marcus Crosby812003
Sone Aupiu554025
Dakerric Hobbs363016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Malaki Ta'ase332152
Justin Beadles204110
Gabe Peterson61100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dakerric Hobbs363016
Sone Aupiu554025
Nicolas Sessions301003
Liberty's DC Skylor Magee
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joseph Carter885203
T.J. Bush5810614
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
A'Khori Jones535003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush5810614
CJ Bazile Jr.545220
Joseph Carter885203
Brenton Williams154101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush5810614
Joseph Carter885203
A'Khori Jones535003