Baylor at UCF Game Matchup

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
UCF -8 (56.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Baylor 36 - UCF: 35 (Big 12)

Bears (3 - 9) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Aranda (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (32 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.5 - 8.5 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Heavy Rain Shower Predicted
Our Line: UCF -13.5 (SP+ -13)
PPG only: BAY: 31 - UCF: 29 (60)
UCF Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
BAY Travel: 973 miles, 1 hrs behind

Knights (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (21 - 9)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (33 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Off Players
Def Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Baylor's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Sat 9/2	Baylor vs Texas State	-26.5	58.5	L 31 - 42
Sat 9/9	Baylor vs Utah	+7.0	46.5	L 13 - 20
Sat 9/16	Baylor vs Long Island University	-44.0	54.0	W 30 - 7
Sat 9/23	Baylor vs Texas	+17.5	49.5	L 6 - 38
Sat 9/30	Baylor at UCF	+8.0	56.5	W 36 - 35
Sat 10/7	Baylor vs Texas Tech	+2.5	59.5	L 14 - 39
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Baylor at Cincinnati	+2.5	51.5	W 32 - 29
Sat 10/28	Baylor vs Iowa State	+3.0	47.0	L 18 - 30
Sat 11/4	Baylor vs Houston	-3.0	58.5	L 24 - 25
Sat 11/11	Baylor at Kansas State	+20.5	55.5	L 25 - 59
Sat 11/18	Baylor at TCU	+13.0	62.0	L 17 - 42
Sat 11/25	Baylor vs West Virginia	+6.5	53.5	L 31 - 34

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

UCF's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
Thu 8/31	UCF vs Kent State	-35.0	54.0	W 56 - 6
Sat 9/9	UCF at Boise State	-3.0	58.5	W 18 - 16
Sat 9/16	UCF vs Villanova	-26.5	54.0	W 48 - 14
Sat 9/23	UCF at Kansas State	+6.0	53.5	L 31 - 44
Sat 9/30	UCF vs Baylor	-8.0	56.5	L 35 - 36
Sat 10/7	UCF at Kansas	-2.0	65.0	L 22 - 51
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	UCF at Oklahoma	+17.0	67.5	L 29 - 31
Sat 10/28	UCF vs West Virginia	-6.5	59.5	L 28 - 41
Sat 11/4	UCF at Cincinnati	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 26
Sat 11/11	UCF vs Oklahoma State	+2.5	63.5	W 45 - 3
Sat 11/18	UCF at Texas Tech	+2.0	59.0	L 23 - 24
Sat 11/25	UCF vs Houston	-15.5	61.5	W 27 - 13
Fri 12/22	UCF vs Georgia Tech	-6.0	66.5	L 17 - 30

BAY's OC Jeff Grimes vs UCF's DC David Gibbs UCF's OC Darin Hinshaw vs BAY's DC Matt Powledge

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY	.22	45%	34.4	47%	3.21	182	44%	231	4.35	.2	45%	26.7	45%	44%	4.12	41	1.4	1.5
UCF	.24	47%	30.4	51%	3.38	228	44%	241	4.08	.21	41%	26.9	40%	43%	3.53	46.4	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Offense	13	34.4	32	45.1%	4.35	1.4	23	414	182	231	4.4	55%	44%	47%	44%	13%	.22
UCF Defense	14	26.9	23	41.2%	3.53	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	43%	16%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BAY Defense	13	26.7	30.7	44.7%	4.12	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	44%	16%	.2
UCF Offense	14	30.4	32.9	47.4%	4.08	1.5	24	469	228	241	5.2	53%	46%	51%	44%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Baylor	13	31:30	22.7	40%	64%	4.8	41	1.4	1.5	4.6	1.8	2	30.2
UCF	14	30:51	24.2	46%	63%	4.9	46.4	1.5	1.5	5	1.5	2	28

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Offense	13	55%	47%	41.2	182.4	4.4	34	.21	3.21	79%	9%	1.08
UCF Defense	14	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.16	2.95	66%	10%	1.12

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BAY Defense	13	51%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.05	76%	8%	0.88
UCF Offense	14	53%	51%	43.9	228	5.2	35	.29	3.38	73%	10%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Offense	13	44%	44%	19	30.2	231.5	7.7	12.2	19	11	.29	1.5	30%	33%	.34	4%	2
UCF Defense	14	49%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.3	1.5	33%	30%	.29	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BAY Defense	13	49%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.28	1.5	29%	37%	.51	7%	2
UCF Offense	14	46%	44%	20.8	32.2	241.2	7.5	11.6	22	9	.21	1.4	27%	32%	.27	4%	1.9

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: -7.95 #108
Baylor's Offense Rating: 13.22 #99
Baylor's Defense Rating: 17.47 #127
2023 Talent Rating: 696.00 #49
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Baylor's 2023 Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105

Baylor's SP+ Ratings
Baylor's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 676
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Baylor: -7.95 UCF: 5.43

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Baylor: -8.8 UCF: 4.5

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 5.43 #46
UCF's Offense Rating: 22.78 #23
UCF's Defense Rating: 11.34 #89
2023 Talent Rating: 574.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #53
UCF's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60

UCF's SP+ Ratings
UCF's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #48
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 676
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 32
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Baylor's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Baylor 31
UCF 29

Projected Total Points: 60

UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.9
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

UCF's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/30	UCF	35	Baylor	36	Baylor	UCF -8	Baylor	56.5	Over
2013	01/01	Baylor	42	UCF	52	UCF	Baylor -17	UCF	74.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	1	1	2 Overs
Baylor	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0

(#108) Baylor Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.95 #108
Offense Rating: 13.22 #99
Defense Rating: 17.47 #127
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105
Talent Rating: 696.00 #49
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Expected Record: 3.50 - 8.50

Baylor Ratings Matchup UCF

Power #108

#46

Off #99

#23

Def #127

#89

Talent #49

#77

SP+ #98

#48

SP+ Off #78

#35

SP+ Def #105

#54

Rematch from Week 5
UCF -8.0 (56.5)
Baylor won at UCF this year (36-35)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat UCF in 2023 (36-35)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain Shower
Temp: 86° - Wind: 11 mph
Rain: 0.043

Team Information
Injuries: BAY | UCF
Depth Chart: BAY | UCF
Rosters: BAY | UCF

(#46) UCF Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 5.43 #46
Offense Rating: 22.78 #23
Defense Rating: 11.34 #89
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #48
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #54
Talent Rating: 574.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #53
Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60

Baylor's OC Jeff Grimes

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

UCF's OC Darin Hinshaw

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Baylor's DC Matt Powledge

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UCF's DC David Gibbs

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD