Air Force at Baylor Game Matchup
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Saturday, September 14th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Baylor -17.5 (40.5) (-900)  Open: -15.5 | 43.5
Baylor 31 - Air Force: 3

 
Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Temp: 92.5° (43% Hum)
Our Line: Baylor -37    (SP+ -20)
PPG only: AFA: 23 - BAY: 29 (52)
BAY Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
AFA Travel: 673 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bears (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (23 - 25)
Avg Score : 34 - 27 (37 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Air Force's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/31 Air Force vs Merrimack-30.547.5W 21 - 6
Sat 9/7 Air Force vs San José State-1.543.5L 7 - 17
Sat 9/14 Air Force at Baylor+17.540.5L 3 - 31
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Air Force at Wyoming-4.033.5L 19 - 31
Sat 10/5 Air Force vs Navy+10.037.0L 7 - 34
Sat 10/12 Air Force at New Mexico+7.056.0L 37 - 52
Sat 10/19 Air Force vs Colorado State+6.043.5L 13 - 21
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Air Force at Army+18.038.5L 3 - 20
Sat 11/9 Air Force vs Fresno State+9.540.5W 36 - 28
Sat 11/16 Air Force vs Oregon State+3.044.5W 28 - 0
Sat 11/23 Air Force at Nevada+3.044.5W 22 - 19
Sat 11/30 Air Force at San Diego State-6.543.5W 31 - 20
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Baylor's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResult
Sat 8/31 Baylor vs Tarleton State-33.553.5W 45 - 3
Sat 9/7 Baylor at Utah+14.552.5L 12 - 23
Sat 9/14 Baylor vs Air Force-17.540.5W 31 - 3
Sat 9/21 Baylor at Colorado+2.552.5L 31 - 38
Sat 9/28 Baylor vs BYU-3.047.0L 28 - 34
Sat 10/5 Baylor at Iowa State+13.045.0L 21 - 43
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Baylor at Texas Tech+4.556.0W 59 - 35
Sat 10/26 Baylor vs Oklahoma State-7.064.5W 38 - 28
Sat 11/2 Baylor vs TCU-2.564.0W 37 - 34
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Baylor at West Virginia-2.060.0W 49 - 35
Sat 11/23 Baylor at Houston-7.051.0W 20 - 10
Sat 11/30 Baylor vs Kansas+2.562.5W 45 - 17
Tue 12/31 Baylor vs LSU-3.062.5L 31 - 44
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen vs BAY's DC Matt Powledge     BAY's OC Jake Spavital vs AFA's DC Brian Knorr

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#26 (.28)45% (31)18.946% (34)3.48 (8)28141% (74)854.05 (52)#28 (.12)39% (38)23.337% (16)42% (79)3.96 (85)24.81.31.1
BAY#90 (.15)39% (102)34.440% (107)2.99 (91)11539% (90)2633.12 (118)#130 (.32)46% (118)26.746% (98)47% (123)4.36 (116)28.91.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BAY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1318.919.245.5%4.051.320366281855.185%14%46%41%9%.28
BAY Defense1226.719.845.7%4.361.3 - - - - - 54%45%46%47%17%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1323.328.839.3%3.961.1 - - - - - 49%50%37%42%14%.12
BAY Offense1234.437.339.5%3.121.3203781152633.346%54%40%39%18%.15

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1333:2619.646%68%324.81.31.14.52230.6
Baylor1231:4219.836%46%4.128.91.31.351.5228.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1385% (1)46% (34)54.7280.65.136 (4).27 (14)3.48 (8)80% (19)8% (22)1.02 (56)
BAY Defense1254% (114)46% (98) - - - - .24 (115)3.27 (103)70% (51)11% (53)1.16 (121)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1349% (58)37% (16) - - - - .06 (26)2.67 (13)79% (106)9% (93)0.99 (61)
BAY Offense1246% (99)40% (107)34.4114.83.313 (108).09 (101)2.99 (91)74% (63)12% (103)1.03 (53)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1314% (133)41% (74)4.28.18510.520.17 (129)6 (14).51 (9)2.3 (1)23% (1)27% (93).39 (48)2% (1)2.3 (7)
BAY Defense1245% (21)47% (123) - - - - - - 7 (111).47 (131)1.7 (107)30% (101)38% (129).52 (130)6% (75)2.2 (102)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1350% (80)42% (79) - - - - - - 10 (67).21 (36)1.5 (19)34% (44)29% (45).34 (85)5% (103)2 (59)
BAY Offense1254% (31)39% (90)21.936.82637.11215 (96)7 (21).22 (90)1.6 (79)34% (109)26% (103).18 (111)6% (77)1.8 (123)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 198.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76

Air Force's SP+ Ratings
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -22.84   Baylor: 14.17

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.7   Baylor: 8.4




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 14.17 #22
Baylor's Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
2024 Talent Rating: 758.00 #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Baylor's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Baylor's SP+ Ratings
Baylor's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Baylor 29
Air Force 23

Projected Total Points: 52
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.3
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.8

Baylor's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Baylor31Air Force3BaylorBaylor -17.5Baylor40.5Under
202212/22Air Force30Baylor15Air ForceBaylor -3.5Air Force42.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor111 Overs
Air Force111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#125) Air Force Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Talent Rating: 198.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0


Air Force Notes
(11/18) Rgame mauled Oreg St. Hayes good, Def great
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
Air Force     Ratings Matchup     Baylor
Power #125
#22
Off #112
#20
Def #117
#30
Talent #131
#39
SP+ #111
#38
SP+ Off #120
#25
SP+ Def #76
#63

Rematch from Week 3
Baylor -17.5 (40.5)
Baylor won vs Air Force this year (31-3)

Previous Matchups
Baylor beat Air Force last year (31-3)
Air Force beat Baylor in 2022 (30-15)

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 93° - Wind: 6 mph


Team Information
Injuries: AFA | BAY
Depth Chart: AFA | BAY
Rosters: AFA | BAY
(#22) Baylor Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 14.17 #22
Offense Rating: 24.79 #20
Defense Rating: 5.51 #30
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #63
Talent Rating: 758.00 #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0


Baylor Notes
(12/28) Signed QB W White (4* Aub Fr)
(12/7) Missed B12 title game due to Col hail mary
(11/25) 5 str W's, Off awful vs Hou, Def forced 4 TOs
(11/18) QB Fynn was a disaster, Robertson v good
(11/18) 4 str W's, Off exp @ WVU, Run D bad but held on
(11/16) Aranda back in 2025 official after WVU W
(11/3) 3 big W's (TCU), Robertson good, Rgame V good
(11/3) Aranda done a good job, should stay/bowl




  
Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Busha297937%415155.3
Quentin Hayes254358%4553210.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Carson13860054.350
Quentin Hayes12646673.730
Owen Allen7733524.414
Cade Harris4827945.830
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris23368216.076
Quin Smith10207120.739
Jared Roznos5109021.852
Bruin Fleischmann5104020.843
Baylor's OC Jake Spavital
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson22936862%30712888.3
Dequan Finn234354%307327.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington1751028125.951
Dawson Pendergrass12167165.555
Richard Reese5824114.228
Sawyer Robertson6323043.745
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron527541014.547
Ashtyn Hawkins45567512.635
Monaray Baldwin27478517.746
Hal Presley31429313.853

Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Camby Goff673013
Jamari Bellamy643004
Osaro Aihie582201
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner508212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Santiago375423
Peyton Zdroik187330
Osaro Aihie582201
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner508212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamari Bellamy643004
Trey Williams311004
Camby Goff673013
Baylor's DC Matt Powledge
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones1019456
Keaton Thomas978420
Devyn Bobby753002
Jackie Marshall415250
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Jones1019456
Treven Ma'ae407431
Garmon Randolph335420
Keaton Thomas978420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lorando Johnson1310010
Matt Jones1019456
Caden Jenkins250004